{"id":67141,"date":"2025-10-15T10:56:14","date_gmt":"2025-10-15T17:56:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=67141"},"modified":"2025-10-15T10:56:14","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T17:56:14","slug":"ensuring-future-power-grid-reliability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/ensuring-future-power-grid-reliability\/","title":{"rendered":"Ensuring future power grid reliability"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by the Canada Energy Regulator<\/a> on Oct. 15, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n

Every time you turn on a light switch, a complex system delivers electricity from power plants to your home. This system, the electric grid, includes the bulk power system (BPS) and the distribution system, and it works 24\/7 to keep the lights on.<\/p>\n

What is the bulk power system (BPS)?<\/h2>\n

The electric \u201cgrid\u201d delivers electricity from producers to consumers. It includes the:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Generation system<\/dfn><\/li>\n
  2. Transmission system<\/dfn><\/li>\n
  3. Distribution system<\/dfn><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The \u201cBulk Power System\u201d (BPS) includes the generation and transmission systems. The\u00a0North American Electricity Reliability Corporation (NERC)<\/dfn>\u00a0defines the BPS as \u201cthe facilities and control systems necessary for operating an interconnected electric energy transmission network (or any portion thereof); and electric energy from generation facilities needed to maintain transmission system reliability. The term does not include facilities used in the local distribution of electric energy\u201dFootnote\u00a0<\/span>1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p>\n

    Maintaining the reliability of the BPS is crucial to ensuring the overall reliability of the electric grid.<\/p>\n

    Figure\u00a01: Bulk Power System (BPS)<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \"\"
    Source: CER<\/em>
    Text Alternative: This illustration shows the main elements of a typical power grid, from generation to final users (demand). The bulk power system is made up of generation and transmission.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

    BPS reliability<\/h2>\n

    Most Canadian provinces follow NERC\u2019s\u00a0reliability standards<\/dfn>. Each province is responsible for maintaining the reliability of its BPS. NERC defines BPS reliability in terms of two parts:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Adequacy<\/strong>Footnote\u00a0<\/span>2<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0means having enough resources to provide electricity at the proper voltage and frequency to continuously meet customer demand, virtually all the time. This is more generally referred to as resource adequacyFootnote\u00a0<\/span>3<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0and is evaluated at the planning stage. In this planning stage, power system planners look ahead to predict how much electricity will be needed in the future, and make sure enough power plants and other resources will be available to meet that need, including some extra capacity for emergencies.<\/li>\n
    2. Operating reliability<\/strong>Footnote\u00a0<\/span>4<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0refers to always keeping the power on\u2014the ability of the electric system to withstand sudden and unexpected disturbances like\u00a0short circuits<\/dfn>\u00a0or\u00a0unplanned outages<\/dfn>Footnote\u00a0<\/span>5<\/a><\/sup>. This is an issue that is managed in real time in the operational stage.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      A reliable BPS is one that meets both these conditions, virtually all the time. An indicator of grid reliability difficulties is the\u00a0Energy Emergency Alert (EEA)<\/dfn>. EEAs are alerts sent out by system operators during major grid events. These alerts are classified at different levels by NERC; level\u00a03 being the most criticalFootnote\u00a0<\/span>6<\/a><\/sup>, indicating the highest threat to grid reliability. Considering one of the provinces, Alberta for example, EEA events increased notably during 2022-2023, with four\u00a0EEA 2<\/dfn>\u00a0events and seven\u00a0EEA 3<\/dfn>\u00a0events in 2022. The trend continued into 2024 with six EEA-3 events, indicating sustained grid stress during this period.<\/p>\n

      Figure\u00a02: Frequency of EEA 2 and EEA 3 events in Alberta since 2010<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \"\"
      Source: Alberta Energy System Operator Event Log<\/em>
      Text Alternative: This bar chart illustrates the frequency of EEA 2 and EEA 3 events in Alberta since 2010. After no events in 2010-11, there were two EEA 2 events in both 2012 and 2013. There was one EEA 2 event in each year from 2014 to 2020, but it rose to two in 2021, and four in both 2022 and 2023, before falling to zero in 2024. EEA 3 events occurred once in both 2012 and 2013, and did not occur again until 2022, when they happened seven times. In 2023, the frequency was four, and in 2024, it was six. The first half of 2025 had no EEA events.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

      Managing unplanned outages<\/h2>\n

      The reliability of the BPS can be impacted by\u00a0unplanned outages<\/dfn>, which can be caused by extreme weather conditions and create reliability issues if the power system isn\u2019t flexible. Operators need to adjust quickly by\u00a0redispatching<\/dfn>\u00a0other generators or by using\u00a0operating reserves<\/dfn>. Without adequate resources, the system may struggle to respond to unplanned outages, leading to potential reliability issues. Also, if there are no alternative transmission lines, or if the existing ones are\u00a0congested<\/dfn>, it can be even more challenging.<\/p>\n

      Recent extreme weather events surfaced these challenges across Canada. For example, in January 2024, Alberta narrowly avoided a rolling blackout during a severe cold weather event that also restricted electricity importsFootnote\u00a0<\/span>7<\/a><\/sup>. With transmission lines from neighboring provinces congested and limited operating reserves available, the Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO) took measures to maintain power supply, including asking residents to reduce their electricity usageFootnote\u00a0<\/span>8<\/a><\/sup>. Later, in March 2025, a major ice storm left over a million customers without power in Ontario, with some outages lasting over a week due to extensive damage to transmission and distribution infrastructureFootnote\u00a0<\/span>9<\/a><\/sup>. The widespread damage limited available transmission alternatives and overwhelmed system operators’ ability to redispatch resources.<\/p>\n

      How will future trends affect reliability?<\/h2>\n

      Electricity demand is expected to increase significantly in the coming yearsFootnote\u00a0<\/span>10<\/a><\/sup>. Trends driving increased demand include electricity\u2019s projected role in decarbonization efforts, with growing electrification of end-uses (like increased electric vehicle use and heat pump adoption).Footnote\u00a0<\/span>11<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0Further, new areas of demand growth, like data centers (ex. used to power AI) could also lead to increased growth in electricity demand.<\/p>\n

      Meeting this rising electricity demand could be a reliability challengeFootnote\u00a0<\/span>12<\/a><\/sup>. Higher electricity consumption could make it difficult for grid operators to reliably provide sufficient power during\u00a0peak periods<\/dfn>.<\/p>\n

      To meet increased demand while keeping costs and emissions from electricity generation low, additional supply from clean energy sources is widely expected across energy forecasts. Even in scenarios that reflect current policies, many reports project substantial growth in variable renewable energy sources (VRES<\/dfn>) like wind and solar, primarily due to their competitive costs.Footnote\u00a0<\/span>13<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0Net-zero scenarios naturally show even greater VRES deployment. However, due to their intermittency, VRES must be managed carefully to maintain grid reliability.<\/p>\n

      Weather conditions also affect consumer electricity demand patterns. During extreme weather events, like heat waves or cold snaps, demand sometimes peaks while VRES output drops, leading to supply shortfallsFootnote\u00a0<\/span>14<\/a><\/sup>. On the other hand, when weather conditions are ideal for VRES generation, output may be high while demand is low, resulting in supply surplusFootnote\u00a0<\/span>15<\/a><\/sup>. This variability poses a challenge for the grid because, unlike conventional generators, solar and wind technologies lack the ability to adjust their output and are not easily\u00a0dispatchable<\/dfn>.<\/p>\n

      Ways to improve reliability<\/h2>\n

      To ensure a reliable grid, the power system must continuously and safely operate during equipment outages, supply shortfalls, or surpluses. This requires a flexible grid, having the right mix of supply and transmission assets capable of responding to sudden changes in demand or unplanned outages.<\/p>\n

      One example of how grid reliability can be maintained is supply diversification by integrating VRES with dispatchable technologies such as battery storage and conventional power plants. Battery storage can store excess power during periods of surplus and provide power when needed, while other dispatchable technologies can provide base load capacity to complement VRESFootnote\u00a0<\/span>16<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p>\n

      Increasing transmission capacity through new transmission lines or\u00a0non-wire solutions<\/dfn>\u00a0(such as\u00a0dynamic line rating<\/dfn>) can facilitate power transfer from areas with surplus to those experiencing shortfalls. Demand management solutions, like enhanced\u00a0demand response<\/dfn>\u00a0and the adoption of more energy-efficient devices, can also alleviate grid load.<\/p>\n

      Widespread\u00a0grid modernization<\/dfn>\u00a0efforts could help improve reliability. This may include proposing new market structures, integrating new technologies like more accurate forecasting, advanced smart metering, grid automation and Internet of Things (IoT<\/dfn>) technology, and energy storage systemsFootnote\u00a0<\/span>17<\/a><\/sup>Footnote\u00a0<\/span>18<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p>\n

      However, as grid modernization helps improve reliability, new vulnerabilities are also being introduced. These vulnerabilities involve physical and cyber threats and can be seen in smart grids, IoT sensors, and automated systems. To maintain reliability, modernized grids require safeguarding to manage and mitigate these new risks.<\/p>\n

      Footnotes<\/h3>\n