{"id":67149,"date":"2025-10-16T10:14:35","date_gmt":"2025-10-16T17:14:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=67149"},"modified":"2025-10-16T10:14:35","modified_gmt":"2025-10-16T17:14:35","slug":"global-oil-prices-fall-as-speculators-complain-of-hard-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/global-oil-prices-fall-as-speculators-complain-of-hard-times\/","title":{"rendered":"Global oil prices fall as speculators complain of hard times"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>This article was published by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/tailspin-global-oil-prices-fall-as-speculators-complain-of-hard-times\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Energy Mix<\/a> on Oct. 16, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>By The Energy Mix Staff<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>The global price of oil went into a small tailspin this week, just as Prime Minister Mark Carney dangled the controversial Keystone XL pipeline as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations with Donald Trump, and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith demanded extraordinary concessions for new export pipelines that no investor seems willing to touch.<\/p>\n<p>Oil prices hit a five-month low in Europe after the International Energy Agency\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/iea-raises-2025-oil-supply-forecast-after-opec-output-hike-decision-2025-10-14\/\">reported<\/a>\u00a0a \u201clarge surplus\u201d in global supplies, The Financial Times\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/e9f5ed18-5ca2-4154-9982-40616121a69d\">reports<\/a>. The European price benchmark, known as\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/ask\/answers\/052615\/what-difference-between-brent-crude-and-west-texas-intermediate.asp\">Brent crude<\/a>, fell to US$61.50 on Tuesday, its lowest since May, before bouncing back somewhat in Wednesday trading.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe decline came after the agency said preliminary data indicated a \u2018massive\u2019 build-up in oil shipments in September following a surge in exports by oil producers, suggesting that output is now more than consumers need,\u201d the Times writes. That\u2019s partly because the projection shows global demand falling by 700,000 barrels per day.<\/p>\n<p>All told, the Paris-based IEA is projecting an oil surplus of 3.2 million barrels per day through June, 2026\u2014a small amount in the scheme of things, with countries producing more than 100 million barrels per day, but enough to drive down prices and potentially shift the economics of new oil infrastructure projects. The agency previously predicted a daily surplus of two million barrels, while other analysis has pointed to a likely\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/any-new-oil-pipeline-will-need-massive-taxpayer-subsidies-analyst-warns\/\">multi-year run<\/a>\u00a0of low prices.<\/p>\n<p>Bloomberg\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rigzone.com\/news\/wire\/crude_near_59_on_surplus_fears-14-oct-2025-182078-article\/\">cites<\/a> \u201cescalating trade tensions\u201d between the Trump White House and China as another factor driving down oil prices. The North American price benchmark, known as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/ask\/answers\/052615\/what-difference-between-brent-crude-and-west-texas-intermediate.asp\">West Texas Intermediate<\/a>\u00a0(WTI), was down 1.3% to about $59 per barrel on Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>Prices took a hit from the IEA\u2019s projection that daily oil demand will fall\u2014and, in a macabre but not unexpected twist, the expectation that a fragile peace deal in the Middle East could help stabilize the market, Daniel Takieddine, co-founder and CEO of Sky Links Capital Group, told industry newsletter Rigzone.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe agency has lowered its demand growth estimates to approximately 700,000 barrels per day for both years [2025 and 2026], reinforcing expectations of a significant surplus,\u201d Takieddine\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rigzone.com\/news\/oil_prices_fall_to_lowest_point_in_5_months-14-oct-2025-182073-article\/\">said<\/a>. \u201cThe market was further affected by a reduced geopolitical risk premium as hopes for stability in the Middle East grew.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the price drop would have been sharper if traders had taken the IEA\u2019s estimate seriously. \u201cEither the market is pricing it completely wrongly or the [estimated] surplus is too elevated,\u201d he told the Times. \u201cI will believe it is a bit on the elevated side.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But major oil speculators are already bracing for lower profits, after \u201clower volatility in energy prices\u2026 left little opportunity for the outsized returns that commodities traders had enjoyed in recent years,\u201d the Times\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/dfbf4db8-7cd0-4024-b112-db74d046b2e3\">writes<\/a>\u00a0in a separate dispatch. Those factors made 2025 a \u201ctough year, with lots of nitty gritty required,\u201d Vitol CEO Russell Hardy told an industry forum this week in London. Gunvor CEO T\u00f6rbjorn T\u00f6rnqvist complained it had been a time of \u201chard work, for little\u2026or a little less.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>This article was published by The Energy Mix on Oct. 16, 2025. By The Energy Mix Staff The global price of oil went into a small tailspin this week, just as Prime Minister Mark Carney <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/global-oil-prices-fall-as-speculators-complain-of-hard-times\/\" title=\"Global oil prices fall as speculators complain of hard times\">[Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":67150,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[322,91,41,14,95,67,1546,584],"class_list":{"0":"post-67149","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-china","10":"tag-energy","11":"tag-featured","12":"tag-fossil-fuels","13":"tag-oil","14":"tag-trade-war","15":"tag-trump"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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