{"id":66996,"date":"2025-09-02T11:29:27","date_gmt":"2025-09-02T18:29:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=66996"},"modified":"2025-09-02T11:29:27","modified_gmt":"2025-09-02T18:29:27","slug":"opinion-when-nation-building-goes-wrong-carney-hodgson-must-think-bigger-than-lng-exports","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/opinion\/opinion-when-nation-building-goes-wrong-carney-hodgson-must-think-bigger-than-lng-exports\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: When \u2018nation-building\u2019 goes wrong: Carney, Hodgson must think bigger than LNG exports"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix Weekender<\/a> on Sept. 1, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Mitchell Beer<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

With Prime Minister Mark Carney and Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson just back from their liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales trip to Germany, the nation-building projects they crave are busting out all over.<\/p>\n

Just not in the way they seem to expect, or in the places they\u2019re most avidly looking for them.<\/p>\n

During their sojourn in Berlin Tuesday and Wednesday, the PM and his former Goldman Sachs and Bank of Canada colleague distinguished themselves by touting the promising market they see in Germany for a fuel that much of the world is looking to leave behind, or will be soon enough. LNG is emerging as a centrepiece of their quest for\u00a0\u201cnation-building\u201d projects<\/a>\u00a0to diversify Canada\u2019s economy and assert our sovereignty against Donald Trump\u2019s tariff warfare and\u00a0annexation threats<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think you\u2019re probably talking about five to seven years,\u201d Hodgson\u00a0told<\/a>\u00a0Politico EU in an interview Wednesday, adding that he\u2019d been surprised by long-term interest from German industry in LNG supplies that are typically seen as climate-unfriendly. \u201cThey believe that there will be more LNG required and for longer as a transition fuel,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Wow! The German gas and utility industry is touting strong future demand for gas? Stop the virtual presses!<\/p>\n

In fairness, Hodgson\u2019s department, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), responded with good detail and substance when\u00a0The Energy Mix<\/em>\u00a0asked where they saw reliable demand for a 15- to 20-year gas export contract. A senior media advisor\u00a0cited<\/a>\u00a0modelling by energy analytics firm Wood Mackenzie that shows European gas demand peaking by the mid-2030s, with export opportunities beyond 2035.<\/p>\n

But NRCan acknowledged that Canada is a long way from a firm LNG deal. \u201cThese are very much exploratory discussions at this time,\u201d the advisor told\u00a0The Mix<\/em>\u00a0in an email. \u201cCommercially viable projects that have the support of the province, and affected Indigenous communities will be considered by the federal government. Regulatory approvals would follow existing processes and the decision to build lies with proponents and investors.\u201d<\/p>\n

Big Questions About Gas<\/strong><\/h2>\n

No one is seriously suggesting we can shut down gas production tomorrow. But the uncertainties around global gas markets and future demand\u00a0date back a decade or more<\/a>, and the case is getting weaker, not stronger. Users of all kinds, from households to big data centres, are looking for affordable, hyper-reliable energy that is quick to install and keeps the lights on in a heat wave or storm. On any of those criteria, gas can\u2019t match the performance of wind or solar with battery backup, supported by heat pumps and building retrofits to boost efficiency.<\/p>\n

At some point, you have to wonder\u2026if economic diversification through new trading partners is the point of the exercise, can you call it a nation-building project if you can foresee a time when no other nation will want you to build it?<\/p>\n

In Europe, in particular, countries learned another brutal and heartbreaking lesson over the last 3\u00bd years. After Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, then tried to use oil and gas dependency as a pressure point on European neighbours,\u00a0energy independence<\/a>\u00a0became the continent\u2019s rallying cry. The EU couldn\u2019t turn on a dime (or a Eurocent) to dump gas completely. But faster energy efficiency improvements and wider renewable energy deployment were the\u00a0quickest, best ways<\/a>\u00a0to prevent a dictator from using fossil fuel exports as a weapon of war. Fast forward to this year\u2019s tariff negotiations between the EU and the Trump administration, and getting out from under fossil fuels is the way to avoid a\u00a0$750-billion shakedown<\/a>\u00a0by another dictator.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s good to know that there was some actual number-crunching behind Hodgson\u2019s very optimistic, five- to seven-year timeline. But the WoodMac modelling runs counter to a small mountain of analysis, all of it suggesting that more LNG is the last thing Germany or Europe will need.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the medium and long term, we\u2019re not anticipating an increase in gas demand, certainly not in Western Europe,\u201d Pawel Czyzak, Europe programme director at the Ember energy think tank, told\u00a0The Mix<\/em>\u00a0in an email last week, with consumption already down 17% between 2021 and 2024 and set to shrink further through 2030 as the economy electrifies. The continent \u201cis already heavily oversupplied towards 2030,\u201d he added, and \u201cthat oversupply will get even more severe if the questionable fossil fuel imports from the EU-U.S. trade [and tariff deal] are implemented.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cCutting dependency on gas from Russia or any other country can be achieved if gas consumption reduction measures continue in place,\u201d added Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst, Europe at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. With an affordable energy action plan in place, \u201cthe bloc could satisfy demand without additional gas infrastructure or increased imports.\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s Also a Climate Bomb<\/h2>\n

All of those legit, important arguments against gas are proxies for the reality that it\u2019s also a climate bomb.<\/p>\n

The gas industry everywhere has done a great job of spinning its product as a \u201cclean\u201d transition fuel and a reasonable gateway to a low-carbon future. But the main component of natural gas is methane, a climate super-pollutant with 84 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide over the crucial, 20-year span when we\u2019ll all be scrambling to get climate change under control.<\/p>\n

Methane leaks into the atmosphere at every step in the gas production process\u2014from fracking, to pipeline transport, to the ships that carry LNG across oceans\u2014and the industry has been\u00a0famously inept<\/a>\u00a0at accurately measuring and reporting leaks. Methane controls are\u00a0widely recognized<\/a>\u00a0as one of the quickest, cheapest paths to the deepest possible emission reductions through 2030. Yet methane regulations are always on the hit list when fossil lobbyists and their\u00a0hired hands<\/a>\u00a0like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith insist on killing off the minimal, often ineffective government regulations they face.<\/p>\n

Nation-Building That Builds Our Future<\/strong><\/h2>\n

LNG is the dominant but not the only flavour of nation-building project on the federal government\u2019s agenda. In Germany last week, Carney also signed a\u00a0declaration of intent<\/a>\u00a0for critical mineral development. Regional clean power grids are\u00a0on the agenda<\/a>, although completing an\u00a0east-west grid<\/a>\u00a0doesn\u2019t seem to be a priority. And the PM has talked in general terms about energy efficiency as a goal for the emerging\u00a0Build Canada Homes<\/a>\u00a0affordable housing program.<\/p>\n

But that\u2019s just one corner of the menu of nation-building projects the government could adopt to build Canada\u2019s strength and solidarity from the ground up\u2014while bringing us the ultimate safety and security of helping to get climate change under control.<\/p>\n

\u2022 The first piece of this puzzle must be a good idea, because it comes directly from our readers (or as public broadcasting would have us say,\u00a0from readers like you!<\/em>).<\/p>\n

After emergency physician Nicolas Chagnon submitted this\u00a0well-argued case<\/a>\u00a0for a federal rooftop solar program, two other readers, Martin Benum and Ron Moore, chimed in with detailed comments on what it would take to make those projects work. It wasn\u2019t that the post received dozens of replies, more that the discussion immediately got so specific and substantive. It brought home to me that, just like the push for\u00a0balcony solar<\/a>\u00a0in Europe and the U.S. state of Utah, the obstacle to faster renewable energy deployment isn\u2019t public demand. It\u2019s the rules, regulations, and financing models that are\u00a0holding us back<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Quebec is going all-in on wind power with a target of 10,000 megawatts of new capacity by 2035, much or most of it developed in partnership with Indigenous communities. \u201cIn Quebec, we spend $10 billion a year on fossil fuel supplies,\u201d\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0Energy Minister Christine Fr\u00e9chette. \u201cThat\u2019s crazy. So let\u2019s take some of that money and invest it in renewable energy, which will generate benefits for Quebecers and clearly transform the Quebec economy, in addition to contributing to the well-being of the planet.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cPrediction: this sentiment is going to catch on in other Canadian provinces and in fossil fuel import-dependent jurisdictions worldwide, as it should,\u201d Dan Woynillowicz, principal of Polaris Strategy + Insight,\u00a0commented<\/a>\u00a0on LinkedIn.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Efficiency Canada is\u00a0pushing hard<\/a>\u00a0on the arguments for energy efficiency as a nation-building project that can produce quick results, boost productivity, support Canadian businesses and technology, deliver regional fairness, and help build a \u201cmore adaptable and tariff-proofed economy\u201d. But the Building Decarbonization Alliance\u00a0warned<\/a>\u00a0last month that the clock is beginning to tick on a deep energy retrofit initiative that could be a \u201cmegaproject moving in slow motion\u201d if it\u2019s allowed to meet its full potential, but will sink without a trace if Carney\u2019s government forgets or neglects to renew it.<\/p>\n

Which may happen if they\u2019re too preoccupied with their LNG adventures to pay attention to the stuff that is actually poised to deliver results.<\/p>\n

\u2022 In new construction, modular housing companies like CABN are setting the pace with affordable, factory-built homes that are quicker to complete and, in CABN\u2019s telling, can be\u00a0net-zero or even net-negative<\/a>\u00a0for emissions. There are a lot of detailed claims baked into that calculation and it\u2019s up to regulators to verify the results. But with housing already high on the federal agenda, there\u2019s an opportunity for Ottawa to turn the affordability crisis into an essential nation-building moment\u2014and make the net-zero performance pioneered by CABN a baseline requirement for grants and incentives when bigger players\u00a0enter the prefab space<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u2022 In agriculture, Canadian farmers were eager enough to embrace soil carbon storage, nitrogen fertilizer reductions, and other emission reduction options that the $200-million On-Farm Climate Action Fund\u00a0ran out of funds<\/a>\u00a0ahead of schedule\u2014making it the first but\u00a0not the last<\/a>\u00a0Trudeau-era program that federal financial minders declared too successful to continue. Agrivoltaics are quickly emerging as a\u00a0win-win<\/a>\u00a0for farmers, rural communities, solar developers, and even avowedly hostile regimes like the Danielle Smith government\u2014as the Vatican is now\u00a0showing<\/a>\u00a0with a\u00a0project outside Rome<\/a>. (Hat tip to another reader, Diane Beckett, for pointing us to that last link.)<\/p>\n

\u2022 To help rural communities build stable, diversified economies that don\u2019t begin and end with fossil fuels, we\u2019re hearing more and more that a local solar or wind farm won\u2019t be a big source of long-term jobs once it\u2019s built\u2014once the installation is done, the main job \u201cbaaa-nefit<\/a>\u201d will go to the sheep or goats brought in to clear the brush around the panels. (Yes, we went there. Again.) But the prospect of reliable, local power at 6\u00a2 per kilowatt hour will draw the investors that will make a local economic development officer\u2019s heart sing.<\/p>\n

\u2022 And no nation-building effort will be complete without facing down the massive rise in youth unemployment,\u00a0across Canada<\/a>\u00a0and particularly\u00a0in Ontario<\/a>. If Carney and his team want to get serious about job creation for the generation we always say we\u2019re thinking of when we talk about climate change, a\u00a0Youth Climate Corps<\/a>\u00a0would get the job done\u2014but not if it\u2019s just a\u00a0token pilot project<\/a>. Watch\u00a0The Energy Mix<\/a><\/em>\u00a0for an upcoming feature interview with Climate Emergency Unit Team Lead Seth Klein, who distinguishes the YCC\u2019s promise of meaningful work for a living wage with some of the recent calls for mandatory national service.<\/p>\n

[Disclosure:\u00a0<\/em>Energy Mix\u00a0community engagement staffers Mike Hager and Lella Blumer are on part-time assignment with the\u00a0Climate Emergency Unit<\/a>, where part of their job is to help amplify the case for the Youth Climate Corps.]<\/em><\/p>\n

All of these initiatives are practical, affordable, and ready to scale up. And, unlike the government\u2019s economically tenuous LNG agenda, they all bring climate solutions and PM Carney\u2019s stated\u00a0Value(s)<\/a>\u00a0back to the centre of the conversation.<\/p>\n

A Plan That Meets the Moment<\/strong><\/h2>\n

It\u2019s easy enough to sort through the spin and pick apart the Carney government\u2019s latest LNG adventure. But those facts and arguments miss the point if they don\u2019t get at the real point of the exercise.<\/p>\n

For better and for worse, Carney was elected with one overarching job: to protect Canada from the predatory sociopath currently occupying the White House. If in doubt, Job #2 is to refer back to Job #1. It isn\u2019t the way we should have to spend our time and resources when we have climate change and a host of overlapping crises to address. But it\u2019s what we\u2019ve got, largely thanks to\u00a0obscene levels<\/a>\u00a0of\u00a0campaign financing<\/a>\u00a0from the U.S. fossil industry.<\/p>\n

And now, Canada and Germany seem to have concluded that anything else they hope to achieve depends on projecting strength in terms that Donald Trump will understand. If that\u2019s what was going on last week in Berlin\u2014and I\u2019ve heard no one say that out loud\u2014it\u00a0wouldn\u2019t be the first time<\/a>\u00a0that Trump theatre has taken the place of real, practical policy in the international sphere.<\/p>\n

But nations are built on real results, not theatre. So even if a desperation move to embrace LNG is seen as one way to keep our #ElbowsUp, we also have to keep our hearts, minds, and hands open to real nation-building initiatives that will bring us the country we want in a liveable, zero-carbon future.<\/p>\n

Which isn\u2019t anything that Carney doesn\u2019t already know, hasn\u2019t already\u00a0told us<\/a>\u00a0in his own words.<\/p>\n

\u201cClimate policy has never been just about the environment,\u201d\u00a0writes<\/a>\u00a0Simon Donner, co-chair of Canada\u2019s Net-Zero Advisory Body,\u00a0last seen<\/a>\u00a0warning Team Carney that the \u201cgrand bargain\u201d they want on oil and gas could get them in trouble with the new trading partners they\u2019re trying to develop.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe reality is that good climate policy is\u00a0good economic policy<\/a>,\u201d Donner adds. \u201cDespite headwinds south of the border, climate action and the transition to clean energy are accelerating. Emissions have decreased across the G7 over the last two decades. The global market for the six key clean energy technologies\u2014solar cells, wind turbines, electric vehicles, batteries, electrolysers, and heat pumps\u2014quadrupled in size over the last decade, buoyed by >90% drop in costs. The real question is whether we are willing to make the up-front policy and infrastructure investments today to build future\u00a0low-carbon industries<\/a>\u00a0and transition to a\u00a0low-carbon energy system<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix Weekender on Sept. 1, 2025. 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