{"id":67659,"date":"2026-04-01T11:46:27","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T18:46:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=67659"},"modified":"2026-04-01T11:46:27","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T18:46:27","slug":"iran-drone-war-us-risk-losing-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/iran-drone-war-us-risk-losing-conflict\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s attacks drone on, with the U.S. at risk of losing the war"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Conversation<\/a> on March 31, 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Michael J. Armstrong<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

The United States and Israel have repeatedly boasted about airstrikes in their current war with Iran. In Week 1, they claimed the destruction of\u00a075 per cent of Iran\u2019s missile launchers<\/a>. By Week 2, they had\u00a0reduced Iranian missile fire by 90 per cent<\/a>\u00a0and said the war was \u201calready won in many ways<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

And yet,\u00a0Iran keeps damaging refineries and blocking tankers<\/a>\u00a0from crossing the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

The country has certainly suffered many tactical losses. But its\u00a0missiles and drones<\/a>\u00a0have been strategically successful.<\/p>\n

Iran so far has launched at least 5,400 such projectiles. Surprisingly, less than a tenth of them have targeted Israel, its traditional rival.<\/p>\n

Missiles over Israel<\/h2>\n

Israel faced about\u00a0450 Iranian missile attacks<\/a>\u00a0during the war\u2019s first four weeks. The rate of fire fell rapidly after the first weekend but has never halted.<\/p>\n

Some missiles carry several hundred kilograms of explosives, enough to\u00a0destroy an entire building<\/a>. The rest instead dispense dozens of cluster bombs over wide areas. Those are less powerful but\u00a0still lethal<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Israel\u2019s long-range Arrow interceptors engage the missiles first. Its mid-range David\u2019s Sling and short-range Iron Dome interceptors\u00a0provide backup<\/a>. (The country\u2019s\u00a0Iron Beam lasers are not being used<\/a>.) Together, they\u2019ve reportedly intercepted\u00a092 per cent of incoming missiles<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But interceptors<\/a>\u00a0sometimes miss<\/a>. And their supply is limited. Consequently, at least nine large warheads and 150 cluster bombs have hit populated areas.<\/p>\n

These numbers imply that almost all Iranian missiles are accurate enough to need interception. By contrast, during Israel\u2019s earlier conflicts with Gaza in 2008, 2011 and 2014,\u00a0less than a third of incoming rockets<\/a>\u00a0were so accurate.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, more than 90 per cent of Iran\u2019s missiles and drones have targeted Arab countries in the Persian Gulf.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"This
Number of Iranian missiles and drones arriving daily over Israel and the UAE, February 28 to March 27.\u00a0Published news reports,\u00a0CC BY<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Drones across the Persian Gulf<\/h2>\n

Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) collectively reported around 4,900 Iranian attacks during the first four weeks. Only one fifth were missiles: the rest were drones.<\/p>\n

These countries have stated they are neutral in the war. However, they do have defence agreements with the U.S., and some host American military facilities.<\/p>\n

These countries defend themselves using weapons like the U.S.-made Patriot and Israeli-made SPYDER interceptors. Drone experts from Ukraine\u00a0now advise the defenders too<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For example, the UAE reported attacks by 1,835 drones, 378 ballistic missiles and 15 cruise missiles. As of March 10, it claimed to have intercepted 94 per cent of the drones and 99 per cent of the missiles.<\/p>\n

The deadliness of these attacks has varied.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"Large
Plumes of smoke and fire rise after debris from an intercepted Iranian drone struck an oil facility in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, on March 14, 2026.\u00a0(AP Photo\/Altaf Qadri, File)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Continuing lethality<\/h2>\n

In Israel, Iranian missiles have\u00a0killed 20 people<\/a>, implying roughly 4.1 deaths per hundred missiles arriving.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s less than the 5.1 the country saw during its 2025\u00a0war with Iran<\/a>. But it\u2019s four to 40 times higher\u00a0than the rates it suffered<\/a>\u00a0from rockets in earlier Gaza and Lebanon conflicts.<\/p>\n

In the Persian Gulf<\/a>, Iranian projectiles have killed at least 15 civilians, 13 U.S. soldiers and\u00a0seven merchant sailors<\/a>.<\/p>\n

There were about 0.6 deaths per hundred Iranian attacks in Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE combined. That\u2019s much lower than Israel\u2019s rate, presumably because those countries were attacked by drones and short-range missiles carrying smaller warheads.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, although the quantity of Iranian attacks fell after the first week, their lethality did not. Death rates per projectile in Arab countries showed little change week-to-week. In Israel, the rates were highest in Week 3.<\/p>\n

In fact, Iranian missiles keep hitting precise targets, like\u00a0U.S. military aircraft<\/a>\u00a0parked beside runways.<\/p>\n

This implies Iran\u2019s government has recovered from its initial surprise. It\u2019s likely benefiting from\u00a0Russian intelligence<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Chinese technology<\/a>\u00a0too.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"This
Deaths per 100 missiles, rockets, or drones arriving overhead.\u00a0(Published news reports)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Tactical U.S. vs strategic Iran<\/h2>\n

So, U.S. and Israeli warplanes have bombed thousands of targets, killed thousands of civilians, and slowed Iran\u2019s missile fire. But they haven\u2019t stopped it.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s not surprising.\u00a0Airstrikes alone didn\u2019t stop<\/a>\u00a0rocket fire during Israel\u2019s previous conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Ground invasions were needed for that.<\/p>\n

U.S. President Donald Trump can post\u00a0jingoistic mashup videos<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0\u201cbullshit\u201d about<\/a>\u00a0having \u201cmilitarily won<\/a>\u201d the war in Iran. But he hasn\u2019t achieved\u00a0strategic outcomes<\/a>\u00a0like \u201cunconditional surrender<\/a>\u201d from Iran or\u00a0regime change<\/a>\u00a0there.<\/p>\n

By contrast, Iran\u2019s missiles have been strategically effective. They\u2019ve damaged\u00a0Persian Gulf refineries<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0halted tanker traffic<\/a>. They\u2019ve forced Trump to relax\u00a0sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil<\/a>, and on\u00a0Belarusian fertilizer<\/a>. And they\u2019ve shown Arab monarchies that U.S. defence agreements\u00a0have limited value<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"a
U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s proclamations about victory in Iran are at odds with reality.\u00a0(AP Photo\/Markus Schreiber)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Trump recently, and inadvertently, admitted this weakness. While discussing Iran\u2019s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, he said \u201cit would be great\u00a0if we<\/em>\u00a0could do something, but\u00a0they<\/em>\u00a0have to open it<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

This strategic failure despite tactical success is reminiscent of the Vietnam War. U.S. units had overwhelming firepower as they killed enemy soldiers. But\u00a0body counts<\/a>\u00a0by themselves<\/a>\u00a0indicated little about strategic progress.<\/p>\n

Some historians rank<\/a>\u00a0that war as the\u00a0second worst U.S. foreign policy decision<\/a>\u00a0ever. The 2003 invasion of Iraq was ranked the worst.<\/p>\n

Trump talks about being the\u00a0greatest U.S. president in history<\/a>. So, perhaps his Iran war will make him the new leader on that policy failure list.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Conversation on March 31, 2026. By Michael J. Armstrong The United States and Israel have repeatedly boasted about airstrikes in their current war with Iran. In Week 1, they [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":67662,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3087,177,3086,2457,14,2954,960,1288,1606,3085,3083],"class_list":{"0":"post-67659","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-air-defence","9":"tag-donald-trump","10":"tag-drone-warfare","11":"tag-energy-security","12":"tag-featured","13":"tag-geopolitics","14":"tag-iran","15":"tag-middle-east","16":"tag-strait-of-hormuz","17":"tag-u-s-military","18":"tag-war-and-conflict"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIran\u2019s Drone Attacks Expose Risks for U.S. War Strategy - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Iran\u2019s use of drones is exposing vulnerabilities in US strategy, raising questions about whether the US can sustain or win the conflict.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/iran-drone-war-us-risk-losing-conflict\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Iran\u2019s Drone Attacks Expose Risks for U.S. War Strategy - 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