{"id":66729,"date":"2025-05-20T11:19:27","date_gmt":"2025-05-20T18:19:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=66729"},"modified":"2025-05-20T11:19:27","modified_gmt":"2025-05-20T18:19:27","slug":"opinion-one-energy-path-brings-carney-the-big-wins-he-needs-the-other-one-doesnt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/opinion-one-energy-path-brings-carney-the-big-wins-he-needs-the-other-one-doesnt\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: One energy path brings Carney the big wins he needs. The other one doesn’t."},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix<\/a> on May 17, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Mitchell Beer<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Prime Minister Mark Carney and his new cabinet took office Tuesday with some tough, momentous questions on their agenda, most of them still pointing back to the rogue regime waging economic war on Canada from the White House.<\/p>\n

But as\u00a0The Weekender\u00a0<\/em>first argued<\/a>\u00a0in March, after Carney won the Liberal Party leadership, there\u2019s one fairly easy calculation the Cabinet can make that will set them on track to addressing that challenge. Not least by tackling the domestic vulnerabilities that were driving us apart until Donald Trump\u2019s latest round of rolling outrages\u00a0pulled us back together<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s the cheapest, quickest way to deliver the reliable, affordable energy Canadians need, while boosting domestic manufacturing, driving down climate pollution, and restoring public confidence that our governments can actually deliver on their promises?<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

If our political leaders answer that question seriously and follow the evidence where it leads, it will bring them directly to a low-carbon energy path that begins with:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Drastically increasing the\u00a0energy efficiency of everything<\/a>;<\/p>\n

\u2022 Replacing fuels with electricity across a large swath of the economy while decarbonizing the electricity system;<\/p>\n

\u2022 Seizing the urgent opportunity to rapidly\u00a0drive down methane emissions<\/a>, whether or not fossil companies are serious about getting with the program;<\/p>\n

\u2022 Pairing the rise of renewables and energy efficiency with a\u00a0managed phaseout of oil, gas, and coal<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A least-cost energy strategy that factored in the fully-loaded cost of climate change would give us a lens for assessing every new pitch for Canada\u2019s energy future\u2014whether it\u2019s a deep energy retrofit program, a local battery storage system, a solar or wind farm, a\u00a0$100-billion nuclear megaproject<\/a>, or the\u00a0ridiculous demands<\/a>\u00a0for new pipelines in all directions, hatched by the fossil fuel industry and voiced by the former industry lobbyist they\u2019ve\u00a0since installed<\/a>\u00a0as Alberta\u2019s premier.<\/p>\n

Pretty much without exception, an honest answer to this one, crucial question points back to low-carbon options that are practical, affordable, and ready to scale up. They don\u2019t depend on carbon capture and storage technologies that their biggest boosters admit are\u00a0a decade away from prime time<\/a>, or expensive\u00a0direct air capture<\/a>\u00a0(DAC) adventures that still emit more carbon than they reduce. They won\u2019t either fry the planet when used as directed or saddle us with eons\u2019 worth of dangerous nuclear waste.<\/p>\n

For bonus points, they connect us to a burgeoning global clean energy economy\u2014the same one Carney\u00a0has in mind<\/a>\u00a0when he talks about diversifying our exports beyond one risky, unreliable trading partner.<\/p>\n

180\u00b0 of Speculation<\/h2>\n

Just as important, this line of thought takes us past the disconnect between statement and action\u2014between the \u201cwhat\u201d and the \u201chow\u201d of government policy on climate, affordability, and everything else that matters. That gap has cut across all the major political parties for the last deeply performative decade and quite rightly sapped public confidence that anything much will ever get done.<\/p>\n

Now, with Carney\u00a0vowing<\/a>\u00a0to \u201cdo things that had not been imagined or thought possible, at a speed we haven\u2019t seen before,\u201d his team\u2019s early energy choices will either put his government on a path to success, or make it immeasurably harder for them to get there.<\/p>\n

But in the first 100 hours after the Cabinet announcement (heh, he wants to move fast, so no more of this \u2018first 100 days\u2019 stuff), we were left with\u00a0180\u00b0 of speculation<\/a>\u00a0about where this government will come down on climate change and energy.<\/p>\n

We had Carney knowledgeably described as \u201cthe most climate-literate PM we\u2019ve ever seen, and maybe the most climate-literate leader among industrialized countries,\u201d while telling CTV news his government will \u201cchange things at the federal level that need to be changed in order for projects to move forward\u201d\u2014including the federal\u00a0Impact Assessment Act<\/em>\u00a0and the former Trudeau government\u2019s\u00a0long-delayed cap<\/a>\u00a0on oil and gas emissions.<\/p>\n

We heard that newly-minted Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson, former head of Ontario power utility Hydro One, board member at oil sands producer MEG Energy, and Carney colleague at Goldman Sachs, will either be the fossil industry\u2019s voice in Cabinet, the former business heavyweight and familiar face who can talk low-carbon sense to the oilpatch, or the steady hand who can make a national renewable power grid a reality.<\/p>\n

We saw an emphasis on pragmatism and short-term success from a government that seems enamoured of carbon capture technologies that are nowhere near ready for prime time and new nuclear reactor designs that look great on PowerPoints, but have never been built in the real world.<\/p>\n

All of which is a longabouts way of saying that no one can say for sure which lane Team Carney will choose, and you have to wonder whether they\u2019ve decided yet. The next big milestones will be the template language in the PM\u2019s mandate letters to ministers and the Throne Speech that King Charles is\u00a0scheduled to deliver<\/a>\u00a0May 27.<\/p>\n

That is, unless we hear anything sooner from Carney or his Cabinet about the climate imperatives he\u2019s known and understood for a decade or more, and the clean energy choices that give him his only chance at tackling any of the other big-picture crises he\u2019s taken on.<\/p>\n

The Projects We Want to Speed Up<\/strong><\/h2>\n

We\u2019ve known\u00a0for decades, not years<\/a>, that there\u2019s a smart, systematic way to run an energy transition. The fine details have shifted over time, but the basic prescription has not.<\/p>\n

Start by drastically increasing the\u00a0energy efficiency of everything<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Electrify key end uses like cars and other vehicles, home heating and cooling, and many industrial processes, now with the added reliability of affordable energy storage, while decarbonizing the electricity system.<\/p>\n

Make it an absolute, top priority to phase out emissions of\u00a0methane<\/a>\u2014the main component of natural gas, a climate-busting super-pollutant with 84 times the impact of carbon dioxide over a 20-year span, and our\u00a0single best chance<\/a>\u00a0to achieve major climate gains by 2030.<\/p>\n

Pay careful attention to the relatively few, more complicated energy uses\u2014like air travel and some heavy industries\u2014that aren\u2019t so simple to decarbonize.<\/p>\n

And, crucially,\u00a0cut with both arms of the scissors<\/a>\u00a0by pairing the rise of renewables and energy efficiency with a managed phaseout of the oil, gas, and coal industries whose products are frying the planet when used as directed, while devastating local\u00a0ecosystems<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0communities<\/a>\u00a0along the way.<\/p>\n

With rapid emission cuts and deeper climate resilience as our top-line goals, the energy transition also delivers on the quicker business opportunities that industry has been demanding\u2014even if those aren\u2019t the opportunities the fossil lobby has in mind when it\u2019s doing the demanding.<\/p>\n

Even at relatively large scale, solar and wind farms are faster to approve and build than fossil fuel plants, pipelines, or nuclear reactors, largely because they have a far smaller physical and environmental footprint. They generally come in on time and on budget because, unlike the most mega of megaprojects, they aren\u2019t\u00a0too big to succeed<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Go\u00a0behind the meter<\/a>, to the realm of deep energy retrofits, home heat pumps,\u00a0rooftop solar panels<\/a>,\u00a0solar+storage<\/a>, and community\u00a0microgrids<\/a>, and you can afford to speed up the process even more, as long as developers know how to open real conversations with local communities and\u00a0earn their support<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe modular nature of solar and wind construction allows for faster development and more predictable construction timelines and costs at different scales,\u201d Eyab Al-Aini, senior research associate, clean growth at the Canadian Climate Institute, told\u00a0The Weekender<\/em>\u00a0in an email earlier this year. \u201cUnlike gas turbines or nuclear generation, where pressure on a few suppliers can\u00a0limit choice and stretch timelines<\/a>, the distributed nature of solar equipment manufacturing lowers overall project execution risks.\u201d<\/p>\n

Al-Aini added that smaller projects can face lighter permitting requirements because they often \u201cbypass the transmission planning process, can leverage existing onsite assets (roofs, permits),\u201d while benefitting from fewer technical reviews and bypassing long waits to connect to the grid. And behind-the-meter solar and wind, \u201cespecially when combined with storage, can both reduce overall site energy use from the grid and also be a source of power during peak demand.\u201d<\/p>\n

Note that every megawatt of peak power demand a community can save through energy efficiency or generate behind the meter is a megawatt that needn\u2019t be supplied by methane-intensive gas plants that provincial premiers like Doug Ford are so intent on building in places like Ontario.<\/p>\n

The Road Not Taken<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Smaller-scale energy isn\u2019t quite as simple as I\u2019m making it sound, and decades ago, a decision on which kind of complexity to embrace was instrumental in bringing us the oil sands industry as we know it today.<\/p>\n

When I worked at the late, lamented\u00a0Canadian Renewable Energy News<\/em>, like any other early 1980s news outlet in a world before PDFs, we received our share of news leaks in hard copy, delivered in (literal or metaphorical) plain brown envelopes.\u00a0One draft memo<\/a>, printed on the recycled map paper that signposted its origins in the then Department of Energy, Mines and Resources, compared the costs and benefits of subsidizing a heavy oil upgrader in Alberta against an equivalent investment in a national home insulation program.<\/p>\n

Its conclusions were stunning: The insulation plan would save more energy than the upgrader would produce, creating more jobs that were more evenly distributed across the country. But federal bureaucrats were said to be petrified at the thought of staking the success of their decision on millions of individual, local choices, rather than a single, high-stakes negotiation among first ministers.<\/p>\n

You know where that story ended. The upgrader went ahead, and to this day, Canada and especially Alberta are overly dependent on the boom-and-bust industry that received that initial infusion of government largesse, and has been steadily polluting the countryside and our national politics ever since.<\/p>\n

New Pipelines Would Need Massive Subsidies<\/strong><\/h2>\n

But now, with Trump threatening Canada\u2019s very existence as a sovereign country, that history points to another advantage in accelerating the kind of energy projects we need and want. The ones that increase community control rather than obliterating it and reduce greenhouse gas emissions rather than\u00a0driving them through the roof<\/a>.<\/p>\n

From the moment the current occupant of the White House began trumping up his baseless case for tariffs and economic annexation, his allies and paymasters in the oil and gas industry knew what to do. The partly American-owned companies in the Alberta oilpatch, many of which no doubt contributed to the industry\u2019s lavish and \u201cbreathtakingly corrupt<\/a>\u201d investment in bringing Trump back to power, immediately dusted off every pipeline megaproject they\u2019d failed to push through over the last decade. Suddenly, industry lobbyists and elected officials were touting carbon bombs like the\u00a0Energy East and Northern Gateway pipelines<\/a>\u00a0as the path to our economic salvation, even the key to our national identity.<\/p>\n

When we last looked in on this topic in March, Globe and Mail columnist Adam Radwanski had a good idea of\u00a0how those questions would be answered<\/a>. The very obvious absence of any private investors tripping over each other to build new pipelines:<\/p>\n

\u2026suggests enormous subsidies would be required to attract the capital, if not outright government ownership. The rationale would have to be that given the security dangers posed by Mr. Trump, Canada can no longer rely on oil from the U.S., or flowing through the U.S., to supply eastern provinces.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

But as then-energy and natural resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson pointed out at the time,<\/p>\n

there is no way a pipeline would be completed in less than five years. That wouldn\u2019t make it much help with the threat posed this decade by Mr. Trump. And by then, the shift toward electric vehicles\u2014which Mr. Trump may slow, but won\u2019t stop outright as those vehicles get cheaper\u2014could mean less oil is needed.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Even if subsequent events have blunted the International Energy Agency\u2019s\u00a0projection<\/a>\u00a0that oil demand will peak this decade, Radwanski added, \u201cplacing a huge bet against it happening next decade isn\u2019t wildly appealing.\u201d Carney\u2019s Quebec lieutenant, former environment and climate minister Steven Guilbeault, made much the same point on Wednesday, the day after the PM\u2019s CTV interview.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think before we start talking about building an entire new pipeline, maybe we should maximize the use of existing infrastructure,\u201d Guilbeault\u00a0told<\/a>\u00a0media, noting that the $34.2-billion taxpayer liability known as the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion is still operating\u00a0below capacity<\/a>. \u201cAnd, the Canadian Energy Regulator, as well as the International Energy Agency, are telling us that probably by 2028-2029, demand for oil will peak globally, and it will also peak in Canada.\u201d<\/p>\n

It All Comes Back to Community<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Even or especially as we face down an existential external threat, we have to be honest about a legacy of resource extraction projects\u2014from fossil fuels and pipelines to\u00a0mining<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0forestry<\/a>\u2014that have too often left communities behind and their land base indelibly altered. Changing the channel on that history begins with not repeating the same old, bad old practices of\u00a0bulldozing projects<\/a>\u00a0through local objections, or\u00a0accelerating approvals and permitting<\/a>\u00a0so fast that communities can barely catch their breath, much less assess the impacts and have their say.<\/p>\n

If we\u2019re joining together to protect Canada as a nation that is different and distinct, that cannot and must not mean deregulating ourselves out of the values\u2014social and spiritual, economic and physical\u2014that we\u2019ve set out to protect.<\/p>\n

Politicians across the spectrum have been tapping into a powerful vein of community pride and purpose. It\u2019s playing out at the national level in response to an international threat. But it traces back to the people, places, and things we know and love\u2014and so much of what we\u2019re all scrambling to defend is local.<\/p>\n

That means we don\u2019t want an\u00a0ExxonMobil subsidiary<\/a>\u00a0polluting Indigenous lands and withholding the information from communities for months, or an\u00a0Australian coal magnate<\/a>\u00a0winning regulatory approval for a\u00a0widely-hated megaproject<\/a>\u00a0in the Rocky Mountain foothills, any more than we support\u00a0Elon Musk\u2019s U.S. gigafactory<\/a>\u00a0dumping waste in the Nevada desert and harassing whistleblowers who try to tell the story.<\/p>\n

It means holding clean energy projects to those same standards, even knowing that they start out delivering more benefits and fewer impacts than the fossil fuel developments they replace. And setting the expectation that renewable energy developers will consult pro-actively, listen attentively, and look at community input as an opportunity to maximize benefits, minimize impacts, and dodge major flaws in a project design before it\u2019s too late\u2014not just an exercise in box-checking.<\/p>\n

We didn\u2019t need Donald Trump to remind us that the energy transition is meant to be about building something better, not just replacing one set of crappy, corrupt industrial practices with another one. Now, Mark Carney and his Cabinet get to prove it, in a moment and on a scale where failure is not an option.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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By Mitchell Beer Prime Minister Mark Carney and his new cabinet took office Tuesday with some tough, momentous questions on their agenda, most [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":66730,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[13,787,41,80,14,266,2587,2876],"class_list":{"0":"post-66729","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-canada","9":"tag-climate","10":"tag-energy","11":"tag-environment","12":"tag-featured","13":"tag-government","14":"tag-government-policy","15":"tag-mark-carney"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCarney - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Prime Minister Mark Carney and his new cabinet took office Tuesday with some tough, momentous questions on their agenda.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/opinion-one-energy-path-brings-carney-the-big-wins-he-needs-the-other-one-doesnt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Carney - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Prime Minister Mark Carney and his new cabinet took office Tuesday with some tough, momentous questions on their agenda.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/opinion-one-energy-path-brings-carney-the-big-wins-he-needs-the-other-one-doesnt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/energimedia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-05-20T18:19:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Carney.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Energi Staff\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@EnergiMedia\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@EnergiMedia\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Energi Staff\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"11 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/news\\\/opinion-one-energy-path-brings-carney-the-big-wins-he-needs-the-other-one-doesnt\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/news\\\/opinion-one-energy-path-brings-carney-the-big-wins-he-needs-the-other-one-doesnt\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Energi Staff\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/07051d0cfb14da284c97fb8ff214caf7\"},\"headline\":\"Opinion: One energy path brings Carney the big wins he needs. 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