{"id":66629,"date":"2025-04-28T10:49:03","date_gmt":"2025-04-28T17:49:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=66629"},"modified":"2025-04-28T10:49:03","modified_gmt":"2025-04-28T17:49:03","slug":"opinion-trump-is-serious-about-annexing-canada-how-will-climate-and-energy-policy-bring-us-the-allies-we-need","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/opinion\/opinion-trump-is-serious-about-annexing-canada-how-will-climate-and-energy-policy-bring-us-the-allies-we-need\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: Trump is serious about annexing Canada. How will climate and energy policy bring us the allies we need?"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix<\/a> on April 26, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Mitchell Beer<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

This <\/em>Weekender\u00a0mostly combines material we published in late February and early April, but the context is a bit more urgent\u2026again.<\/em><\/p>\n

Monday is Election Day in Canada, and with less than 100 hours to go before polls open, Donald Trump reinserted himself into the campaign,\u00a0telling<\/a>\u00a0TIME Magazine he\u2019s \u201creally not trolling\u201d with his mutterings about turning us into a 51st state.<\/em><\/p>\n

In an interview published Friday, Trump brought the focus back to the annexation threat that\u00a0<\/em>The Weekender\u00a0and many others have been\u00a0warning about<\/a>\u00a0for months. He repeated his false claims that the U.S. is subsidizing Canada, declaring that \u201cthe only way this thing really works is for Canada to become a state.”<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cIt now seems increasingly obvious that Trump’s expansionist aspirations are no fleeting fancy,\u201d CBC\u00a0writes<\/a>. \u201cHe kept quiet for a while, leading some to wonder whether he’d gotten it out of his system.\u201d But \u201cin recent days, the president has been blunt in different encounters with media that he seriously would love to see Canada become a state.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s apparent seriousness about annexation leads to two questions, the answers to which may well be shaped by the election results Monday night:<\/em><\/p>\n

\u2022 What are the prospects for Canada to form new trading relationships with other regions and countries that are facing Trump\u2019s malignant wrath, to diversify our economies and stand together against a common threat?<\/em><\/p>\n

\u2022 How can climate and energy strategy become part of the glue that holds this new alliance together, and what policies and real-world actions will Canada need to join in?<\/em><\/p>\n

The World Pushes Back<\/h2>\n

The astonishing thing over the last few weeks was not that Donald Trump went ahead with his threat to blow up the global trading system by imposing tariffs on about 60 countries, including two economically mischievous islands\u00a0populated only by penguins<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It was that the rest of the world was so fast to push back, ready and determined to move on from an era of U.S. economic dominance. That a promising approach to building a new trading bloc that bypasses the rogue regime in the White House went from online conversation to serious proposition in scarcely a week.<\/p>\n

That if you surveyed the scene from just the right angle, a new, emerging bloc might be able to cover more ground and tackle multiple problems at once by pivoting to low-carbon goods and real decarbonization technologies.<\/p>\n

And that Canada might yet\u00a0place itself at the centre<\/a>\u00a0of the world\u2019s next great, low-carbon trading alliance, as long as our incoming federal government has the insight and inclination to play along.\u00a0(Which is a longabouts way of saying\u2026your vote matters.)<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

In the 100 or so hours after Trump\u2019s self-styled \u201cLiberation Day\u201d announcement earlier this month, we saw a fast flurry of analyses on the\u00a0slapdash, amateur-hour process<\/a>\u00a0behind the decision, the immediate impact on\u00a0jobs<\/a>, a shock reaction from global\u00a0stock markets<\/a>\u00a0that has continued through the month, and the apparent certainty that this spells the\u00a0end of global trade as we\u2019ve known it<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But there are more interesting, even hopeful and positive questions to ask, beginning with:<\/p>\n

If every end is also a beginning, what\u2019s next?<\/p>\n

If the tariffs are really dealing a death blow to the established international trading system, what if this undercuts the fossil fuel industry as badly as Trump\u2019s direct hostility and interference have devastated the U.S. renewable energy sector and climate justice community?<\/p>\n

For Canada, now that we\u2019ve declared that there\u2019s\u00a0no way back<\/a>\u00a0to an era when our economy was over-dependent on our neighbour to the south, what else do we gain by getting closer to countries that are farther along on their climate and decarbonization journey?<\/p>\n

And how can we work with our future trading partners to accelerate the shift?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Sleeping Beside an Elephant<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The roiling, ranting, manufactured crisis that Donald Trump has brought to our doorstep has communities, countries, and whole continents scrambling for solutions. So we might as well admit and embrace the reality staring right at us\u2014Trump has created a moment when the sense of what\u2019s \u201crealistic\u201d gets tossed in the air, when unexpected lines of thought suddenly make a whole lot more sense.<\/p>\n

For Canada, that response begins with a level of unity and shared purpose that we haven\u2019t seen in many decades\u2014prompting former prime minister Jean Chr\u00e9tien to\u00a0slyly declare<\/a>\u00a0that he would have nominated Trump for an Order of Canada if only the honour were available to\u00a0convicted criminals<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It extends into some serious, long-overdue conversations about how to make our economy truly independent. We\u2019ve always known we were sleeping beside an elephant, as Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau\u00a0told<\/a>\u00a0the Washington Press Club in 1969.<\/p>\n

But there\u2019s been little serious talk about dialling up our economic relationships in other parts of the world sufficiently to dial back our dependence on the U.S. Until now.<\/p>\n

It began with a post by Social Capital Partners Chair Jon Shell, suggesting a new trading bloc with the economic clout to survive, thrive, and leave the United States behind.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe know what Donald Trump is afraid of,\u201d he\u00a0wrote<\/a>\u00a0on LinkedIn. \u201cNow let’s organize around it.\u201d<\/p>\n

The EU, UK, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Australia (I’m now calling them “EU + 5”) collectively have 760 million people and control 34% of the global economy and vast quantities of natural resources. We are an obvious threat to the U.S. and to China if we were to organize.<\/p>\n

The best way to beat a bully is for the rest of the group to rise up against him.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The rest of Shell\u2019s scenario is that much more plausible in the year when Canada holds the rotating chair of the Group of 7 forum of industrialized nations, and will be hosting the G7 leaders\u2019 summit in June.<\/p>\n

The most powerful signal to give Trump would be for this group to meet in a very public way, ideally in Canada, so the meeting would play out on American TV in the right time zones. The stats on the economic and resource might of this new group would scroll across the bottom of Fox News.\u00a0[If we can assume that Fox would even carry the story\u2014Ed.]<\/em><\/p>\n

A joint statement at the end pledging to work together as friends and allies to ensure a resilient and prosperous future for our populations would be a powerful message. Quick wins could be action on Ukraine and munitions manufacturing.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

First and last, it needs to be 100% clear\u2014and for Trump, spelled out with a Sharpie in simple, single-syllable words with lots of golf analogies\u2014that no one is taking this lying down.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy strong recommendation to Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the European Union is to join together to create a free trade zone that excludes the United States, imposing at least a 10% tariff on all imports from America,\u201d\u00a0writes<\/a>\u00a0Bill Clinton-era U.S. labour secretary Robert Reich. \u201cDon\u2019t negotiate. Do this now so you\u2019ll be negotiating from a position of power.\u201d<\/p>\n

G7? Meet the \u2018Free 7\u2019 (By Comparison)<\/strong><\/h2>\n

As Reich\u2019s formula suggests, a useful add-on to Shell\u2019s thinking would be to build on Canada\u2019s relationship with its more reliable trading partner in North America by including Mexico in an EU + 6.<\/p>\n

And by declaring an emphasis on clean energy and decarbonization trade, the countries could jump-start their economies after Trump\u2019s tariff attack, boost affordability and local self-reliance across the entire bloc, support\u00a0Ukraine\u2019s reconstruction<\/a>, and\u00a0prevent military conflict<\/a>\u00a0in the first place\u2014and oh, by the way, move closer to meeting their climate targets.<\/p>\n

The focus on climate and carbon would be consistent with the accelerated priorities the European Union has been setting since 2022, when Vladimir Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine turned energy efficiency and renewables into a\u00a0geopolitical security strategy<\/a>\u00a0for countries that were\u00a0too dependent<\/a>\u00a0on Russian gas.<\/p>\n

And this general line of thought has been gaining traction. Within a week, the idea of a wider trading bloc had\u00a0broken out<\/a>\u00a0from social media and Substack newsletters to general media in a Toronto Star post by John Austin, a nonresident senior fellow at the Washington, DC-based Brookings Institution. His formulation brought together the EU, Japan, the UK, Canada, Mexico, South Korea, and Thailand in a group of nations that \u201cwould dwarf the U.S., as well as the economies of China combined with its ally Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n

Given America\u2019s new stance, now is the time for the G7 member nations to disinvite the U.S. from the group, and morph to a new organization: a \u201cFree 7.\u201d It would be a new forum in which the nations that still believe in democracy, free markets, freedom of expression, and free trade would collaborate to strengthen their collective hand and push back against authoritarians\u2014which now includes the U.S.<\/p>\n

The work of the new Free 7 would be the urgent task of building an international coalition that stands up to the authoritarian axis\u2014and successfully contains it. This means standing up to pressure from the U.S.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Take this as a thumbs-up for the basic idea, not necessarily the branding Austin attaches to it. It would take a whole other edition of\u00a0The Weekender<\/em>\u00a0(or more) to unpack what we mean by \u201cFree\u201d and how well or widely it applies to the countries in the group, certainly including Canada.<\/p>\n

But the point of contrast with full-on authoritarians like Trump still makes a lot of sense\u2014to counter the rush to fascism that we\u2019re seeing in the U.S. and,\u00a0if it goes this way<\/a>, to reignite the response to climate change and the energy transition. That general line of thought makes South Korea an interesting addition to the group after an\u00a0unequivocal population pushed back<\/a>\u00a0against an egregious assault on the country\u2019s democracy\u2014unlike their U.S. counterparts, who splintered in response to Trump\u2019s 2020 election loss and the deadly insurrection attempt that followed.<\/p>\n

Carbon is the New Tariff<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In February,\u00a0The Weekender\u00a0<\/em>reported<\/a>\u00a0that the emerging, global demand for low-emissions trade isn\u2019t just a North American phenomenon\u2014nor even a trend that North America is leading. And that carbon controls could soon become the new tariff.<\/p>\n

The European Union\u00a0adopted<\/a>\u00a0the world\u2019s first carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) in 2023, and its implementation is set to\u00a0begin this year<\/a>. That bit of progress landed in the middle of the Liberal leadership campaign earlier this year when then-candidate Mark Carney proposed to replace the hated consumer carbon tax by introducing a CBAM regime\u00a0with other like-minded countries.<\/em><\/p>\n

That thinking leads toward a plausible and really promising future where climate impact is a key criterion guiding trading relationships, as long as the system is\u00a0rigorous enough<\/a>\u00a0to deliver real-world results. If a country is seriously and measurably reducing emissions, it qualifies. If it isn\u2019t, it gets politely but firmly left behind.<\/p>\n

As far back as January, Canada\u2019s future trading partners were already making moves in the right direction. In the first week after Trump\u2019s inauguration, a small flurry of analysis\u00a0indicated<\/a>\u00a0that the rest of the world was moving on\u2014not least because countries have already seen eight years of punitive, provocative U.S. tariffs under the Joe Biden presidency as well as Trump 1.0, and they\u2019re quite rightly fed up.<\/p>\n

The trend was most definitely paralleled by an emerging, global shift in energy priorities. \u201cMost major economies are investing in ever-cheaper solar and wind power,\u201d the New York Times wrote. \u201cEven as coal, oil, and gas still power the global economy, and more fossil fuels are burned year after year, the movement globally is toward heavy investment in solar, wind, and batteries, the prices of which have fallen sharply in recent years.\u201d<\/p>\n

Time to Stand for What Matters<\/strong><\/h2>\n

But in international trade relations, as in the fight against climate change, standing against what we can\u2019t and won\u2019t accept is just half the battle. The next successful trading bloc will only fulfill John Austin\u2019s vision of a \u201cFree 7\u201d if we\u2019re very clear and deliberate about the kind of economic activity we want.<\/p>\n

In a Toronto Star op ed, Savanna McGregor, Grand Chief of the Algonquin Anishinabeg Nation Tribal Council,\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre\u2019s\u00a0\u201cCanada First\u201d National Energy Corridor<\/a>\u00a0wouldn\u2019t meet that standard.<\/p>\n

Reading Mr. Poilievre\u2019s announcement, I am left wondering why it does not mention Indigenous people even passingly, other than to expect fancifully that we give \u201capproval \u2026 before any money is spent.\u201d Surely he knows Canada\u2019s constitution requires Indigenous consultation, accommodation, and ultimately consent to build major infrastructure inside his National Energy Corridor? How can there be consultation (to say nothing of accommodation and consent) if the corridor is \u201cpre-approved\u201d before anyone has the blueprints for what infrastructure will be built and where?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

McGregor asks how city dwellers would respond to word of a \u201cpre-approved\u201d major development in their own back yard, with no indication of whether it\u2019s a school, a shopping mall, or a radioactive waste dump.<\/p>\n

It sounds ridiculous and contemptuous, yet this is exactly how Mr. Poilievre and many others hold Indigenous communities today (there is a radioactive waste dump on Algonquin land right now). Obviously, pushing a development decision without identifying the development would never fly in a city where the residents have no constitutional right to be consulted\u2014so it definitely will not fly for Indigenous people having that right.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u201cIronically, the pre-approved corridor Mr. Poilievre wants to speed development up would nearly paralyze it,\u201d McGregor wrote, citing court cases that would slow down a campaign promise that she describes as a \u201cwar with Indigenous nations\u201d.<\/p>\n

Then there\u2019s the question of who gains if those projects are fast-tracked. In a separate post for the Star, Toronto Metropolitan University associate professor Shari Pasternak and Emily Lowan, fossil fuel supply lead at Climate Action Network Canada (of which Energy Mix Productions is a member),\u00a0connected dots<\/a>\u00a0to some of the main movers and shakers in Trump\u2019s inner circle. Which means that projects like the\u00a0Prince Rupert Gas Transmission<\/a>\u00a0(PRGT)\u00a0pipeline<\/a>\u00a0and the\u00a0Ksi Lisims LNG<\/a>\u00a0export terminal \u201care now\u00a0making Canada vulnerable<\/a>\u00a0to Trump\u2019s predatory goal of North American energy dominance.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pasternak and Lowan wrote:<\/p>\n

The solution is not to copy Trump\u2019s \u201cdrill, baby, drill\u201d approach with a thin gloss of maple syrup over top; it is respect for Indigenous jurisdiction and a just transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. Canadian pride should come from ethical investment and reconciliation\u2014not backstopping U.S. corporations.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

We\u2019ve all heard the too-easy, too-glib line that a crisis is a terrible thing to waste. And once, just once, I wish the pundits and prognosticators who keep talking that way would turn their attention to the climate crisis and the fossil fuel industries that drive it. Or the nature and biodiversity crisis. Or the food security crisis. Or the multiple, wrenching human rights crises going on around the world as we virtually speak. No need to be fussy.<\/p>\n

But here\u2019s the thing so many of us have been hoping for\u2014since the U.S. election result in November, and since around 8:10 PM Eastern last June 27, as we watched then-U.S. president Joe Biden implode onstage in his debate against Trump. Faced with the worst we\u2019ve ever seen from Trump, the\u00a0#ElbowsUp<\/a>\u00a0mantra is extending far beyond Canada, into a global coalition so wide that it might be able to withstand this moment, recover, thrive\u2014and thrive green.<\/p>\n

There are no guarantees, and it\u2019ll take a while to see how things land. But the first step in building the solution we need is to envision it. And over the last few weeks, that\u2019s been happening.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix on April 26, 2025. By Mitchell Beer This Weekender\u00a0mostly combines material we published in late February and early April, but the context is a bit more urgent\u2026again. [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":66630,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[13,2144,408,14,529,1039,598],"class_list":{"0":"post-66629","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-opinion","8":"tag-canada","9":"tag-canadian-election","10":"tag-canadian-government","11":"tag-featured","12":"tag-policy","13":"tag-tariffs","14":"tag-us"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrump - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Donald Trump reinserted himself into the Canadian election,\u00a0telling\u00a0TIME Magazine he\u2019s \u201creally not trolling\u201d.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/opinion\/opinion-trump-is-serious-about-annexing-canada-how-will-climate-and-energy-policy-bring-us-the-allies-we-need\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Donald Trump reinserted himself into the Canadian election,\u00a0telling\u00a0TIME Magazine he\u2019s \u201creally not trolling\u201d.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/opinion\/opinion-trump-is-serious-about-annexing-canada-how-will-climate-and-energy-policy-bring-us-the-allies-we-need\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/energimedia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-28T17:49:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Trump-Tom-Brenner-AP.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"700\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"394\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Energi Staff\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@EnergiMedia\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@EnergiMedia\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Energi Staff\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"10 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/opinion\\\/opinion-trump-is-serious-about-annexing-canada-how-will-climate-and-energy-policy-bring-us-the-allies-we-need\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/opinion\\\/opinion-trump-is-serious-about-annexing-canada-how-will-climate-and-energy-policy-bring-us-the-allies-we-need\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Energi Staff\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/07051d0cfb14da284c97fb8ff214caf7\"},\"headline\":\"Opinion: Trump is serious about annexing Canada. 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