{"id":67231,"date":"2025-11-13T10:10:34","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T18:10:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=67231"},"modified":"2025-11-13T10:10:34","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T18:10:34","slug":"iea-puts-poison-on-the-menu-but-maintains-net-zero-scenario-despite-pressure-from-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/iea-puts-poison-on-the-menu-but-maintains-net-zero-scenario-despite-pressure-from-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"IEA Puts \u2018Poison on the Menu\u2019 But Maintains Net-Zero Scenario Despite Pressure from Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix<\/a> on Nov. 13, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Mitchell Beer<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Under intense pressure from the Trump administration, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a carefully-hedged analysis that still shows fossil fuel demand peaking within years, but also portrays an alternate universe of sustained consumption where average global warming approaches 3\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

Nearly five years after the Paris-based agency\u00a0first reported<\/a>\u00a0no need for new investment in oil, gas, or coal development, this year\u2019s edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO)\u2014long styled<\/a>\u00a0by the IEA as the \u201cgold standard of energy modelling\u201d\u2014presents two energy futures scenarios that show greater reliance on fossil fuels and higher greenhouse gas emissions, along with a net-zero scenario that adheres more closely to a 1.5\u00b0C climate target.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s poison on the menu,\u201d said David Tong, global industry campaign manager at Oil Change International, commenting on a report that Politico\u00a0headlined<\/a>\u00a0as a \u201cglobal energy body\u2019s fossil fuel backpedal\u201d. But in a briefing following the report release Wednesday morning, the IEA said the net-zero scenario still indicates no new investment in longer-term oil and gas megaprojects.<\/p>\n

This year\u2019s IEA scenarios include:<\/p>\n

\u2022 A Current Policies Scenario (CPS) that projects rising oil and gas demand through 2050 and 3\u00b0C average warming based on existing national laws, policies, and regulations;<\/p>\n

\u2022 A Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) that nearly triples renewable energy deployment by 2030 but still lands around 2.5\u00b0C, based on the current \u201cdirection of travel\u201d in policies that countries have put forward but not yet adopted;<\/p>\n

\u2022 The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), which presents a pathway to bring energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to net zero by mid-century, deliver universal energy access by 2030, and reduce energy bills.<\/p>\n

No Need for New Oil or Gas<\/h2>\n

The IEA\u2019s modelling provides scant support for the new pipelines or liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney might want to include in his list of fast-tracked nation-building projects. While the Current Policies Scenario shows oil and gas demand growing through mid-century, countries do have the capacity to make different choices: STEPS projects oil demand flattening by 2030 and gas following suit by 2035, while the net-zero scenario eliminates fossil fuels at a faster pace.<\/p>\n

\u201cNatural gas demand has been revised up in this year\u2019s STEPS, but questions still linger about where all the new LNG will go,\u201d with the potential for higher global demand limited by \u201ccontinued momentum behind the deployment of renewables, nuclear energy in some countries, and efficiency policies,\u201d the IEA says. Across all three scenarios, \u201ca downside risk to the uptake of natural gas and LNG is a failure by the industry to reduce methane leaks.\u201d<\/p>\n

The IEA identifies several common elements, addressed in different ways by each of the scenarios:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Growing demand for energy services for a range of uses, including data centres and artificial intelligence;<\/p>\n

\u2022 Serious concerns over the resilience of energy systems against a range of threats, from cyberattacks to droughts, storms, floods, and wildfires;<\/p>\n

\u2022 The \u201cacute vulnerability\u201d of critical mineral supplies;<\/p>\n

\u2022 The dawn of what the agency has previously dubbed the Age of Electricity, with electrification rising by about 40% by 2035 in the CPS and STEPS scenarios and 50% in the NZE;<\/p>\n

\u2022 The increasing role of renewable energy;<\/p>\n

\u2022 A \u201cshift in the centre of gravity of the energy system\u201d toward India and other emerging economies beyond China;<\/p>\n

\u2022 A comeback for nuclear energy.<\/p>\n

The IEA is postponing release of a fourth model\u2014the Announced Pledges Scenario, which assumes that governments will keep their promises under the Paris climate agreement, in full and on time. Countries\u2019 emission reduction commitments for 2035 have only recently been filed with the United Nations climate secretariat, and so far only 60 countries representing 63% of global emissions have\u00a0bothered to submit their paperwork<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u2019Zombie Scenario\u2019 vs. a 1.5\u00b0C Future<\/h2>\n

The mixed result produced a critical response from the climate and energy analysts who follow the IEA\u2019s work.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump has pressured the IEA to resurrect a zombie scenario from the past\u2014the Current Policies Scenario, in which the current momentum of the energy transition evaporates,\u201d said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare. \u201cThis is an unrealistic assumption when we look at the progress renewables are making around the world. And even if the CPS were realized, it only shows is that Trump\u2019s vision is a disaster for the economy, household bills, and the climate.\u201d<\/p>\n

The IEA\u2019s Net Zero Scenario \u201cshows that, although overshoot is now inevitable due to insufficient action to date, it is still possible to bring temperatures back below 1.5\u00b0C before the end of this century,\u201d Hare added.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis year\u2019s World Energy Outlook sets out a stark and simple choice: we can protect people and communities by aiming for 1.5\u00baC, settle for a disastrous business-as-usual 2.5\u00baC, or choose to backslide into a nightmare future of much higher warming,\u201d said Oil Change\u2019s Tong. \u201cHolding warming to 1.5\u00baC means no further delay, no new fossil fuels, and public planning and funding to guarantee a just energy transition.\u201d<\/p>\n

The report \u201cshows Donald Trump\u2019s dystopian future, bringing back the old, fossil-fuel intense, high pollution Current Policies Scenario, charting an unrealistic pathway where governments drag their energy policies backwards and rates of renewable energy adoption stall, leading to high energy prices and unmitigated climate disaster,\u201d Tong added.<\/p>\n

\u201cCrucially though, the IEA has also confirmed that no single country can stop the energy transition, with oil and coal demand to peak by 2030 in its business-as-usual scenario, with gas to follow by 2035. And, again, it has reconfirmed that there is no investment in new oil and gas fields for 1.5\u00baC.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe International Energy Agency has made a regrettable choice, published against a backdrop of the climate talks in Brazil, to no longer provide a credible scenario for keeping warming as close as possible to 1.5\u00b0C,\u201d said Reclaim Finance analyst Christophe Etienne. \u201cBy avoiding the problem of fossil fuel expansion and offering a new scenario that leads us toward 3\u00b0C of warming, it is failing to provide the necessary economic, political, and financial guidance on managing the energy transition.\u201d<\/p>\n

But even though \u201csome may wish to turn back the clock,\u201d said European Climate Foundation CEO Laurence Tubiana, one of the architects of the Paris accord, \u201cthe direction of the energy system is clear. More than $10 trillion has been invested in clean energy since 2014, and oil demand is on track to peak before 2030 in the IEA\u2019s main scenario. The\u00a0electricity age<\/a>\u00a0is well under way. The choice now is between accelerating or paying later to undo the damage: every tonne of carbon we avoid today saves far greater costs tomorrow.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a revolution happening right now and it\u2019s in renewables and electrification. The evidence on the ground is overwhelming\u2014EV sales are taking off in many emerging countries, solar is permeating even through the Middle East,\u201d and \u201cgrid batteries now mean solar is increasingly\u00a0dispatchable<\/a>,\u201d said Ember chief analyst Dave Jones. \u201cScenarios based on current policies and legislation are behind the curve of technology change as the\u00a0electrotech revolution<\/a>\u00a0gathers pace.\u201d<\/p>\n

Giving In to the Bully<\/h2>\n

The WEO has always presented multiple scenarios, and in years past, climate policy analysts have paid close attention to the order in which those scenarios are presented\u2014since the most prominent in the series makes the headlines that can guide many billions of dollars\u2019 worth of energy investments. Beginning in 2021, when political change in the United States\u00a0shifted the composition<\/a>\u00a0of the IEA board, the agency became a data-driven champion for a faster, wider energy transition.<\/p>\n

That momentum began to shift over the summer, when the Trump administration threatened to pull out of the IEA\u2014taking 40% of the agency\u2019s funding along with it\u2014if it didn\u2019t bring its independent forecasts in line with the administration\u2019s \u201cdrill, baby, drill<\/a>\u201d agenda.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe will do one of two things: we will reform the way the IEA operates or we will withdraw,\u201d U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Bloomberg in July. \u201cMy strong preference is to reform it.\u201d<\/p>\n

That threat reflected \u201cgrowing tensions between the Trump administration\u2019s energy priorities and the IEA\u2019s focus on clean energy transitions,\u201d Forbes reported at the time. The criticism from Wright, an oilfield services CEO before he joined the Trump cabinet, \u201ccentres on the IEA\u2019s reports and projections, which he and other critics of the agency argue are overly optimistic about renewable energy adoption and fail to adequately prioritize energy security.\u201d<\/p>\n

The overt pressure had\u00a0intensified<\/a>\u00a0by mid-September, prompting Bloomberg energy columnist Javier Blas to report on the IEA\u2019s plans to restore the outmoded Current Policy Scenario and project healthy demand for oil through 2050. By giving the CPS pride of place as the first scenario in the series, the WEO became a case of \u201cgood analysis, but terrible comms,\u201d veteran IEA-watcher Greg Muttitt\u00a0writes<\/a>\u00a0on LinkedIn.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe knew the IEA had acceded to U.S. demands to resurrect its obsolete Current Policies Scenario (CPS), which tells a story of continued fossil fuel growth. The trouble is how prominent CPS is: it\u2019s the first scenario presented,\u201d Muttitt explains.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor all IEA\u2019s warnings that CPS is not \u2018business as usual\u2019, putting it first means that\u2019s how people will read it. And the name doesn\u2019t help. The CPS doesn\u2019t describe a future based on current policies\u2014that comes later, in the Stated Policies Scenario\u201d(STEPS).\u201d<\/p>\n

But \u201cyou have to wade through a lengthy discussion of the CPS before you get to the real story: where existing policies are taking us, in STEPS, [is] \u201cthe prevailing direction of travel for the energy system\u201d.<\/p>\n

In the IEA\u2019s own cautious framing, the report invites readers to choose their own adventure. \u201cThere is no single storyline about the future of energy, which is why the World Energy Outlook presents multiple scenarios, none of which is a forecast,\u201d the IEA\u00a0states<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But even so, \u201coptions to reduce emissions substantially are well understood and, in many cases, cost-effective,\u201d the report adds. \u201cA pathway that mitigates the most severe risks from climate change remains feasible and there is strong momentum behind key technologies.\u201d<\/p>\n

But some countries\u2019 commitments to the Paris targets have \u201cwaned\u201d over the last decade, and countries\u2019 new climate commitments for 2035 \u201cdo little, in aggregate, to move the needle beyond the outcomes already projected in the STEPS.\u201d<\/p>\n

So while the net zero scenario is still within reach, \u201cimplementing these actions at scale would require an intensified international push to increase transition-related investment in emerging and developing economies, and much more practical efforts to ensure that these investments deliver tangible near-term social and economic benefits.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix on Nov. 13, 2025. By Mitchell Beer Under intense pressure from the Trump administration, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a carefully-hedged analysis that still shows [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":67232,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2993,41,80,14,2992,67,584],"class_list":{"0":"post-67231","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-climate-change-iea","9":"tag-energy","10":"tag-environment","11":"tag-featured","12":"tag-iea-weo","13":"tag-oil","14":"tag-trump"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIEA - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Under intense pressure from the Trump administration, the IEA has issued a carefully-hedged analysis that still shows fossil fuel 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