{"id":67408,"date":"2025-12-18T09:58:17","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T17:58:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=67408"},"modified":"2025-12-18T09:58:17","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T17:58:17","slug":"europe-wont-need-new-gas-supplies-after-banning-russian-lng-imports-analysts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/europe-wont-need-new-gas-supplies-after-banning-russian-lng-imports-analysts\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe Won\u2019t Need New Gas Supplies After Banning Russian LNG Imports: Analysts"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix<\/a> on Dec. 17, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Mitchell Beer<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

After adopting a series of rolling deadlines to phase out Russian gas imports by 2027, the European Union still won\u2019t need new supplies\u2014from Canada or anywhere else\u2014to make up the difference, energy analysts say.<\/p>\n

On Wednesday, the European Parliament voted to phase out imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by the end of next year and pipeline gas by September, 2027, Reuters\u00a0reported<\/a>. The European Commission will also propose measures early next year to phase out Russian oil purchases.<\/p>\n

Russia was once the continent\u2019s biggest supplier of gas, the news agency writes. But since Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine in 2022, his country has seen its market share in Europe fall from 45 per cent to 12 per cent.<\/p>\n

One analyst put the value of those remaining cargos at \u20ac25 to \u20ac30 million each, with more than 200 tankers filled with Russian Arctic gas landing at European ports this year.<\/p>\n

Over the past several months, the Canadian government has pushed hard to encourage LNG exports to Europe, with Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson\u00a0maintaining<\/a>\u00a0in August that a first shipment might be possible in \u201cas little as five years\u201d. But analysts say Europe will have no need for new gas, even with Russia falling out of the supply mix.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe big fear is always this question of how to find alternative supply,\u201d said Sebastian R\u00f6tters, sanctions campaigner with Urgevald, a climate finance non-profit based in Sassenberg, Germany. But \u201cfrom 2027 onwards, there will be an oversupply in the market, and this is something we can\u00a0already start to see<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

With multiple experts predicting a gas glut, \u201cI don\u2019t really think the EU will replace these volumes, and I hope they won\u2019t replace them with long-term contracts,\u201d he told\u00a0The Energy Mix<\/em>. \u201cIf we see the need for alternative supply, but at the same we don\u2019t want to throw our climate goals out the window, it\u2019s difficult to sign a 20-year contract.\u201d<\/p>\n

In a market assessment released last March, the Ember energy policy think tank\u00a0said<\/a> Europe will see a 54 per cent increase in LNG import capacity between 2023 and 2030, even though the continent\u2019s gas grid operators only foresee a 4 per cent increase in demand. That disconnect will lead to more than 100 billion cubic metres of \u201ccostly supply capacity potentially being unneeded and underutilized,\u201d the report stated. \u201cThis scale of overinvestment is equal to the combined annual gas demand of Germany, France, and Poland.\u201d<\/p>\n

Throughout 2024, those gas supplies also drove up gas prices by 59 per cent, Ember added, leading to higher electricity costs for consumers.<\/p>\n

Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst, Europe at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said Russia supplied 16 per cent of the continent\u2019s LNG and 13 per cent of its combined LNG and pipeline gas in the first half of 2025, even after the EU decreased its gas dependence by 20 per cent between 2021 and 2023.<\/p>\n

But \u201cif the EU continues with policies to reduce gas consumption and scale up renewables, the bloc could replace this supply without increasing gas imports from any source.,\u201d Jaller-Makarewicz said.<\/p>\n

R\u00f6tters said the real issue is whether EU members\u2014including countries like Hungary and Slovakia that are more closely aligned with the Putin regime\u2014would want to take those steps.<\/p>\n

\u201cCould we offset this? Of course we could,\u201d he said. But \u201cin Europe at the moment, renewable energy deployment and climate-related work are not really the number one priority. So of course energy efficiency is a priority, in the sense that the EU wants to be less dependent, but we could do a lot more if the political will were there.\u201d<\/p>\n

Beyond geopolitics, R\u00f6tters explained that Hungary and Slovakia worked to slow down the EU ban to protect their access to relatively inexpensive pipeline gas from Europe. That led countries to negotiate a\u00a0phaseout in four stages<\/a>: short-term LNG contracts in April, 2026, followed by short-term pipeline contracts in June and longer-term deals at the end of this year and the following September, respectively.<\/p>\n

If the goal is to cut off financing for Putin\u2019s war machine, one question is whether Russia will find other customers for the gas it can no longer sell to the EU.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe market continues to be very volatile and dependent on geopolitical issues that could affect prices, supply, and demand,\u201d Jaller-Makarewicz told\u00a0The Mix<\/em>. But already, \u201cRussia has been selling gas and LNG at discounted prices to attract buyers,\u201d and \u201cit might be difficult to find a market that will import the same amount of Russian gas as Europe did before Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Gas demand in different regions has been declining, and countries like China have been decreasing their LNG needs.\u201d<\/p>\n

That means it will serve the EU\u2019s geopolitical agenda if imports can be shut down, R\u00f6tters said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWould it help to cut this money off? I would say yes, it would,\u201d he said. \u201cWe are pushing for very strong and immediate sanctions because the Russian economy is really in trouble. This is something Putin can still hide, but\u2026 the existing sanctions do hurt.\u201d<\/p>\n

At the same time, Urgevald is stressing the urgency of stopping the flow of gas payments from the EU to Russia, with R\u00f6tters pointing out that Ukraine \u201cis helping the EU\u201d by \u201csaving Europe from defending against a Russian attack on EU territory. Because I don\u2019t think it\u2019s a fairy tale to say the Baltic countries are in imminent danger of Russian aggression.\u201d<\/p>\n

After the deal was adopted, Denmark\u2019s minister for climate, energy and utilities, Lars Aagaard, praised the EU agreement as \u201ca big win for us and for all of Europe. We have to put an end to the EU\u2019s dependence on Russian gas, and banning it in the EU permanently is a major step in the right direction.\u201d<\/p>\n

But in a release following Wednesday\u2019s announcement, Urgevald said the continent is moving too slowly.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the EU congratulates itself on phasing out Russian gas by 2027, the Kremlin is still set to receive billions in the meantime,\u201d R\u00f6tters said in the release. \u201cAt the current pace, the EU will pay over \u20ac4 billion for Russian-linked LNG in 2026 alone. That is not a phaseout. That is financing a war,\u201d and\u00a0 \u201cevery delay weakens sanctions and strengthens the Kremlin.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix on Dec. 17, 2025. By Mitchell Beer After adopting a series of rolling deadlines to phase out Russian gas imports by 2027, the European Union still won\u2019t [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":67413,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[103,41,1077,14,34,517,272,2445],"class_list":{"0":"post-67408","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-electricity","9":"tag-energy","10":"tag-eu","11":"tag-featured","12":"tag-natural-gas","13":"tag-renewables","14":"tag-russia","15":"tag-ukraine"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLNG - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"After adopting a series of rolling deadlines to phase out Russian LNG imports by 2027, the EU won\u2019t need new supplies.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/europe-wont-need-new-gas-supplies-after-banning-russian-lng-imports-analysts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"LNG - 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