{"id":67066,"date":"2025-09-16T13:38:20","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T20:38:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=67066"},"modified":"2025-09-16T14:11:50","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T21:11:50","slug":"iea-to-project-continuing-oil-and-gas-growth-as-u-s-arm-twisting-intensifies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/iea-to-project-continuing-oil-and-gas-growth-as-u-s-arm-twisting-intensifies\/","title":{"rendered":"IEA to project continuing oil and gas growth as U.S. arm-twisting intensifies"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>This article was published by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/iea-to-project-continuing-oil-and-gas-growth-as-u-s-arm-twisting-intensifies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Energy Mix<\/a> on Sept. 16, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>By <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/author\/mitchellbeer\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mitchell Beer<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"jeg_custom_content_wrapper single-post-content \">\n<div class=\"entry-content no-share\">\n<div class=\"content-inner\">\n<p>After some severe arm-twisting by the Trump administration, the International Energy Agency (IEA) may be on the verge of watering down four years of energy analysis that has shown global fossil fuel demand peaking this decade before going into permanent decline.<\/p>\n<p>In May 2021, the IEA\u2019s annual World Energy Outlook (WEO)\u2014which it\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20210220083719\/https:\/www.iea.org\/topics\/world-energy-outlook\">styled at the time<\/a>\u00a0as the \u201cgold standard of energy analysis\u201d\u2014included a full net-zero emissions scenario that\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/its-the-end-of-oil-blockbuster-iea-report-urges-no-new-fossil-development\/\">called<\/a>\u00a0for no new investment in oil, gas, or coal development. Instead, the scenario showed a massive increase in renewable energy adoption, speedy global phaseouts for new natural gas boilers and internal combustion vehicles, and a sharp focus on short-term action to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that are supercharging the global climate emergency.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBeyond projects already committed as of 2021, there are no new oil and gas fields approved for development in our pathway, and no new coal mines or mine extensions are required,\u201d the IEA wrote at the time. \u201cThe unwavering policy focus on climate change in the net-zero pathway results in a sharp decline in fossil fuel demand, meaning that the focus for oil and gas producers switches entirely to output\u2014and emissions reductions\u2014from the operation of existing assets.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Since then, in the WEO and a slew of other publications, the IEA has\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/iea-proclaims-age-of-electricity-as-batteries-solar-surge-but-emissions-still-way-off-course\/\">proclaimed<\/a>\u00a0an emerging \u201cAge of Electricity\u201d, consistently projecting an imminent plateau for all three fossil fuels followed by falling demand.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">25 Years of Oil and Gas Growth<\/h2>\n<p>Now, Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2025-09-11\/peak-fossil-fuel-demand-is-a-crumbling-myth\">says<\/a>\u00a0this year\u2019s World Energy Outlook, due to be published in early November, will include a scenario that calls for \u201cdecades more of robust fossil fuel use, with oil and gas demand growing over the next 25 years.\u201d Blas, who declares his own skepticism for the IEA\u2019s net-zero analysis, says that outcome \u201cisn\u2019t just possible but probable\u201d based on the report, which \u201cmeans more carbon dioxide emissions that exacerbate the climate crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Blas explains that the WEO is never a forecast, but rather a set of energy future scenario based on assumptions about economic activity, population growth, energy prices, the pace of new technologies, and\u2014perhaps most important these days\u2014political will. \u201cWhile not a crystal ball, the scenarios do offer important insights,\u201d he writes.<\/p>\n<p>For years, independent analysts have published graphs showing the gap between the IEA\u2019s modest projections for the growth of energy transition technologies like wind and solar and the much faster pace at which those options are actually gaining ground. The gap was most pronounced in a scenario based on governments\u2019 current policies (Current Policy Scenario, or CPS) that the agency stopped publishing in 2020. It retained two other scenarios: one based on stated policies (Stated Policies Scenario, or STEPS) that were either in effect or under development, another that assumed countries would keep all their energy and climate promises, in full and on time (Announced Pledges Scenario, or APS).<\/p>\n<p>Both of those scenarios currently show fossil fuel demand and the resulting carbon dioxide emissions peaking in 2029 and then starting to fall\u2014more slowly in the STEPS scenario, more quickly under APS. \u201cThe decline was so meaningful under the latter that it gave credence to the idea that trillions of dollars\u2019 worth of fossil fuel reserves would be left stranded,\u201d Blas writes. \u201cWestern policymakers became convinced that the new scenarios represented something akin to a forecast\u2014and thus that demand would indeed drop.<\/p>\n<p>But now, partly due to pressure from the Trump administration, Blas says the IEA is restoring its Current Policy Scenario, and it will show oil and gas demand continuing to grow through 2050. The IEA didn\u2019t comment for Blas\u2019 column, but he cites a half-dozen reviewers who\u2019ve seen an early draft of the report.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOil remains the largest single fuel\u201d through 2050, the report apparently states, followed by renewables, then gas and coal.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Strong-Arm Tactics<\/h2>\n<p>Blas says strong-arm tactics from the United States were just one factor in the IEA\u2019s change in emphasis. But his column appears less than two months after Trump\u2019s Energy Secretary Chris Wright openly\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/u-s-threatens-to-quit-iea-if-analysis-keeps-projecting-renewable-energy-future\/\">threatened<\/a>\u00a0to pull the U.S. and its funding out of the IEA if the Paris-based agency continued projecting a strong future for renewable energy.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe will do one of two things: we will reform the way the IEA operates or we will withdraw,\u201d Wright told Bloomberg in July. \u201cMy strong preference is to reform it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Those comments mirrored criticisms of the IEA\u2019s modelling by U.S. Senate Republicans\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.energy.senate.gov\/2024\/3\/barrasso-mcmorris-rodgers-international-energy-agency-has-abandoned-its-energy-security-mission\">dating back<\/a>\u00a0to March 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Blas says the restored CPS will be just one of the scenarios the IEA publishes in this year\u2019s World Energy Outlook, while others will show other pathways. And \u201cthe Current Policy Scenario isn\u2019t a forecast,\u201d he stresses. \u201cIt\u2019s a snapshot of what the world may look like in 25 years if nothing changes and governments sit on their hands. In the past, the scenario tended to undercount renewables and favour incumbent sources of energy, such as oil, gas, and coal; so if history is a guide, it could be off\u2014perhaps significantly.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But the WEO still plays an important role in setting the assumptions that guide policy decisions by governments and multi-billion-dollar financial decisions by investors\u2014and that\u2019s especially true of the scenario that receives lead treatment in the IEA\u2019s executive summaries and media materials. That\u2019s why this year\u2019s policy pivot could be just as important as the IEA\u2019s 2021 shift\u2014in which Canada reportedly played an important behind-the-scenes role, as\u00a0<em>The Energy Mix\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/exclusive-canada-helped-prod-iea-for-net-zero-pathway\/\">revealed<\/a>\u00a0at the time.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2018Narrative Battle\u2019<\/h2>\n<p>Climate and energy researcher Greg Muttitt, a former Oil Change International staffer involved in past critiques of IEA modelling, says the imminent shift in this year\u2019s World Energy Outlook responds to a \u201cnarrative battle\u201d the Trump administration is fighting against the real-world reality that renewable energy prices are falling and deployment is speeding up.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe U.S. administration wants people to believe that fossil fuels will have a bright future, hoping that this can become a self-fulfilling prophecy,\u201d he\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/posts\/greg-muttitt-1bbb85113_%F0%9D%97%A0%F0%9D%97%B6%F0%9D%98%80%F0%9D%97%BF%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%97%B1%F0%9D%97%B6%F0%9D%97%BB%F0%9D%97%B4-%F0%9D%98%81%F0%9D%97%B5%F0%9D%97%B2-%F0%9D%97%B3%F0%9D%98%82%F0%9D%98%81%F0%9D%98%82%F0%9D%97%BF%F0%9D%97%B2-activity-7372301247321653250-55U8\/\">writes<\/a>\u00a0on LinkedIn. \u201cBut overly-optimistic fossil narratives lead to economic risks, both for investors and for countries whose economies depend on oil and gas revenues, such as Nigeria and Iraq.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Muttitt says it\u2019s a misinterpretation to say the new CPS scenario will declare future oil and gas demand growth as not just possible, but probable, since the IEA \u201ccarefully avoids describing any scenario as most probable\u201d. He adds that all the world\u2019s major forecasters except the OPEC oil cartel and the U.S. Energy Information Administration are projecting peak oil before 2030.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFar from being a radical view, STEPS is in the middle of this pack,\u201d he writes. \u201cSo far, oil and gas decline has outpaced STEPS projections.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wpb_text_column wpb_content_element vc_custom_1745333769377 post-footer-shortcodes\">\n<div class=\"wpb_wrapper\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>This article was published by The Energy Mix on Sept. 16, 2025. By Mitchell Beer After some severe arm-twisting by the Trump administration, the International Energy Agency (IEA) may be on the verge of watering <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/iea-to-project-continuing-oil-and-gas-growth-as-u-s-arm-twisting-intensifies\/\" title=\"IEA to project continuing oil and gas growth as U.S. arm-twisting intensifies\">[Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":67067,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[14,16,584,598,1911],"class_list":{"0":"post-67066","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-featured","9":"tag-oil-and-gas","10":"tag-trump","11":"tag-us","12":"tag-world-energy-outlook"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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