{"id":67619,"date":"2026-03-17T13:48:53","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T20:48:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=67619"},"modified":"2026-03-17T13:48:53","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T20:48:53","slug":"as-war-raises-oil-prices-households-pay-while-energy-companies-profit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/as-war-raises-oil-prices-households-pay-while-energy-companies-profit\/","title":{"rendered":"As war raises oil prices, households pay while energy companies profit"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Conversation<\/a> on March 17, 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Philippe Le Billon<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

War\u00a0is costly<\/a>. The ongoing American-Israeli war on Iran is already reverberating through the global economy. For most people,\u00a0including American citizens<\/a>, it means higher fuel prices and greater economic uncertainty.<\/p>\n

But for a narrower group of entities, war can also be\u00a0extraordinarily profitable<\/a>. Chief among them are segments of the United States oil and gas industry, which have already profited from Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s decision to invade Ukraine and the\u00a0ensuing sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Now, the escalation of\u00a0hostilities between the U.S., Israel and Iran<\/a>\u00a0has once again rattled global energy markets. Fighting and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz \u2014 one of the world\u2019s most important oil shipping routes \u2014 have triggered what some have described as \u201cthe biggest oil disruption in history<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

Read more:\u00a0What is the Strait of Hormuz, and why does its closure matter so much to the global economy?<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\n

By early March, oil prices had briefly surged to\u00a0US$119 per barrel<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 roughly double their level at the end of 2025. Prices have since settled at\u00a0near US$100 a barrel<\/a>, though volatility remains.<\/p>\n

The escalation illustrates a familiar pattern in the political economy of fossil fuels:\u00a0public costs paired with private windfalls<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The shock to global energy markets<\/h2>\n

Three months ago,\u00a0few analysts expected 2026<\/a>\u00a0to be a particularly profitable year for fossil fuel producers. Global supply was expanding rapidly and U.S. gas prices were expected to fall\u00a0below US$3 a gallon<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Production growth in the U.S., Canada, Brazil and Argentina was colliding with weaker demand growth and the ineffectiveness of sanctions on exports from Russia, Iran and Venezuela. Many analysts warned of an emerging glut that could push prices downward. The International Energy Agency, for instance,\u00a0projected a potential global oil surplus<\/a>\u00a0of nearly four million barrels per day in 2026.<\/p>\n

That outlook changed abruptly following the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran and the country\u2019s retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz,\u00a0a strategic chokepoint<\/a>\u00a0that normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world\u2019s traded oil and natural gas.<\/p>\n

Even a partial disruption carries immediate consequences.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"An
A crude oil tanker has its cargo pumped into the Chevron Products Company refinery, one of California\u2019s largest petroleum processing facilities, in El Segundo, Calif., on March 4, 2026.\u00a0(AP Photo\/Damian Dovarganes)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Though the strait has been a cornerstone of U.S. and world energy security for more than 60 years, the Donald Trump administration\u00a0apparently underestimated the possibility<\/a>\u00a0that the Iranian regime would blockade it and pummel U.S.-allied countries in the region.<\/p>\n

For consumers and most businesses, such price spikes function as a tax.\u00a0Higher energy costs ripple<\/a>\u00a0through transport, food production, manufacturing and household budgets. American drivers feel the impact at the pump, while industries dependent on fuel or petrochemicals see their operating costs climb.<\/p>\n

The hidden household costs of war<\/h2>\n

Estimates suggest that for every\u00a0increase of US$10 per barrel<\/a>, additional fuel costs amount to roughly\u00a0US$560 per year<\/a>\u00a0per American household, including costs embedded in goods and services.<\/p>\n

If prices remain at around US$86 instead of the\u00a0expected US$51 forecast for 2026<\/a>, the added burden could reach about US$2,000 per household annually.<\/p>\n

These figures do not include the direct military expenditures, which were conservatively estimated at\u00a0US$11 billion<\/a>\u00a0for the first week of strikes against Iran.<\/p>\n

Even military spending of US$200 million per day (10 times less than the highest estimates at the current intensity<\/a>) would amount to an additional cost of\u00a0US$541 per household annually<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In short, a prolonged war combining high energy prices and sustained military expenditures would likely amount to between three to four per cent of the median U.S. household expenditure \u2014 roughly\u00a0half of what many families spend annually on food or health care<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Lessons from recent wars<\/h2>\n

Recent history offers revealing precedents.<\/p>\n

The costs of the Iraq War (2003 to 2011) for Americans has been estimated at about\u00a0US$1.2-3 trillion in total long-term costs<\/a>, equivalent to about US$16,700 to US$41,750 per household in\u00a0current U.S. dollars<\/a>. Yet the war did achieve the goal of\u00a0reopening access to Iraqi oil fields for American oil companies<\/a>.<\/p>\n

More recently, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia cost an estimated\u00a0one per cent of global GDP in 2022 and added 1.5 per cent to global inflation in 2022-23<\/a>. Ukraine, of course,\u00a0paid the largest price for the war<\/a>, but direct impacts in Europe amounted to about\u00a01 trillion euros<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Much of these costs ultimately translated into profits for oil and gas companies, especially liquefied natural gas (LNG) companies from the\u00a0U.S.<\/a>\u00a0and producers in\u00a0Australia<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0the Gulf states<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Profits on a single LNG shipment from the U.S. to Europe increased fivefold from about US$17 million to US$102 million.<\/p>\n

A similar dynamic is now unfolding again.<\/p>\n

Who really benefits from rising oil prices?<\/h2>\n

This time, with major Gulf states themselves exposed to the conflict, U.S. and other exporters less directly affected by the war may have even greater room to increase profits. American LNG companies could see windfalls approaching\u00a0US$20 billion per month<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The main lesson is that petro-states, including Iran, Russia and the U.S., don\u2019t hesitate to go to war partly because they believe oil revenues will bail them out, if not further enrich them.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"A
The Manhattan Bridge is seen behind a display showing the gas prices at a gas station on March 10, 2026, in the Brooklyn borough of New York.\u00a0(AP Photo\/Yuki Iwamura)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In fact, in seeking to justify the attack on Iran and the continuation of the conflict, Trump argued that \u201cthe United States is the largest oil producer in the world, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

This, of course, depends on who \u201cwe\u201d refers to. The populations of most petro-states have paid dearly for the\u00a0wars involving their countries<\/a>, whether it\u2019s been\u00a0Angola, Chad, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, Russia, Syria and now Iran<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The U.S. has fared much better economically, but the gains have been mostly for its companies, not its population. Higher oil and natural gas prices generate enormous revenues for U.S. oil producers and LNG exporters along the Gulf Coast as global gas markets tighten. Investors and shareholders in these sectors stand to gain from\u00a0rising margins and market valuations<\/a>.<\/p>\n

American households, however, face the opposite effect. Fuel prices rise. Inflationary pressures intensify. Transport and heating costs increase.<\/p>\n

The gains accruing to producers are therefore not only partially financed by the most\u00a0import-dependent countries with the least strategic reserves<\/a>\u00a0but also by\u00a0low-income households who are stuck in a carbon-intensive economy they can least afford to escape<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Conversation on March 17, 2026. By Philippe Le Billon War\u00a0is costly. The ongoing American-Israeli war on Iran is already reverberating through the global economy. For most people,\u00a0including American citizens, [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":67623,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[590,14,3071,70,584,598],"class_list":{"0":"post-67619","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-economy","9":"tag-featured","10":"tag-iran-war","11":"tag-oil-prices","12":"tag-trump","13":"tag-us"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOil prices up, households pay and energy companies profit - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Global conflict is pushing up oil prices, increasing costs for households while delivering higher profits for energy companies.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/as-war-raises-oil-prices-households-pay-while-energy-companies-profit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oil prices up, households pay and energy companies profit - 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