{"id":67161,"date":"2025-10-21T10:20:13","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T17:20:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=67161"},"modified":"2025-10-21T10:20:13","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T17:20:13","slug":"a-trillion-more-barrels-of-oil-new-ai-tool-would-trigger-400-billion-tonnes-of-climate-pollution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/a-trillion-more-barrels-of-oil-new-ai-tool-would-trigger-400-billion-tonnes-of-climate-pollution\/","title":{"rendered":"A trillion more barrels of oil: New AI tool would trigger 400 billion tonnes of climate pollution"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix<\/a> on Oct. 20, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Mitchell Beer<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Artificial intelligence could help fossil companies unlock another trillion barrels of production from existing oil wells through 2050, according to a global consultancy touting the \u201cbreakthrough\u201d AI tool that can make it all happen.<\/p>\n

The report from Wood Mackenzie makes no reference to the more than 400 billion additional tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions that would result, or the implications for a climate emergency that is already speeding out of control.<\/p>\n

Starting from the assumption that annual oil consumption won\u2019t peak until the early to mid-2030s, WoodMac calculates cumulative demand of almost a trillion barrels through 2050, and a \u201chuge supply gap\u201d of 300 billion barrels as existing and upcoming oil wells decline. So the consultancy mapped every \u201csignificant\u201d oil field in the world and fed the results into an AI tool to \u201cidentify where operators can wring substantially more oil out of producing reservoirs,\u201d using \u201cbest-in-class recovery factors to quantify the remaining potential,\u201d WoodMac Chair and Chief Analyst Simon Flowers\u00a0wrote<\/a>\u00a0in an October 15 post.<\/p>\n

In one of the first tests of the new tool, \u201cit was revealed that better recovery from producing fields could yield an additional 470 billion to over 1,000 billion barrels,\u201d WoodMac\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0in a release. \u201cThis potential only requires the application of established best practices already deployed successfully across the industry, not unproven technologies.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018Every Last Drop\u2019 of Oil<\/h2>\n

\u201cForget new fields,\u201d\u00a0enthused<\/a>\u00a0WoodMac analysts Andrew Latham, Orla Marnell, and Josh Dixon, in a pitch for the firm\u2019s AI-powered Analogues tool titled \u201cEvery last drop: Using AI-powered analysis to find oil-field upside potential\u201d. The tool covers \u201creservoir geology, hydrocarbon quality, in-place resources, operator access to finance and technology, costs and fiscal terms\u201d for \u201cevery significant field in the world,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n

The paper specifically urged state-owned fossil companies (national oil companies, or NOCs) to \u201cstep up\u201d and \u201copen up\u201d to extraction practices adopted by more established oil producers like Norway and the UK. \u201cThe future of the oil industry will be increasingly onshore and operated by NOCs,\u201d the three authors stated. \u201cRussia and much of OPEC, with less access to technology, challenging fiscal terms, and difficult rocks and fluids, have scope to grow market share.\u201d<\/p>\n

While \u201cmany NOCs will delight in this opportunity,\u201d they added, \u201csome will need more help,\u201d and \u201cthose operators looking to invest internationally should find that the world is their oyster. There are more opportunities in producing fields than there is capital available. Host governments that want optimal development of their resources will need to offer attractive terms to lure the best operators.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dixon, a senior research analyst at WoodMac, produced a\u00a0separate explainer<\/a>\u00a0that cites Analogues as a \u201cbreakthrough in subsurface decision-making. It is not just an improvement in existing workflows, but a fundamental reset.\u201d<\/p>\n

The WoodMac materials didn\u2019t address:<\/p>\n

\u2022 The roughly 430 billion tonnes\u00a0[pdf]\u00a0<\/em>of additional carbon dioxide emissions that a trillion new barrels oil would represent;<\/p>\n

\u2022 Some\u00a04\u00bd years of scenario development<\/a>\u00a0by the International Energy Agency and others that shows demand for all three fossil fuels\u00a0peaking this decade<\/a>\u00a0before going into permanent decline;<\/p>\n

\u2022 The cost per barrel of the additional oil the existing fields would produce amid projections that global markets are headed for several years of\u00a0low prices<\/a>, making it difficult for fossil companies or their investors to make money on new ventures;<\/p>\n

\u2022 The plummeting cost and\u00a0rapid buildout<\/a>\u00a0of competing renewable energy and energy efficiency options;<\/p>\n

\u2022 IEA analysis that shows fossil companies already \u201crunning faster to stand still<\/a>\u201d, on the hook for $500 billion per year just to replace depleted wells and maintain their current production;<\/p>\n

\u2022 The practicalities of transferring tips and techniques from \u201cmature\u201d oilfields to other parts of the world;<\/p>\n

\u2022 The capital spending and resources that would be needed to maintain existing oilfield infrastructure to a high operating standard;<\/p>\n

\u2022 The human resources companies would need to operate the fields, at a time when\u00a0relatively few graduates<\/a>\u00a0are choosing fossil industry jobs;<\/p>\n

\u2022 The specific steps host countries would have to take to make their fossil resources \u201cattractive\u201d to investors; or<\/p>\n

\u2022 The\u00a0race<\/a>\u00a0to the\u00a0bottom<\/a>\u00a0that would imply.<\/p>\n

A WoodMac spokesperson acknowledged some of the complexities behind the company\u2019s pitch in an email to\u00a0The Energy Mix.\u00a0<\/em>\u201cThe potential for additional recoverable resources depends on a variety of factors, some of which are unlikely to be realized in a way that will deliver material additions to current reserves,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough these reserves are technically accessible, much of the potential additional resources are sub-commercial in current conditions,\u201d the spokesperson added. To realize this upside, several factors would have to align: technical partnerships between producers and service companies would need to be expanded, host governments would need to provide the fiscal and regulatory support to spur increased investment, and global demand under the energy transition would need to be maintained. It is likely that the national interests of some producing countries and the economic incentives for producers could make pursuing these reserves increases unattractive at current or future market conditions.\u201d<\/p>\n

430 Gigatonnes of CO2<\/h2>\n

Author and analyst Ketan Joshi scorched the WoodMac analysis in a post on LinkedIn.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat are the emissions in a trillion barrels of oil?\u201d he\u00a0asked<\/a>. \u201cAssuming 0.43 tonnes of CO2 per barrel, that\u2019s about 430 gigatonnes. To give you an idea of how nutty this is,\u201d 430 Gt would equal:<\/p>\n

\u2022 All the world\u2019s CO2 emissions between 2012 and 2023, which in turn were one-quarter of all the CO2\u00a0ever\u00a0<\/em>emitted;<\/p>\n

\u2022 Roughly as much carbon dioxide pollution as the United States has ever produced, and more than double China\u2019s historical emissions;<\/p>\n

\u2022 All global emissions from oil combustion since 1982, and about 70% of combustion emissions ever.<\/p>\n

Climate change \u201cisn\u2019t mentioned anywhere in their report, and the only thing worse than them not believing it exists would be if they\u00a0do\u00a0<\/em>believe it exists, but want to see this volume of fossil extraction enabled anyway,\u201d Joshi wrote. \u201cOf course, their software isn\u2019t capable of actually unlocking a trillion \u00a0barrels of oil. But the real goal is to scramble to stem the bleeding decline of the oil industry, and put the fossil fuel industry on life support for a few more years, increasing extraction wherever and however they can.\u201d<\/p>\n

Game-Changing in the Wrong Direction<\/h2>\n

Energy transition pioneer Amory Lovins, co-founder of the Rocky Mountain Institute, agreed that AI could increase hydrocarbon reserves and yields while reducing production costs by as much as 20%, or 30% for new shale wells. Unlike WoodMac, he doesn\u2019t frame that as a good thing.<\/p>\n

\u201cAI\u2019s potential but mostly speculative and noncomparable energy benefits, such as greater energy efficiency and cheaper renewable power, must also be compared with the indirect impacts of rising demand for energy-intensive AI services, faster hardware turnover (with more embodied energy), and especially accelerating polluting activities like finding and extracting fossil hydrocarbons\u2014one of AI\u2019s biggest uses,\u201d he\u00a0wrote<\/a>\u00a0[pdf]\u00a0<\/em>in a May 2025 paper, \u201cArtificial Intelligence Meets Natural Stupidity: Managing the Risks\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cExtra emissions\u2014\u2018enabled impacts\u2019\u2014from burning otherwise unavailable or uncompetitive fossil fuels could then far exceed emissions avoided by more efficient data centres, making the AI \u2018game-changing\u2019 in the wrong direction.\u201d<\/p>\n

In global markets, \u201coil has already become uncompetitive even at low prices before it becomes unavailable even at high prices,\u201d Lovins told\u00a0The Mix<\/em>\u00a0in an email. But \u201chistory might suggest higher confidence in realizing AI applications in the hypercompetitive fossil fuel industries than in emission reductions spread across all other sectors. That imbalance may tip realized results toward net harm. That needs urgent clarification.\u201d<\/p>\n

Caroline Dennett, a former senior consultant to colossal fossil Shell who\u00a0became a whistleblower<\/a>\u00a0against the company\u2019s health and safety practices in 2022, said Wood Mackenzie\u2019s projection \u201cmay appear technologically bold, but it overlooks the operational and human realities that determine whether such recovery is even feasible or safe, let alone environmentally responsible.\u201d<\/p>\n

Much of the decades-old oil and gas infrastructure now in use \u201cwas never designed for prolonged use,\u201d she said in an email. \u201cDeferred maintenance, corrosion, and integrity degradation already challenge safety performance within expected operational lifetimes,\u201d and \u201ceach additional year of operation pushes equipment and people further beyond design intent.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dennett added that \u201cextracting a trillion more barrels might sound attractive to those still wedded to fossil fuel economics and dividends.\u201d But \u201cwithout deep analysis of safety, integrity, and human capability, the true yield will be measured not in barrels, but in incidents, liabilities, and litigation.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix on Oct. 20, 2025. By Mitchell Beer Artificial intelligence could help fossil companies unlock another trillion barrels of production from existing oil wells through 2050, according to [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":67162,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[14,95,565,2545],"class_list":{"0":"post-67161","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-featured","9":"tag-fossil-fuels","10":"tag-iea","11":"tag-wood-mac"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nclimate - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A new AI tool could unlock one trillion barrels of oil from existing wells through to 2050, adding 400B T of climate harming CO2 emissions.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/a-trillion-more-barrels-of-oil-new-ai-tool-would-trigger-400-billion-tonnes-of-climate-pollution\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"climate - 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