Global diesel prices have risen sharply since late October as refinery outages, tightening sanctions on Russian oil, and disruptions to petroleum export facilities have reduced international supply and widened refinery margins, according to recent market data. Diesel crack spreads in key regions, including the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) hub, New York Harbor, and the U.S. Gulf Coast, increased to their highest levels of the year by late November as refiners and traders responded to constrained supply and higher product demand.
Crack spreads — a measure of the profitability of refining crude oil into products such as diesel — climbed above US$1 per gallon in all three major Atlantic Basin hubs for the first time in more than a year. The spreads began rising in mid-October and continued through mid-November, reflecting the market impact of reduced refinery output and shifting trade flows. Diesel crack spreads are calculated by subtracting the Brent crude spot price from the market price of diesel fuel.
The widening margins follow several supply-side disruptions. These include outages at refineries in Russia and the Middle East, new European Union (EU) sanctions targeting Russian crude oil and refined-product supply chains, and damage to Russian export facilities from military strikes. The combined effects have reduced global diesel availability and increased bidding competition among importers, contributing to rising prices in the Atlantic Basin and influencing markets in the United States, where refiners can sell into both domestic and foreign markets.
The most significant effects have been observed in the ARA region, a major benchmark for European refined-product prices. Reduced Russian diesel flows, along with outages elsewhere, tightened supply to Europe and pushed margins higher. New York Harbor and the U.S. Gulf Coast have experienced similar pressure, reflecting the integrated nature of global refinery markets and the ability of U.S. refiners to respond to higher international prices.
Sanctions tighten global diesel supply
The EU introduced additional sanctions against Russia in July and October 2025, restricting the activities of major Russian oil companies Rosneft, Lukoil, and Gazprom Neft. Those measures followed earlier sanctions introduced in late 2022 and early 2023, which banned the import of Russian crude oil and refined products such as diesel in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The latest restrictions extend the scope of previous bans by targeting refineries in Türkiye and India that process discounted Russian crude and export refined products to Europe.
The goal of the new sanctions is to limit the market value of Russian crude by reducing the ability of third-country refineries to re-enter that supply into the EU as diesel or other refined fuels. Industry analysts report that the restrictions have tightened available diesel supplies in Europe, pushing regional buyers to seek alternative volumes at higher market prices.
Disruptions from military strikes reduce Russian exports
Russian export capacity has also been affected by repeated Ukrainian strikes on refinery and petroleum export facilities. The attacks have reduced Russia’s ability to produce and ship diesel into global markets, directly affecting countries that continue to import refined fuels from Russia. Importers that previously relied on discounted Russian diesel must now bid for available volumes from other suppliers, adding upward pressure to prices across the Atlantic Basin.
Middle East outages add to supply constraints
Refinery outages in the Middle East have compounded the supply shortfalls. Kuwait’s Al Zour refinery — one of the largest refining complexes in the region and a significant supplier of diesel into Europe after the 2023 Russian product bans — has been offline since late October. The outage occurred during an already active regional maintenance season, with several Middle Eastern refineries temporarily reducing processing rates. At the same time, reports on the progress of maintenance activity at Nigeria’s Dangote refinery have been mixed, adding further uncertainty to the region’s product supply outlook.
The reduced output from these refineries has contributed to tighter global availability of diesel and other refined products, reinforcing the upward momentum in crack spreads throughout the Atlantic Basin.
U.S. refiners respond to rising international demand
Higher international prices have increased demand for refined products from U.S. refiners, particularly those located on the Gulf Coast. These refiners export significant volumes of gasoline and distillate fuels and have been supplying international markets where buyers are seeking substitutes for reduced Russian volumes or output lost to refinery outages elsewhere.
U.S. gasoline exports have reached their highest levels so far this year, based on data from the U.S. Weekly Petroleum Status Report and shipping data provider Vortexa. Distillate fuel oil exports — including diesel — have also increased in November, remaining above the five-year (2020–24) seasonal average.
Because U.S. refiners can choose to sell into domestic or international markets, rising global diesel prices have also influenced U.S. retail and wholesale markets. Domestic consumers may face higher prices as refiners allocate more barrels to export markets when overseas margins are more favourable.
Outlook
Crack spreads remain sensitive to both geopolitical developments and operational conditions in major refining regions. Further sanctions, prolonged outages, or additional disruptions to Russian export infrastructure could keep diesel margins elevated. Conversely, faster-than-expected refinery restarts or increased product imports from other regions could moderate spreads.
The market will continue to reflect the interplay between supply uncertainties and sustained international demand, particularly in the Atlantic Basin, where refiners and traders remain responsive to rapidly changing global conditions.
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