{"id":66722,"date":"2025-05-20T10:01:49","date_gmt":"2025-05-20T17:01:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=66722"},"modified":"2025-05-20T10:01:49","modified_gmt":"2025-05-20T17:01:49","slug":"refining-industry-risks-from-2025-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/refining-industry-risks-from-2025-hurricane-season\/","title":{"rendered":"Refining industry risks from 2025 hurricane season"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>This article was published by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=65304\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">US Energy Information Administration<\/a> on May 20, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>By Kevin Hack<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Colorado State University\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/tropical.colostate.edu\/forecasting.html\">hurricane forecast<\/a>\u00a0estimates the 2025 hurricane season will exceed the 1991\u20132020 average, with an estimate of 17 named storms, compared with a historical average of 14 storms. Meteorologists expect 13\u201318 named storms, including 3\u20136 storms with direct impacts on the United States, during this year\u2019s Atlantic hurricane season, according to reports from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.accuweather.com\/en\/hurricane\/hurricane-season-forecast-2025\/1757562\">AccuWeather<\/a>\u00a0in April.<\/p>\n<p data-type=\"indepth\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/images\/2025.05.20\/main.svg\" alt=\"petroleum refining centers in selected U.S. gulf coast states\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"source\"><strong>Data source:\u00a0<\/strong>U.S. Energy Information Administration,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/petroleum\/refinerycapacity\/\"><em>Refinery Capacity Report<\/em><\/a><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The potential for a stronger hurricane season suggests heightened risk for weather-related production outages in the U.S. oil industry, including potential refinery outages along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Last year,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=64045\">five hurricanes made landfall in the United States<\/a>, shutting in some upstream crude oil and natural gas production temporarily and disrupting petroleum product supply chains in Florida.<\/p>\n<h2>What is hurricane season?<\/h2>\n<p>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s (NOAA)\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/climo\/\">National Hurricane Center<\/a>\u00a0defines the Atlantic hurricane season as running from June 1 through November 30. Generally, June is the month when the earliest named storms begin forming in the Atlantic Basin, and the most severe hurricanes usually form in August and early September. In the United States, hurricanes most often hit the Southeast (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/tools\/glossary\/index.php?id=petroleum%20administration%20for%20defense%20district\">PADD<\/a>\u00a01C) and the U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3).<\/p>\n<h2>How do hurricanes affect petroleum refining?<\/h2>\n<p>The U.S. Gulf Coast accounts for 55 per cent of total U.S. refining capacity, with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/dnav\/pet\/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_r3b_m.htm\">Texas Gulf Coast<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/dnav\/pet\/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_r3c_m.htm\">Louisiana Gulf Coast<\/a> refining regions combined accounting for 49 per cent of total U.S. refinery capacity. These facilities risk flooding or power outages associated with major storms or hurricanes. Many refinery operators will evacuate nonessential personnel and temporarily stop production if they believe severe weather might injure employees or damage their facilities.<\/p>\n<p>Refineries that sustain major damage or flooding may be taken offline for longer periods. In 2021, Phillips 66\u2019s Alliance refinery in Belle Chase, Louisiana, permanently\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/hurricane-ida-floods-business-mississippi-river-storms-cc7d00516965e67c8c1b64baf8af8f32\">closed<\/a>\u00a0and was transitioned into a storage terminal following significant storm damage.<\/p>\n<h2>What determines the scale of a weather-related impact on markets?<\/h2>\n<p>A storm\u2019s location is the main determining factor of its impact on petroleum markets, followed by the storm\u2019s intensity. An intense storm that affects a region without refining capacity is unlikely to significantly affect overall U.S. refined petroleum supplies.<\/p>\n<p>Hurricanes can affect local logistics, distribution, and consumption in any affected area. In regions facing an impending major hurricane or other emergency, consumer behavior can also lead to regionalized price increases, local supply shortfalls, panic-buying, and spikes in fuel demand for evacuation purposes.<\/p>\n<p>Hurricanes can also disrupt supply chains for petroleum products. Fuel supplies in Florida are\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/petroleum\/weekly\/archive\/2022\/220928\/includes\/analysis_print.php\">primarily shipped on barges<\/a>\u00a0from Gulf Coast refineries, such as those in Texas and Louisiana. Hurricanes and tropical storms can lead to disruptions in these transfers. Retail stations in other regions can also be affected by logistical disruptions or power outages, which occurred in 2012 during Hurricane Sandy.<\/p>\n<h2>How much refinery capacity is at risk from hurricanes?<\/h2>\n<p>The path of a single hurricane or major storm is unlikely to affect more than a single cluster of refineries along the Gulf Coast. However, because of the total volume of refining capacity in each region, more than 1.0 million barrels per day of capacity could be temporarily taken offline in anticipation of a major storm.<\/p>\n<p>Hurricanes don\u2019t often hinder refining operations in the mid-Atlantic (PADD 1B) region, although what is now the largest refinery on the East Coast\u2014the Bayway refinery in New Jersey operated by Phillips 66\u2014was\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/idUSBRE8A41E7\/\">affected<\/a>\u00a0by Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Similar incidents or storms that limit imports into New York Harbor also present a potential risk to U.S. petroleum supplies.<\/p>\n<p>More information on energy infrastructure and potential storm risks is available in our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/atlas.eia.gov\/apps\/eia::hurricanes-cyclones-and-typhoons-1\/about\">U.S. Energy Atlas<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>This article was published by the US Energy Information Administration on May 20, 2025. By Kevin Hack Colorado State University\u2019s\u00a0hurricane forecast\u00a0estimates the 2025 hurricane season will exceed the 1991\u20132020 average, with an estimate of 17 <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/refining-industry-risks-from-2025-hurricane-season\/\" title=\"Refining industry risks from 2025 hurricane season\">[Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":66724,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[787,891,14,16,589],"class_list":{"0":"post-66722","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-climate","9":"tag-eia","10":"tag-featured","11":"tag-oil-and-gas","12":"tag-weather"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>hurricane season - 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