{"id":67395,"date":"2025-12-16T11:45:05","date_gmt":"2025-12-16T19:45:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=67395"},"modified":"2025-12-16T11:45:05","modified_gmt":"2025-12-16T19:45:05","slug":"lng-imports-fall-in-asia-europe-as-investors-get-set-for-phaseout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/lng-imports-fall-in-asia-europe-as-investors-get-set-for-phaseout\/","title":{"rendered":"LNG Imports Fall in Asia, Europe as Investors Get Set for Phaseout"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix<\/a> on Dec. 16, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Mitchell Beer<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

A drop-off in Asian and European demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG), just as a wave of new production facilities come online, is raising questions about whether demand will ever materialize for a fuel that investors have spent eye-watering sums to bring to market.<\/p>\n

In Asia, LNG demand \u201cis on pace to fall by 5 per cent in 2025 as high prices and ongoing trade tensions constrain the region\u2019s appetite for the fuel,\u201d the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) reported<\/a> earlier this month. In the European Union, the utilization rate for LNG terminals has stood around 50 per cent for most of this year,\u00a0wrote<\/a> Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, IEEFA\u2019s lead energy analyst for Europe, in a recent LinkedIn post, and demand between July and September, 2025 was down 9 per cent compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n

In October, IEEFA\u00a0projected<\/a> that European gas demand will fall 15 per cent and imports will drop 20 per cent between 2025 and 2030, after LNG imports from the United States and Russia reached a record high in the first half of this year.<\/p>\n

\u201cRecent International Energy Agency projections, based on static, conservative energy policies and a slower energy transition, are bolstering industry optimism for LNG\u2019s role in Asia\u2019s energy future.\u201d IEEFA analysts Christopher Doleman and Sam Reynolds\u00a0add<\/a>\u00a0that the drop \u201ccomes as the world\u2019s LNG export capacity is on track to grow at the\u00a0fastest rate<\/a>\u00a0on record, and the global gas industry remains\u00a0unwaveringly optimistic<\/a>\u00a0that rapid, sustained demand growth in key Asian markets will absorb new supplies.\u201d<\/p>\n

But\u00a0shifting demand in Asia<\/a>\u00a0\u201cchallenges this investment thesis and demonstrates that Asian energy policies are not static,\u201d the two analysts write. \u201cInstead, they are constantly responding to LNG barriers\u2014including volatile prices, an economic slowdown, infrastructure challenges, gas turbine shortages, and energy security risks\u2014in ways that may continue to limit demand potential, even in a lower price environment.\u201d<\/p>\n

Already, these policy changes undercut the \u201crosier\u201d assumptions in the\u00a0Current Policies Scenario<\/a>, the high-demand outlook for oil and gas published this fall by the International Energy Agency after intensive bullying by U.S. Energy Secretary and former fracking executive Chris Wright. In July, Wright openly\u00a0threatened<\/a>\u00a0to pull the U.S. and its funding out of the IEA if the Paris-based agency continued projecting a strong future for renewable energy.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe will do one of two things: we will reform the way the IEA operates or we will withdraw,\u201d Wright told Bloomberg in July. \u201cMy strong preference is to reform it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sure enough, the IEA\u00a0led off<\/a>\u00a0this year\u2019s edition of its annual World Energy Outlook\u2014the report it likes to\u00a0style<\/a>\u00a0as the gold standard of energy modelling\u2014with an energy futures scenario that presumes no change in national energy or climate laws, regulations, or policies through 2050, resulting in rising oil and gas demand through 2050 and 3\u00b0C average warming.<\/p>\n

But \u201cthis past year demonstrates that policies in Asia are already responding to key LNG-related challenges in ways that could significantly slow demand growth,\u201d Doleman and Reynolds write. China is leading the way, reducing its LNG imports 16 per cent in 2025, followed by Pakistan at 14 per cent, Thailand at 13 per cent, and India at 8 per cent.<\/p>\n

Analysts in China also expect oil demand to plateau sometime between 2025 and 2030, Reuters\u00a0reports<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u2018It\u2019s a Parts Issue\u2019<\/h2>\n

Part of the problem, IEEFA says, is a chronic shortage of the gas turbines that operators need to generate electricity from the LNG they receive. Philippines cancelled a 1.1-gigawatt LNG-to-power project that had been backed by U.S. financial behemoth Blackstone, and is unlikely to add new import capacity with its existing terminals running below capacity. In Vietnam, investors asked for a two-year delay in a gas-fired power project because it couldn\u2019t procure turbines.<\/p>\n

And the problem extends beyond Asia. In March,\u00a0The Energy Mix<\/em>\u00a0reported<\/a>\u00a0that Canadian utilities were seeing longer delivery times, higher costs, and tougher procurement logistics as they scramble to line up new gas turbines to help meet rising electricity demand.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a parts issue,\u201d the Post and Courier\u00a0headlined<\/a>\u00a0from Charleston, South Carolina, where the turbine shortage is one reason a new gas plant is doubling in cost, to $5 billion. Elsewhere, the U.S. Energy Information Administration\u00a0reported<\/a> that gas demand for power generation in the first eight months of the year fell 18 per cent between 2020 and 2025, despite an 8 per cent increase in electricity demand met predominantly by utility-scale solar.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe public narrative around gas is changing,\u201d Reynolds\u00a0told<\/a>\u00a0a recent IEEFA podcast. \u201cFive years ago, LNG and gas were widely viewed as clean, sustainable, and affordable sources of energy for Southeast Asian countries. However, we\u2019re starting to see market disruptions erode pro-gas, pro-fossil fuel narratives, and the emphasis is now being shifted towards a more rapid deployment of low-cost renewables.\u201d<\/p>\n

Investors Prepare for a Fossil Phaseout<\/h2>\n

The emerging trends have investors preparing for a fossil fuel phaseout, We Don\u2019t Have Time CEO Ingmar Rentzhog writes for Forbes magazine this week. He\u00a0cites<\/a> a new survey by the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainability covering 950 asset owners and managers across North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific, 86 per cent of whom expect to increase allocations to sustainable investments over the next two years.<\/p>\n

With 201 large asset owners and 73 large asset managers in the survey, \u201cthe survey is capturing decision-makers stewarding tens of trillions of dollars in aggregate, even before counting the rest of the respondents,\u201d he writes. \u201cThis is how phaseouts happen in practice: not as a single political decision, but as a widening valuation gap.\u201d<\/p>\n

Rentzhog says last month\u2019s COP30 climate summit in Bel\u00e9m was a powerful catalyst because\u2014after fossil fuel lobbyists and petrostates\u00a0blocked delegates<\/a>\u00a0from recommitting to an accelerated phaseout in the official conference declaration\u2014more than 80 countries said they supported the move. Then Colombia and The Netherlands\u00a0agreed to co-host<\/a>\u00a0an international conference April 28-29 in Santa Marta, Colombia, to move the agenda forward.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis matters for markets because it reduces political ambiguity,\u201d Rentzhog writes. \u201cWhen a large coalition begins organizing around a phaseout timeline, investors do not need every major emitter to agree in order to start repricing risk. They need credible direction, momentum, and a pathway that can scale.\u201d<\/p>\n

Now, he adds, with the green economy now surpassing the $5 trillion mark, investors are starting to treat it as a \u201cmainstream growth category, not a niche.\u201d<\/p>\n

For LNG, in particular, IEEFA says the trends point to the possibility of d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu, with the industry at risk of repeating the coal industry\u2019s mistakes from decades past.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the early 2010s, the coal industry attracted a large wave of investment, banking on surging coal imports from China and India,\u201d IEEFA Australia CEO Amandine Denis-Ryan\u00a0wrote<\/a>\u00a0last month. \u201cWhen this growth didn\u2019t materialize, coal oversupply and depressed prices sent major companies bankrupt with significant value destruction for shareholders.\u201d<\/p>\n

Now, she added, \u201cthe LNG industry risks repeating the coal industry\u2019s mistakes, as investment levels outstrip future demand, with potentially more severe consequences for the capital-intensive industry.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix on Dec. 16, 2025. By Mitchell Beer A drop-off in Asian and European demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG), just as a wave of new production facilities [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":67396,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[528,41,216,14,2231,224],"class_list":{"0":"post-67395","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-electrification","9":"tag-energy","10":"tag-energy-transition","11":"tag-featured","12":"tag-ieefa","13":"tag-lng"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLNG Imports - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"IEEFA\u00a0projected\u00a0that European gas demand will fall 15% and imports will drop 20% between 2025 and 2030, after LNG imports from the US and Russia peaked in the first half of this year.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/lng-imports-fall-in-asia-europe-as-investors-get-set-for-phaseout\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"LNG Imports - 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