{"id":67071,"date":"2025-09-16T13:46:21","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T20:46:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=67071"},"modified":"2025-09-16T13:46:21","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T20:46:21","slug":"how-low-oil-prices-turned-trumps-call-to-drill-baby-drill-into-a-pipe-dream","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/how-low-oil-prices-turned-trumps-call-to-drill-baby-drill-into-a-pipe-dream\/","title":{"rendered":"How low oil prices turned Trump\u2019s call to \u2018drill, baby, drill\u2019 into a pipe dream"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>This article was published by <a href=\"https:\/\/grist.org\/energy\/oil-prices-trump-fossil-fuel-drilling\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Grist<\/a> on Sept. 16, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>By <a class=\"byline-link\" href=\"https:\/\/grist.org\/author\/naveena-sadasivam\/\">Naveena Sadasivam<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">When President Donald Trump took office, he promised to \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/presidential-actions\/2025\/01\/unleashing-american-energy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">unleash American energy<\/a>\u201d \u2014 and quickly left no doubt that he meant\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us\/trump-will-declare-national-energy-emergency-incoming-administration-official-2025-01-20\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">fossil fuel energy in particular<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">In the months since, he has opened up vast stretches of public lands and U.S. oceans for drilling and reduced the royalty rates that companies must pay for extracting oil and gas in those areas. His administration has also proposed\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/newsreleases\/epa-launches-biggest-deregulatory-action-us-history\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">scrapping environmental rules<\/a>\u00a0requiring polluters to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/newsreleases\/epa-releases-proposal-end-burdensome-costly-greenhouse-gas-reporting-program-saving-24\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">report their emissions to the EPA<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/newsreleases\/epa-releases-proposal-end-burdensome-costly-greenhouse-gas-reporting-program-saving-24\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">easing regulations for oil and gas wastewater disposal<\/a>, and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/newsreleases\/epa-announces-reconsideration-risk-management-plan-boost-safety-competitiveness\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">rewriting rules to weaken risk management protocols at refineries<\/a>. And by declaring a national energy emergency, Trump has\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.doi.gov\/pressreleases\/department-interior-implements-emergency-permitting-procedures-strengthen-domestic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">cleared the way for faster permitting<\/a>\u00a0primarily for fossil fuel infrastructure, bringing down review timelines from multiple years to a few weeks. Trump\u2019s signature legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, quietly included\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/us-taxpayers-will-pay-billions-in-new-fossil-fuel-subsidies-thanks-to-the-big-beautiful-bill\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">billions of dollars in new federal tax breaks<\/a>\u00a0available to fossil fuel companies. More substantially, it dramatically scaled back federal support for wind and solar energy, as well as electric vehicles \u2014 effectively dealing a blow to the newer technologies competing with oil and gas interests.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">But the boom times Trump has promised U.S. fossil fuel producers have not materialized. In fact, the industry is headed in the opposite direction: In recent months, Chevron said it would\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/c8ed3n1zw05o\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">cut as much as one-fifth of its workforce<\/a>, ConocoPhillips announced plans to let go of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/world-at-work\/conocophillips-says-it-will-cut-workforce-by-20-25-shares-fall-2025-09-03\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">up to a quarter of its workforce<\/a>\u00a0by the end of the year, and Halliburton\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/world-at-work\/halliburton-reduces-workforce-oil-activity-slumps-sources-say-2025-09-05\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">began its own round of layoffs<\/a>. Across the sector, companies have also\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Energy\/Crude-Oil\/Big-Oil-Cuts-Back-as-60-Oil-Bites.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">been reining in spending<\/a>, cutting capital expenditures, pausing or canceling major projects, and reducing rig counts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family hang-punc-medium\">\u201cWe believe we are at a tipping point for U.S. oil production at current commodity prices,\u201d\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.diamondbackenergy.com\/news-releases\/news-release-details\/letter-stockholders-issued-diamondback-energy-inc-7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">warned Travis Stice<\/a>, CEO of Diamondback Energy, a Texas-based oil and gas company, in May. \u201cToday\u2019s prices, volatility, and macroeconomic uncertainty have put [the industry\u2019s] progress in jeopardy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">Since Trump\u2019s inauguration in January, crude oil prices have\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/dnav\/pet\/hist\/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=RWTC&amp;f=M\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">dropped nearly 20 per cent<\/a>. That\u2019s left prices below the roughly $65-per-barrel level where most U.S. producers can expect to break even on drilling, and they\u2019re cutting back in anticipation of these unprofitable extraction conditions lasting into 2026. Indeed, the Energy Information Agency projects that oil prices, which currently sit at about $62 per barrel, will\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/outlooks\/steo\/pdf\/steo_full.pdf?ref=eltiempolatino.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">drop to $51 per barrel next year<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">This reflects the makeup of the global oil market, which Trump has far less control over compared to the domestic regulations he\u2019s attacked. In Saudi Arabia, for instance, where drilling costs are among the lowest in the world,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/digest\/jan18\/limits-opec-output-increase-global-oil-production-costs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a barrel of oil costs at most $10 to extract<\/a>. So when the global price of oil drops, as it has this year, American producers feel the squeeze \u2014 but national oil companies in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, continue to be profitable.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">So even though Trump has called for more drilling to lower domestic gasoline prices, American companies see little reason to pump more oil when prices are below the break-even point. The result reveals a paradox in the administration\u2019s pursuit of what it calls \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/grist.org\/language\/trump-energy-dominance-vibes-nostalgia-oil\/\">energy dominance<\/a>\u201d: It wants both lower prices and more drilling, but the former automatically discourages the latter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family hang-punc-medium\">\u201cThe goal of energy dominance is perhaps not fully aligned with the goal of low oil prices without significant innovation,\u201d said Susan Bell, a senior vice president at Rystad Energy, an independent research firm, in an emailed statement. \u201cIncreasing U.S. production in a world that is oversupplied with oil in the near term would certainly drive prices down, ultimately making investment in the sector uneconomic.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">That disconnect has been on full display this year. Even as Trump promised boom times for the oil and gas industry, he has called on OPEC to increase production as a means to fulfill his promise to lower gasoline prices for Americans. In a January speech, he told OPEC to \u201cbring down the oil price,\u201d and in March he said that it was \u201cvery important that OPEC increase the flow of oil\u201d in a social media post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">The following month, OPEC announced it would increase production at a time when oil prices were already at a four-year low, taking industry analysts by surprise. While the move may have been an attempt to appease Trump, it was also an opportunity to assert dominance over American companies and increase the cartel\u2019s market share. The increased production also acts as a buffer against price volatility by creating oversupply that can be tapped in times of crisis. There has been no shortage of the latter in recent years, with escalating conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family hang-punc-medium\">\u201cAll this extra supply creates a cushion,\u201d said Trey Cowan, an oil and gas analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, which tracks the rise of renewable energy and its impact on fossil fuels. \u201cEvents like the hunting down of people in Qatar by Israel \u2014 normally, that would be a crisis situation. Oil prices would spike tremendously. And while they did surge, they came right back down.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">Trump\u2019s tariffs haven\u2019t helped the U.S. fossil fuel industry either. His surcharges on steel and aluminum, two metals ubiquitously used in oil and gas infrastructure, have increased the cost of production. \u201cThe cost of our largest drilling input cost, casing, has increased over 10 per cent in the last quarter due to steel tariffs,\u201d Stice, the Diamondback Energy CEO, noted in his letter to shareholders.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">Cowan said that, while oil prices rise and fall periodically, the industry is facing a highly volatile market at a time when gasoline demand is poised to take a hit from the growing adoption of electric vehicles. In its drive to find new markets, the industry invested heavily in refineries producing plastics. But there, too, the industry is now facing oversupply and slim profit margins.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family hang-punc-medium\">\u201cYou\u2019re running out of places to use the oil, so then you\u2019re creating an oversupply condition that\u2019s going to continue for a longer period of time,\u201d said Cowan. \u201cThere is some expectation that oil prices could be lower for an extended period of time.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>This article was published by Grist on Sept. 16, 2025. By Naveena Sadasivam When President Donald Trump took office, he promised to \u201cunleash American energy\u201d \u2014 and quickly left no doubt that he meant\u00a0fossil fuel <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/how-low-oil-prices-turned-trumps-call-to-drill-baby-drill-into-a-pipe-dream\/\" title=\"How low oil prices turned Trump\u2019s call to \u2018drill, baby, drill\u2019 into a pipe dream\">[Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":67072,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[590,891,14,95,584,560],"class_list":{"0":"post-67071","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-economy","9":"tag-eia","10":"tag-featured","11":"tag-fossil-fuels","12":"tag-trump","13":"tag-us-government"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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