{"id":67398,"date":"2025-12-16T12:02:10","date_gmt":"2025-12-16T20:02:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=67398"},"modified":"2025-12-16T12:02:10","modified_gmt":"2025-12-16T20:02:10","slug":"new-report-pitches-climate-gains-through-oil-and-gas-exports-sidesteps-key-emissions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/new-report-pitches-climate-gains-through-oil-and-gas-exports-sidesteps-key-emissions\/","title":{"rendered":"New Report Pitches Climate Gains Through Oil and Gas Exports, Sidesteps Key Emissions"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix<\/a> on Dec. 16, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Mitchell Beer<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

A new report suggests future exports of Canadian oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) could deliver major emissions reductions, but its authors acknowledge they didn\u2019t address some of the key sources of emissions in those fuels.<\/p>\n

The report, produced by the Ottawa-based Public Policy Forum (PPF) for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, asserts that future Canadian exports \u201care highly likely to substitute higher-emitting global alternatives and deliver significant climate benefits,\u201d the organizations\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0in a release last week. They put the emissions savings as high as 40% if Canadian LNG displaced coal-fired power production in Japan, South Korea, China, or India, or 40% if it replaced LNG from the United States.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis report reinforces what we\u2019ve been saying for years: cleaner energy is Canadian energy,\u201d said Chamber President and CEO Candace Laing. \u201cWhen our LNG and oil displace higher-emitting alternatives abroad, global emissions go down, not up.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThis analysis represents a win for the economy, Indigenous reconciliation, and the environment,\u201d said PPF President and CEO Inez Jabalpurwala. \u201cThe report\u2019s conclusions counter the simplistic narrative that more oil and gas equals more emissions.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Globe and Mail\u00a0touted<\/a>\u00a0the release as \u201cgiving fresh support to Canada\u2019s ambition to be an\u00a0energy superpower<\/a>\u00a0as the federal and B.C. governments push for increased exports of liquefied natural gas.\u201d<\/p>\n

The report\u00a0concludes<\/a>\u00a0that global emissions would \u201cmost likely\u201d fall by 40 to 70 million tonnes per year of carbon dioxide or equivalent if all the LNG plants now under development in British Columbia were eventually built\u2014thanks to low-emitting hydropower used in the liquefaction process, \u201ctight\u201d methane controls, high-quality gas with lower carbon dioxide concentrations, and shorter shipping distances to Asia.<\/p>\n

It concludes that heavy oil from Canada\u2019s oil sands would generate an emissions saving of 18 to 51 kilograms per barrel, or more if the\u00a0proposed Pathways Alliance carbon capture hub<\/a>\u00a0is ever built, compared to Venezuela, which (like Canada<\/a>) produces one of the most emissions-intensive grades of oil anywhere.<\/p>\n

The report says the emissions intensity of Canadian oil\u2014the climate pollution released per barrel extracted\u2014has fallen 30% since 2005. The Canadian Climate Institute reported this fall that the downward trend\u00a0has been stabilizing<\/a>\u00a0since 2017.<\/p>\n

\u2018Emissions Intensity\u2019, Higher Emissions<\/h2>\n

Report co-author and Public Policy Forum Fellow Mark Cameron, a former VP, external relations with the Pathways Alliance, acknowledged in an interview that total emissions would rise if oil and gas production increased faster than emissions intensity fell.<\/p>\n

\u201cObviously, if you simply lower emissions intensity slightly and dramatically increase production, you\u2019re going to get higher emissions overall,\u201d he said. \u201cThe question is, how fast will intensity improve and what will happen to global oil demand?\u201d<\/p>\n

The sweeping memorandum of understanding signed last month by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith calls for up\u00a0to 1.4 million barrels per day<\/a>\u00a0of new oil sands production, based on an expansion of the existing Trans Mountain Pipeline and construction of a new line to British Columbia\u2019s environmentally hazardous northwest coast\u2014although\u00a0questions are beginning to swirl<\/a>\u00a0about where and whether there will be demand for those supplies. Cameron said long-term markets for oil sands bitumen might put more emphasis on non-combustion products like asphalt and carbon fibre.<\/p>\n

As long as that bitumen is being burned as a fuel, Cameron acknowledged that emissions accounting leaves out the roughly 80% of the carbon in every barrel that fossil fuel producers can\u2019t decarbonize\u2014since it doesn\u2019t go into the atmosphere until it reaches its end user.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s going to be happening no matter where those barrels come from, right?\u201d He said. \u201cIf we can produce a lower-emission barrel on the production side, it makes sense for Canada to maximize its share of whatever that market is. The emissions are the responsibility of the country that is the final end user, but from a Canadian economic point of view it\u2019s better if that\u2019s Canadian oil, and from a climate point of view it\u2019s better if it\u2019s as low-emission as possible.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other analyses have indicated that Canadian heavy oil is\u00a0among the highest-polluting<\/a>, as well as one of the most expensive and inconvenient to process.<\/p>\n

Methane Uncertainties<\/h2>\n

The report cites LNG as \u201cCanada\u2019s largest new export opportunity, with potentially the greatest impact on emissions,\u201d based on B.C.\u2019s \u201cstringent methane controls\u201d and its methods for measuring, monitoring, reporting and verifying (MMRV) methane releases. Those numbers matter because methane is a climate super-pollutant with 84 times the global warming clout of carbon dioxide over the crucial 20-year span when humanity will be scrambling to get climate change under control.<\/p>\n

Cameron noted that B.C.\u00a0met its own deadline<\/a>\u00a0for reducing methane emissions 45% from 2012 levels in 2023, two years ahead of schedule, one of\u00a0three provinces<\/a>\u00a0that beat their targets.<\/p>\n

But the province is still\u00a0falling far short<\/a>\u00a0of its 2030 emissions target, and the report bases its export and emissions projections on completion of several new LNG projects now under review in B.C. Late last month, an independent review commissioned by the B.C. government\u00a0warned<\/a>\u00a0that those projects threaten to \u201cset back progress\u201d on the province\u2019s emission reductions and \u201cstand to all-but wipe out hard-fought gains in other sectors.\u201d<\/p>\n

Study co-author Arash Goishan, policy lead with PPF\u2019s Energy Future Forum, said the emission advantages in the report were based on the (even) less stringent MMRV regime in the United States. Donald Trump\u2019s administration\u00a0moved to severely weaken<\/a>\u00a0those regulations after he returned to the White House earlier this year.<\/p>\n

Cameron said Canada has some of the lowest methane emissions in the world based on the emissions companies are measuring. But \u201cwe can only look at what we can measure,\u201d he told\u00a0The Energy Mix.<\/em><\/p>\n

As recently as June, McGill University researchers\u00a0found<\/a>\u00a0that inactive oil and gas wells in five provinces, including B.C., were emitting seven times more methane than reported, and past research has suggested large quantities of unmeasured methane releases from natural gas fracking operations in the province\u2019s northeast. Although replacing LNG with coal is one of the key strategies in the PPF analysis, a report last year\u00a0concluded<\/a>\u00a0that LNG carries 2.7 times the climate impact because of its \u201csignificantly higher\u201d methane emissions.<\/p>\n

Decades of Fossil Demand<\/h2>\n

With a global\u00a0LNG glut<\/a>\u00a0on the\u00a0near horizon<\/a>, oil prices headed for a \u201ctailspin<\/a>\u201d, and fossil companies\u2019 market behaviour\u00a0signalling those risks<\/a>, Goishan said the latest projections from the International Energy Agency paint \u201ca more nuanced picture\u201d of future demand.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the IEA\u2019s Current Policies Scenario (CPS), which reflects only policies already firmly in place, global demand for both oil and natural gas continues to grow through 2050 and beyond,\u201d he told\u00a0The Mix<\/em>\u00a0in an email.<\/p>\n

\u201cEven under the IEA\u2019s more ambitious Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), incorporating announced policies and targets (which we\u2019re seeing how easily are ditched in real time and in response to other economic and geostrategic priorities), oil demand peaks around 2030 at around 102 mb\/d [million barrels per day] before a very gradual decline, while natural gas demand grows into the mid-2030s before leveling off into a prolonged plateau of high demand through 2050,\u201d he added. \u201cImportantly, post-peak, there is no sharp decline projected.\u201d<\/p>\n

The IEA\u2019s net-zero scenario shows a more pronounced reduction in demand. But \u201ceven in those decline scenarios, we would expect the lowest-emission sources would be privileged, right?\u201d Cameron told\u00a0The Mix<\/em>. \u201cSo if we do follow the net-zero scenario, that would assume there\u2019s going to be some kind of benefit to being a low-emissions source.\u201d<\/p>\n

He said those calculations could translate into three to five decades of \u201cpretty significant demand\u201d for Canadian LNG.<\/p>\n

The IEA scenarios were published after months of arm-twisting by U.S. Energy Secretary and former fracking CEO Chris Wright, who openly\u00a0threatened<\/a>\u00a0to pull the U.S. and its funding out of the IEA if the Paris-based agency continued projecting a strong future for renewable energy. For years previously, the IEA had projected that demand for\u00a0all three fossil fuels<\/a>\u00a0will plateau this decade before going into permanent decline, as an\u00a0Age of Electricity<\/a>\u00a0begins to take hold.<\/p>\n

A \u2019Pragmatic Approach\u2019<\/h2>\n

The two authors recommend new accounting methods and bilateral agreements to maximize the emission savings they see in Canadian oil and gas. But they aren\u2019t suggesting that anyone wait for the paperwork before pushing ahead with new exports.<\/p>\n

\u201cA pragmatic approach is essential,\u201d they write. \u201cCanada must not delay leveraging its oil and gas export potential by making such agreements a precondition or waiting for a fully-formed global framework, as this would voluntarily forfeit crucial economic, strategic, and environmental advantages that those products offer to Canada, its allies, and the global fight against climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix on Dec. 16, 2025. By Mitchell Beer A new report suggests future exports of Canadian oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) could deliver major emissions reductions, but [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":67399,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[13,1385,41,14,95,606,320],"class_list":{"0":"post-67398","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-canada","9":"tag-co2-emissions","10":"tag-energy","11":"tag-featured","12":"tag-fossil-fuels","13":"tag-industry","14":"tag-methane-emissions"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEmissions - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Authors of the Public Policy Forum report acknowledge they didn\u2019t address some of the key sources of emissions in fossil fuels.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/new-report-pitches-climate-gains-through-oil-and-gas-exports-sidesteps-key-emissions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Emissions - 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