{"id":66535,"date":"2025-04-14T10:55:49","date_gmt":"2025-04-14T17:55:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=66535"},"modified":"2025-04-14T10:55:55","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T17:55:55","slug":"opinion-u-s-tariffs-are-about-to-trigger-the-greatest-trade-diversion-the-world-has-ever-seen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/opinion\/opinion-u-s-tariffs-are-about-to-trigger-the-greatest-trade-diversion-the-world-has-ever-seen\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: U.S. tariffs are about to trigger the greatest trade diversion the world has ever seen"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Conversation<\/a> on April 14, 2025<\/em><\/p>\n

By Wolfgang Alschner<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

United States President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs have shaken the global trading system. Canadians have rightly been preoccupied by the tariff\u2019s devastating\u00a0impact on U.S.-Canada relations<\/a>, but the wider ripple effects could prove just as damaging.<\/p>\n

The tariffs have redirected billions of dollars in exports originally bound for the U.S., which are now poised to flood global markets \u2014 including Canada\u2019s. This will trigger a historic trade diversion that will put even the most free trade-minded nations to the test.<\/p>\n

Around\u00a015 per cent of global imports went to the U.S.<\/a>\u00a0in 2024. The country has long been the world\u2019s biggest consumer market, in part, due to its low average tariffs of just\u00a03.3 per cent<\/a>.<\/p>\n

These days are now over. On April 2, the U.S. increased its average tariff rate seven-fold to a\u00a0staggering 22 per cent<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 by far the highest among countries with a major economy.<\/p>\n

\n

Read more:\u00a0Canada was mostly spared from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, but it must not grow complacent<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\n

Even though the U.S.\u2019s \u201creciprocal\u201d tariffs<\/a>\u00a0have since been suspended for all countries except China and Trump\u00a0has now exempted smartphones, computers and microchips<\/a>, a 10 per cent baseline rate and several sectoral duties remain in place.<\/p>\n

Together, they form a tariff wall around the U.S. unlike anything seen in generations.<\/p>\n

The Great Trade Diversion<\/h2>\n

Much of the trade disruption stems from China. In 2024, China exported\u00a0US$438.9 billion<\/a>\u00a0worth of goods to the U.S. Millions of parcels, sent via e-commerce platforms like Shein, entered the U.S. duty-free because they fell\u00a0below the US$800 \u201cde minimis\u201d threshold<\/a>.<\/p>\n

On April 2, Trump\u00a0eliminated this exemption for low-value Chinese exports<\/a>\u00a0and imposed a reciprocal tariff on all Chinese imports of 34 per cent.<\/p>\n

This rate was\u00a0increased further<\/a>\u00a0after China vowed to retaliate on April 4, and is now stacked on top of a 20 per cent fentanyl-related tariff. The result is an effective tariff rate exceeding 100 per cent, making it prohibitively costly for China to export to the U.S.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"A
A worker carries a box of party supplies imported from China in the Toy District of Los Angeles on April 9, 2025.\u00a0(AP Photo\/Jae C. Hong)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Last time U.S.-China trade tensions escalated, China\u00a0rerouted many of its exports through Southeast Asia<\/a>. This time, however, Southeast Asian countries were hit hard, too.<\/p>\n

Vietnam, a major destination of Chinese export-oriented foreign investment, exported\u00a0US$137 billion in goods<\/a>\u00a0to the U.S. in 2024. While the 46 per cent reciprocal tariff against Vietnam\u00a0has since been suspended<\/a>, the U.S. is unlikely to tolerate such circumvention this time around.<\/p>\n

The U.S. has also imposed\u00a0a 25 per cent tariff on all imported automobiles<\/a>. South Korea, Japan and Germany all\u00a0export cars to the U.S. market<\/a>. While some of these exports may continue as tariff costs are absorbed or passed on to customers, others will divert their vehicles to alternative markets.<\/p>\n

All told, billions of dollars in trade are being rerouted, with a tidal wave of diverted goods now headed for markets around the world.<\/p>\n

A repeat of the Great Depression<\/h2>\n

The world has been here before. In the 1930s, the U.S. enacted\u00a0the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act<\/a>, which raised tariffs on thousands of imported goods in an effort to shield American industries during the Great Depression. The result was a rapid contraction of global trade.<\/p>\n

What ultimately tipped the world over the edge wasn\u2019t direct retaliation against the U.S. Instead, global trade collapsed as U.S. trading partners turned on each other. Faced with a flood of diverted goods, they rushed to protect their own manufacturing by\u00a0enacting trade restrictions<\/a>\u00a0of their own.<\/p>\n

Similarly, today, we face a similar risk. The greater concern is not Trump\u2019s tariffs themselves or even the retaliation they provoke, but rather the resulting trade diversion and wave of protectionism it can trigger.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"A
As countries erected successive tariffs and other trade barriers, world trade declined month after month between 1929 and 1933, worsening the Great Depression.\u00a0(Wolfgang Alschner, based on data from The World in Depression 1929-1939 by Charles P. Kindleberger)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Old fears, new pressures<\/h2>\n

In some respects, the world may be in a more precarious position today than it was in the early 1930s.<\/p>\n

For close to a decade, western policymakers, including G7 members, have sounded alarm bells over \u201cChinese overcapacity<\/a>.\u201d China consumes\u00a0too little at home and exports too much abroad<\/a>, often using unfair non-market practices such as covert subsidization to undercut local prices.<\/p>\n

Fears of deindustrialization<\/a>\u00a0have already led some governments to put new trade barriers in place. Canada, for example, placed a\u00a0100 per cent tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles to protect its own nascent industry<\/a>\u00a0in 2024. A flood of diverted Chinese imports will only heighten these pre-existing concerns.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"An
A Chinese electric vehicle charges at an electric vehicle charging station in Beijing in June 2024.\u00a0(AP Photo\/Andy Wong)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

At the same time, global trade rules meant to safeguard against protectionism have become brittle. The U.S.\u00a0has blocked the appointment of judges to the World Trade Organization\u2019s highest court<\/a>, which is tasked with enforcing trade rules.<\/p>\n

The resulting impunity has emboldened countries beyond the U.S. to openly flout WTO rules. Indonesia, for example, continues to maintain a\u00a0WTO-inconsistent export ban on nickel<\/a>. Canada\u2019s electric vehicle tariff will likely be\u00a0judged illegal under trade rules<\/a>\u00a0as well.<\/p>\n

Global trade system at a crossroads<\/h2>\n

The Great Trade Diversion is set to put an already strained system to the test. There is still time for countries to reaffirm their commitment to international trade rules. Those same rules also allow countries to\u00a0temporarily restrict trade<\/a>\u00a0when faced with a flood of imports.<\/p>\n

The Canadian government can proactively identify sectors at risk of disruption and call on the Canada Border Services Agency to self-initiate investigations into vulnerable sectors to swiftly clear the procedural hurdles for imposing temporary import restrictions.<\/p>\n

If countries stick to these rules, the global trading system can weather the storm. Just as possible, though, is a slide toward protectionism. Faced with a deluge of goods coming from China, the temptation to erect illegal trade barriers like the U.S. already has will be high.<\/p>\n

The global economy stands at a crossroads: one path leads to a reassertion of international co-operation and global rules; the other to a cascade of protectionist measures and a weakening of the very system that has enabled decades of economic growth and stability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Conversation on April 14, 2025 By Wolfgang Alschner United States President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs have shaken the global trading system. Canadians have rightly been preoccupied by the tariff\u2019s devastating\u00a0impact [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":66538,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[322,91,14,597,584,598],"class_list":{"0":"post-66535","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-opinion","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-china","10":"tag-featured","11":"tag-trade","12":"tag-trump","13":"tag-us"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\ntariffs - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act raised tariffs on thousands of imported goods in an effort to shield US industries during the Great Depression.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/opinion\/opinion-u-s-tariffs-are-about-to-trigger-the-greatest-trade-diversion-the-world-has-ever-seen\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"tariffs - 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