{"id":67097,"date":"2025-09-23T10:39:53","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T17:39:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=67097"},"modified":"2025-09-23T10:39:53","modified_gmt":"2025-09-23T17:39:53","slug":"opinion-bulldozer-or-bystander-canadas-stakes-in-the-new-global-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/opinion\/opinion-bulldozer-or-bystander-canadas-stakes-in-the-new-global-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: Bulldozer or bystander? Canada\u2019s stakes in the new global economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by Policy Options<\/a> on Sept. 9, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Rachel Samson<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Big changes are coming to the global economy and the stakes are high for Canada. Over many decades, we have built a successful, export-oriented economy where our largest-value\u00a0goods exports<\/a>\u00a0are oil and gas, metals and minerals, and autos \u2013 all of which are primarily destined for the U.S. market.<\/p>\n

But these sectors and our entire trading relationship with the United States face significant uncertainty over the next decades as the world undergoes a reordering of trade patterns and a realignment of markets in the face of the rise of artificial intelligence, a changing climate, the global energy transition and U.S. tariffs.<\/p>\n

How Canada fares will depend largely on private companies. Those that anticipate, innovate, adapt and prepare will thrive, while those that stagnate will struggle.<\/p>\n

Governments can help by encouraging choices that are in our collective national strategic interest. Industrial policy \u2013 where governments deliberately support certain economic activities and outcomes \u2013 is an increasingly important tool.<\/p>\n

However, to achieve results and maintain public trust, industrial policy needs to be designed and executed using the highest standards of excellence. Fortunately, we have years of experience and a\u00a0growing body of research<\/a>\u00a0to give us a better idea of what to do. That\u2019s critical because for every\u00a0success story<\/a>, there is an example where industrial policy\u00a0went wrong<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Significant structural change in the global economy<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The rise of artificial intelligence will increasingly influence the global competitiveness of companies and countries. While there are growing opportunities in the development of AI products, the overall adoption of AI is equally important, including in stalwart Canadian economic sectors such as\u00a0agriculture<\/a>,\u00a0oil and gas<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0auto manufacturing<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As Evan Solomon, Canada\u2019s first minister of artificial intelligence and digital innovation, said at an event in Montreal this summer, \u201cCountries that master AI will\u00a0dominate the future<\/a>. You\u2019re either part of the bulldozer or you\u2019re part of the road.\u201d<\/p>\n

IRPP study: How Industrial Policy Can Strengthen Canada\u2019s Economy and Sovereignty<\/a><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Only targeted industrial policy will fulfil Canada\u2019s value-adding potential\u202f<\/strong><\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Industrial policy and Canada\u2019s uncertain future<\/strong><\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

AI isn\u2019t the only area where the global economy will face disruption. Climate change is set to play a growing role in supply chains and goods production. As drought, floods, fires and storms increase in frequency and intensity, companies will face growing challenges with their operations and with securing feedstocks, water and other supplies.<\/p>\n

Forestry, pharmaceuticals, chemicals and mining\u00a0top the list<\/a>\u00a0for exposure to physical climate risks. If the pace of action to reduce emissions doesn\u2019t accelerate, losses could reach\u00a0eight per cent<\/a>\u00a0of global GDP by 2050. Companies and countries with strong adaptation strategies will fare better than those that don\u2019t.<\/p>\n

The global energy transition also\u00a0remains underway<\/a>, despite backtracking in the U.S. While there is debate about the pace at which demand for fossil fuels will decline, there is general agreement on a\u00a0downward trajectory<\/a>\u00a0over the rest of this century.<\/p>\n

Change may not come with a gradual price decline as some are envisioning. Instead, it could involve an extended period of volatility with\u00a0mismatches between supply and demand<\/a>\u00a0leading to sudden price spikes and crashes that disrupt oil and gas producers as well as consumers.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Clean energy and electric vehicles may also face periods of volatility as companies struggle to predict demand in an environment of\u00a0shifting government policies<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The energy transition continues to drive change in other markets as well, such as growing demand for the\u00a0critical minerals<\/a>\u00a0needed for batteries and renewable energy. Making the right bets with the right timing will be critical, given the role energy and mineral sectors play in our economy.<\/p>\n

The cost of underinvestment\u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Understanding trends underway is one thing, but doing something about them is another. Unfortunately, Canada has lackluster private sector investment in critical areas, such as\u00a0AI adoption<\/a>,\u00a0clean technology adoption<\/a>,\u00a0technology commercialization<\/a>,\u00a0adaptation to climate change<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0critical mineral development<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Without significant action, Canada could\u00a0slip out<\/a>\u00a0of the Top 10 global economies and see a\u00a0declining standard of living<\/a>\u00a0in the coming decades.<\/p>\n

It would be easy to blame the private sector, but companies often have good reasons to delay investment. Those facing an uncertain trading relationship with the U.S. may be making the right call in\u00a0putting off investments<\/a>\u00a0in automation or AI adoption. China\u2019s dominance of critical mineral markets keeps prices\u00a0too low or uncertain<\/a>\u00a0to spur major investments in mining or processing.<\/p>\n

What can be done to overcome near-term barriers to private investments that are in Canada\u2019s long-term national interest? That\u2019s where\u00a0smart industrial policy<\/a>\u00a0can play a key role.<\/p>\n

Private investment in the national interest<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Canadian governments are already actively using industrial policy to drive private investment toward certain activities, such as\u00a0trade infrastructure<\/a>,\u00a0technology commercialization<\/a>,\u00a0critical mineral development<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0agricultural technology adoption<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The governments are using tools such as\u00a0investment tax credits<\/a>,\u00a0targeted procurement<\/a>,\u00a0contracts for difference<\/a>,\u00a0offtake agreements<\/a>,\u00a0below-market loans<\/a>\u00a0and more. The goal is to reduce the barriers holding back private investment in strategic areas and to design a policy that works at the least cost to the taxpayer.<\/p>\n

The use of industrial policy is likely to increase as governments seek to secure a foothold in new global markets, retain high-potential companies and improve lagging productivity. But given the stakes involved, it will be critical that governments do more to ensure they get industrial policy right.<\/p>\n

Canadian governments could learn from Australia\u2019s approach.<\/p>\n

For example, when it introduced its critical minerals production tax incentive in 2024, the government published an\u00a0impact analysis<\/a>\u00a0that analyzed the policy problem which the tax was aimed at solving; the barriers the private sector faced; the sufficiency of government intervention; and the need for additional government intervention, with a cost-benefit analysis of three policy options.<\/p>\n

It also listed a series of success metrics to ensure that the policy has the intended long-term effect.<\/p>\n

This type of analytical rigour and transparency could go a long way toward delivering industrial policy excellence and improving public confidence in the ability of Canadian governments to deliver results.<\/p>\n

Choosing to be the bulldozer requires a smart strategy<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Structural changes to the global economy are coming. If Canada wants to maintain its place as a Top 10 global economy, governments will need bold industrial policies that enable Canadian companies to seize opportunities.<\/p>\n

But those policies need to be smart, with careful design and implementation that achieve results without breaking the bank. Now is not the time for big announcements with little follow-through. Canada needs thoughtful, deliberate policy interventions backed by analysis and skilled teams to ensure smooth implementation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by Policy Options on Sept. 9, 2025. By Rachel Samson Big changes are coming to the global economy and the stakes are high for Canada. Over many decades, we have built [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":67098,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[2435,322,13,2929,14,2477],"class_list":{"0":"post-67097","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-opinion","8":"tag-ai","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-canada","11":"tag-carney","12":"tag-featured","13":"tag-industrial-policy"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nglobal economy - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With a new trading relationship with the US, big changes are coming to the global economy and the stakes are high for Canada.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/opinion\/opinion-bulldozer-or-bystander-canadas-stakes-in-the-new-global-economy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"global economy - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With a new trading relationship with the US, big changes are coming to the global economy and the stakes are high for Canada.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/opinion\/opinion-bulldozer-or-bystander-canadas-stakes-in-the-new-global-economy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/energimedia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-09-23T17:39:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/global-economy-Sean-Kilpatrick-CP.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Energi Staff\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@EnergiMedia\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@EnergiMedia\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Energi Staff\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/opinion\\\/opinion-bulldozer-or-bystander-canadas-stakes-in-the-new-global-economy\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/opinion\\\/opinion-bulldozer-or-bystander-canadas-stakes-in-the-new-global-economy\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Energi Staff\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/07051d0cfb14da284c97fb8ff214caf7\"},\"headline\":\"Opinion: Bulldozer or bystander? 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