{"id":67358,"date":"2025-12-09T10:20:38","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T18:20:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=67358"},"modified":"2025-12-09T10:20:38","modified_gmt":"2025-12-09T18:20:38","slug":"alberta-weakens-industrial-carbon-price-just-days-after-signing-mou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/alberta-weakens-industrial-carbon-price-just-days-after-signing-mou\/","title":{"rendered":"Alberta Weakens Industrial Carbon Price, Just Days After Signing MOU"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix<\/a> on Dec. 9, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n

Alberta has introduced changes to its industrial carbon pricing that will make it harder to meet a key commitment in its new memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the federal government.<\/p>\n

The amendments to the province\u2019s Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) Regulation were announced in September but formally introduced December 5, the Canadian Climate Institute\u00a0reports<\/a>, scarcely a week after Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney\u00a0signed<\/a>\u00a0the controversial MOU. In addition to\u2014and perhaps in exchange for\u2014laying the groundwork for a new bitumen pipeline from Alberta to British Columbia\u2019s environmentally sensitive northwest coast, the MOU\u00a0commits<\/a>\u00a0the two governments to increase carbon credit prices under TIER to $130 per tonne, after reaching an agreement on industrial carbon pricing by April 1.<\/p>\n

Even though it fell short of the current federal pricing benchmark of $170 per tonne by 2030, that target was still\u00a0walked back<\/a>\u00a0by Smith\u2019s chief of staff, Rob Anderson, within hours of the signing. Even so, news reporting in the days after the MOU identified the industrial carbon pricing deal as\u00a0the key win<\/a>\u00a0the federal government was looking for, even if it mean trading away hundreds of millions of tonnes of emission reductions through the federal\u00a0Clean Electricity Regulations.<\/em><\/p>\n

But days later, Smith\u2019s government \u201cintroduced regulatory changes that will flood the province\u2019s industrial carbon pricing market with credits and further weaken the carbon price signal for major emitters,\u201d the Climate Institute\u2019s Principal Economist Dave Sawyer said in a statement Friday.<\/p>\n

\u201cBy issuing new compliance credits for direct investment and reactivating previously used credits, Alberta is adding more supply to an already oversupplied market,\u201d he explained. \u201cThese changes work against the direction set out in [the MOU], which included commitments to strengthen Alberta\u2019s industrial carbon pricing system. When Alberta first signalled its intent in September, TIER credit prices crashed to below $20. This change locks in that crash, and puts significant downward pressure on future prices.\u201d<\/p>\n

Achieving the $130 target in the MOU, by contrast, \u201cwould require immediate steps to close loopholes in the credit market and address the oversupply of credits\u201d that drives down their value and makes the system as a whole less effective, Sawyer added. \u201cInstead, introducing new investment credits increases oversupply, weakens the price signal, and moves Alberta further away from the path needed to reach $130 per tonne.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWell that didn\u2019t take long,\u201d veteran energy policy analyst Dan Woynillowicz\u00a0wrote<\/a>\u00a0on LinkedIn. \u201cWhen someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.\u201d<\/p>\n

Although Alberta first announced the regulatory change in September, \u201cfollowing through was a choice, and undoubtedly one made very deliberately,\u201d Woynillowicz\u00a0added<\/a>\u00a0in a follow-up post. \u201cExpect Alberta to continuously test the federal government for weakness, using moves like this to inform their approach at the negotiating table.\u201d<\/p>\n

In a statement to the Toronto Star, Alberta Environment Minister Rebecca Schulz said the changes would entice more companies to invest sooner in emissions reduction technology. \u201cWe\u2019re implementing the changes announced in September to defend jobs and keep industry competitive while still reducing emissions,\u201d she\u00a0said<\/a>. \u201cThis will lead to more emissions being reduced and a stronger system.\u201d<\/p>\n

But University of Calgary energy science professor Sara Hastings-Simon told the Star that made no sense. An oversupply of carbon credits had already brought Alberta\u2019s \u201cheadline\u201d industrial carbon price down to $95 per tonne, making it more palatable for companies to buy the credits rather than investing in actual emissions reductions.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think there is a credible argument that this action is making the system stronger,\u201d Hastings-Simon said. \u201cIt\u2019s doing the opposite.\u201d<\/p>\n

Former federal environment minister Steven Guilbeault, who resigned from the Mark Carney cabinet over the MOU, agreed that the regulatory change would make it harder for Smith to keep her promises. \u201cIs this what Premier Smith meant when she spoke of proceeding \u2018with a (measure) of good faith\u2019?\u201d he wrote on social media.<\/p>\n

In his Thoughtful Energy Journalism newsletter, energy transition expert Markham Hislop speculates that Smith must have known all along what she was doing.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is inconceivable that a policy change that directly affects a major agreement with Ottawa was brewing in the Department of [Energy and Minerals] and Smith knew nothing about it,\u201d he\u00a0writes<\/a>. \u201cA reasonable inference, then, is that she did know. And if she knew, then she negotiated the deal in bad faith.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the aftermath of the MOU, Guilbeault is now warning that the Carney government has put Canada\u2019s climate targets out of reach while fuelling Quebec separatism.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith what has been announced, there\u2019s no way Canada can meet its 2030, even its 2035, climate change objectives,\u201d he\u00a0told<\/a>\u00a0the Bloomberg news agency. \u201cAnd frankly, I doubt that we could even be carbon neutral by 2050.\u201d And \u201cthere is a feeling right now that by abandoning our climate goals we are fuelling the separatist movement,\u201d the Montreal-area MP and former Canadian identify minister\u00a0warned<\/a>\u00a0on CBC.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix on Dec. 9, 2025. Alberta has introduced changes to its industrial carbon pricing that will make it harder to meet a key commitment in its new memorandum [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":67359,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3022,18,13,2929,41,14,95,76,2654],"class_list":{"0":"post-67358","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-ab-oil","9":"tag-alberta","10":"tag-canada","11":"tag-carney","12":"tag-energy","13":"tag-featured","14":"tag-fossil-fuels","15":"tag-pipelines","16":"tag-smith"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMOU - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Alberta introduced changes to its industrial carbon pricing that will make it harder to meet a key commitment in its new MOU with the federal government.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/alberta-weakens-industrial-carbon-price-just-days-after-signing-mou\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MOU - 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