{"id":67655,"date":"2026-04-01T11:37:07","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T18:37:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=67655"},"modified":"2026-04-01T11:37:07","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T18:37:07","slug":"trump-iran-war-early-victory-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/opinion\/trump-iran-war-early-victory-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Donald Trump will try to declare victory in Iran well before November"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Conversation<\/a> on April 1, 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n

by John Duncan<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

The Iranian regime is\u00a0certainly brutal<\/a>. But it\u2019s also powerful as it continues to project its might after\u00a0a month of illegal<\/a>\u00a0air strikes by the United States and Israel.<\/p>\n

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Read more:\u00a0Iran\u2019s attacks drone on, with the U.S. at risk of losing the war<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

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Iran is in the top 10 per cent of countries by size and population<\/a>, has the third largest proven petroleum reserves and\u00a0controls strategically crucial geography<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, both the regime and many ordinary Iranians are prepared to defend the country. Since 1953, when the\u00a0U.S. helped orchestrate a coup to overthrow Iran\u2019s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh<\/a>, Iranians have understood they\u2019re in America\u2019s crosshairs.<\/p>\n

This was especially true after the 1979 Islamic Revolution that overthrew the shah and during the\u00a0U.S.-backed Iraq war against Iran<\/a>\u00a0that killed a million Iranians in the 1980s. As a result, Iran has spent decades beefing up and decentralizing its military capability.<\/p>\n

In contrast, Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned U.S. President Donald Trump in February that the U.S.\u00a0was short<\/a>\u00a0on both munitions and allied support for a war against Iran. Israel, America\u2019s partner in war, is\u00a0also short<\/a>, especially in interceptor munitions. Trump and Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed the concerns, which suggests they planned a short war.<\/p>\n

What are Trump\u2019s options?<\/h2>\n

Critics have accused Trump<\/a>\u00a0of dragging the U.S. \u2014 or\u00a0allowing it to be dragged<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 into a \u201cforever war.\u201d Those critics include\u00a0those in his MAGA base<\/a>, a problem for Trump as he anticipates November\u2019s mid-term elections.<\/p>\n

One unconventional option that might expedite victory,\u00a0discussed during Trump\u2019s first term<\/a>, is to use nuclear weapons against Iran. Trump\u00a0has said<\/a>\u00a0nukes won\u2019t be used, but\u00a0he\u2019s well-known for erratic reversals<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A nuclear strike might expedite surrender, but it took\u00a0two strikes on Japan in 1945<\/a>\u00a0before the Japanese surrendered, and, failing an Iranian surrender, several strikes might be required to destroy the military capability distributed across Iran\u2019s 31 provinces. Because many Americans would be appalled by a nuclear attack, putting the mid-terms at risk, the nuclear option is unlikely.<\/p>\n

Much of\u00a0the concern<\/a>\u00a0about Trump\u2019s election machinations heading into the mid-terms is focused on the manipulation of procedures and officials. The legacy of the\u00a0Jan. 6, 2021 attacks on the U.S. Capitol<\/a>\u00a0is one extreme possibility, as is manipulating the Iran war to achieve electoral gains.<\/p>\n

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Violent protesters, loyal to Donald Trump, storm the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.\u00a0(AP Photo\/John Minchillo)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>
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Trump will probably lean into his rhetorical strengths and try to convince Americans the U.S. has won when it hasn\u2019t. Claiming victory in the face of its absence is not new to him.\u00a0Even in his second term, Trump continues to push the false claim that he won the 2020 election<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Consider the bizarre drama that\u00a0started on March 21 when Trump<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Iran exchanged dire threats<\/a>. Then, out of the blue, Trump\u00a0declared the existence of peace talks<\/a>, which\u00a0Iran denied<\/a>. Perhaps they are imaginary talks on the way to an imaginary victory for Trump.<\/p>\n

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Read more:\u00a0Why Donald Trump is such a relentless bullshitter<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

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Mission accomplished?<\/h2>\n

It seems clear Trump is planning to declare victory well ahead of the mid-terms \u2014 and in part because of them. Such a strategy would involve baiting opponents into \u201cforever war\u201d criticisms, only to ridicule them in stump speeches, generating the image of a president who finishes his wars.<\/p>\n

A declared victory in Iran and a timely exit, in addition to\u00a0the liberation of Venezuela<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0a possible Cuban coup<\/a>, might all coalesce into potent election messaging for the Republicans.<\/p>\n

Soon enough, Trump may announce something akin to former president George W. Bush\u2019s\u00a0premature proclamations about the Iraq War in 2003<\/a>\u00a0by saying something like this:<\/p>\n

\u201cMajor combat operations in Iran have ended. The United States and Israel have prevailed. We do not know the day of final victory, but we have seen the turning of the tide.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

If successful, he will secure two more years \u201clike nobody\u2019s ever seen before<\/a>\u201d of Republican congressional dominance.<\/p>\n

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In this May 2003 photo, U.S. President George W. Bush declares the end of major combat in Iraq as he speaks aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln off the California coast. The war dragged on for many years after that.\u00a0(AP Photo\/J. Scott Applewhite)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>
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Major obstacles<\/h2>\n

The battle for November will feature a few competing narratives in the U.S. But there are four major hurdles for Trump in particular.<\/p>\n