{"id":66320,"date":"2025-03-17T10:07:49","date_gmt":"2025-03-17T17:07:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=66320"},"modified":"2025-03-17T10:07:49","modified_gmt":"2025-03-17T17:07:49","slug":"opinion-a-least-cost-energy-strategy-would-bring-carneys-climate-policy-home","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/opinion\/opinion-a-least-cost-energy-strategy-would-bring-carneys-climate-policy-home\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: A least-cost energy strategy would bring Carney\u2019s climate policy home"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix<\/a> on March 17, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Mitchell Beer<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Prime Minister Mark Carney and his new cabinet took office Friday with some tough, momentous questions on their agenda, most of them pointing back to the rogue regime waging economic war on Canada from the White House.<\/p>\n

But there\u2019s one fairly easy calculation they or any future cabinet can make that will set them on track to addressing that challenge. Not least by tackling the domestic vulnerabilities that were driving us apart until Donald Trump\u2019s latest round of rolling outrages\u00a0pulled us back together<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s the cheapest, quickest way to deliver the reliable, affordable energy Canadians need, while boosting domestic manufacturing, driving down climate pollution, and restoring public confidence that our governments can actually deliver on their promises?<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

If our political leaders answered that question seriously and followed the evidence where it leads, it would bring them directly to the low-carbon energy path we laid out in\u00a0last week\u2019s\u00a0<\/a>Weekender<\/a><\/em>:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Drastically increasing the\u00a0energy efficiency of everything<\/a>;<\/p>\n

\u2022 Replacing fuels with electricity across a large swath of the economy while decarbonizing the electricity system;<\/p>\n

\u2022 Seizing the urgent opportunity to rapidly\u00a0drive down methane emissions<\/a>, whether or not fossil companies are serious about getting with the program;<\/p>\n

\u2022 Pairing the rise of renewables and energy efficiency with a\u00a0managed phaseout of oil, gas, and coal<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A least-cost energy strategy that factored in the fully-loaded cost of climate change would give us a lens for assessing every new pitch for Canada\u2019s energy future\u2014whether it\u2019s a deep energy retrofit program, a local battery storage system, a solar or wind farm, a\u00a0$100-billion nuclear megaproject<\/a>, or the\u00a0ridiculous demands<\/a>\u00a0for new pipelines in all directions, hatched by the fossil fuel industry and voiced by the former industry lobbyist they\u2019ve\u00a0since installed<\/a>\u00a0as Alberta\u2019s premier.<\/p>\n

Pretty much without exception, it brings us back to low-carbon options that are practical, affordable, ready to scale up, and won\u2019t either fry the planet when used as directed or saddle us with eons\u2019 worth of dangerous nuclear waste.<\/p>\n

For bonus points, it connects us to a burgeoning global clean energy economy\u2014at just the moment when we\u2019re looking to diversity our exports beyond one risky, unreliable trading partner.<\/p>\n

And just as important, it takes us past the disconnect between statement and action\u2014between the \u201cwhat\u201d and the \u201chow\u201d of government policy on climate, affordability, and everything else that matters. That gap has cut across all the major political parties for the last decade and quite rightly sapped public confidence that anything much will ever get done.<\/p>\n

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WWCD? (What Would Cabinet Do?)<\/strong><\/h2>\n

All of which leads to the next important question that we can hope to see the political parties address on the campaign trail over the next few weeks:<\/p>\n

(What would Cabinet do?)<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

With the\u00a0horse race polls tightening<\/a>\u00a0ahead of an election that may be called at any moment, it\u2019s a question that applies to either of the parties with a chance of forming the next government. As Climate Action Network Canada\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0in its response to\u00a0Friday\u2019s announcement<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Prime Minister Carney\u2019s new cabinet may be short-lived, but the climate crisis\u2014with its economic impacts larger than those of the tariffs\u2014requires all hands on deck. As Canadians face the effects of climate change and their impacts on affordability, climate action must be a priority for all departments, all parties, and all levels of government.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Here are some early guesses on how this particular cabinet might connect climate and energy back to the trade, sovereignty, and affordability issues that are sure to preoccupy Ottawa for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0Mark Carney, Prime Minister:<\/strong>\u00a0You probably know the pedigree by now: Central banker x2, widely credited with sparing Canada from the worst effects of the 2008 economic crash and helping the UK navigate through Brexit. A \u201cboring guy<\/a>\u201d with a \u201cvolcanic temper<\/a>\u201d from whom Trump \u201cshould not expect too much flattery\u201d. Voice of the September, 2015\u00a0\u201ctragedy of the horizon\u201d speech<\/a>\u00a0that introduced climate change to bankers as a threat to international financial stability, former United Nations special envoy for climate finance,\u00a0instigator<\/a>\u00a0of an ambitious though\u00a0ultimately cosmetic effort<\/a>\u00a0to\u00a0pull the global banking sector<\/a>\u00a0into the climate fight, chair of a\u00a0green energy investment powerhouse<\/a>\u00a0that is\u00a0still taking heat<\/a>\u00a0for its holdings in fossil fuels. Carney\u2019s pronouncements so far have focused largely on strengthening the economy, getting infrastructure built, and moving bigger and faster than we ever thought possible. (@SethKlein, we\u2019re taking side bets on\u00a0where he may have discovered that idea<\/a>.) It remains to be seen what kind of infrastructure he has in mind, but it\u2019ll be hard for him to get behind new fossil fuel or nuclear megaprojects without abandoning the aura of economic realism behind the near-heroic reputation he\u2019s built to date.<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0Fran\u00e7ois-Philippe Champagne, Finance Minister:<\/strong>\u00a0Dubbed \u201cCanada\u2019s closer<\/a>\u201d by Politico in 2023 during his term as industry and innovation minister, Champagne earned nicknames like \u201cEnergizer Bunny\u201d and a reputation for never letting go when he took on the task of building up Canada\u2019s electric vehicle and battery supply chains. In his analysis of the swearing in, Globe and Mail columnist Adam Radwanski\u00a0called<\/a>\u00a0Champagne\u2019s appointment \u201cthe most telling of Mr. Carney\u2019s attempts to speed up the way things work in Ottawa\u2014and potentially the most consequential, if he gets a chance to actually govern after the election he is about to call.\u201d<\/p>\n

Champagne \u201cis not necessarily the person to put in that job for deep soul-searching about the future of the Canadian economy, amid a trade war with the United States and a crumbling international order,\u201d Radwanski wrote. Instead, the new finance minister brings \u201can unusually energetic and transactional management style that, unlike many of the colleagues who served alongside him in [former prime minister Justin] Trudeau\u2019s cabinet, is less about plan-making than about follow-through.\u201d<\/p>\n

If what Radwanski calls Champagne\u2019s \u201cdog-with-a-bone mentality\u201d can clear the widely-reputed cobwebs and obstacles in the federal finance department, it may be a welcome relief from a largely performative government that hired a high-priced UK consultant to advise it on \u201cDeliverology<\/a>\u201d, but in the end\u00a0couldn\u2019t even deliver<\/a>\u00a0on that.<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0M\u00e9lanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs:<\/strong>\u00a0Joly has been in the eye of the storm responding to Donald Trump\u2019s economic warfare, delivering a\u00a0brilliantly tough, substantive defence<\/a>\u00a0of Canadian sovereignty and values that had veteran CNN anchor Christiane Amanpour declaring that \u201cmy jaw is dropped\u201d. Climate change doesn\u2019t appear to have been a central priority for Joly in her 3\u00bd years as foreign minister. But some of her recent statements have\u00a0flagged<\/a>\u00a0the impacts of climate change in a rapidly-warming Arctic and\u00a0pointed<\/a>\u00a0to the year-by-year increase in forest fires as an issue for Canada to confront alongside other countries.<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0Dominic LeBlanc, Minister of International Trade and Intergovernmental Affairs:<\/strong>\u00a0Like Joly, LeBlanc will spend most of his time on the front lines of the fight against Trump\u2019s senseless trade war. A second-generation cabinet minister from New Brunswick, he has\u00a0close ties<\/a>\u00a0to the Irving oil and natural resources dynasty. But local observers see LeBlanc as a team player and deal-maker who will follow whichever political winds bring economic gains to his home province. These days, that agenda may include New Brunswick\u2019s biggest wind farm, and LeBlanc was also a major proponent of the ill-fated\u00a0Atlantic Loop<\/a>\u00a0clean electricity transmission project.<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Transport and Internal Trade:<\/strong>\u00a0As finance minister and deputy prime minister under Trudeau, Freeland is widely recognized as a smart, experienced, committed political operator. She was also generally understood to be a leading obstacle to pushing ambitious climate dossiers through cabinet. As internal trade minister, she\u2019ll presumably have a lot to say about interprovincial clean electricity deals like the\u00a0longstanding<\/a>,\u00a0common sense<\/a>\u00a0plan to supply hydroelectric power from Quebec to Ontario.<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources:<\/strong>\u00a0A cleantech executive before he entered politics, and a solid voice for renewable energy in the Trudeau cabinet, Wilkinson has most recently\u00a0raised<\/a>\u00a0some common sense concerns about the latest round of fossil-generated hype for new pipelines.<\/p>\n

\u201cEverybody\u2019s sort of running around saying, \u2018Oh my God, we need a new pipeline, we need a new pipeline,\u2019\u201d he told the Globe and Mail, in an interview that would have been on the public record before Carney finalized his re-appointment to the energy portfolio. \u201cThe question is, \u2018Well, why do we need a new pipeline?\u2019 And I think it\u2019s important to have the conversation, but let\u2019s start with facts.\u201d<\/p>\n

Beginning, presumably, with whether anyone would actually want the job of constructing it. \u201cIf there’s an economic case, you would assume there’s a proponent, and the proponent will build it,\u201d Wilkinson said around the same time, in an interview with CBC. But with the companies that originally pitched the Energy East and Northern Gateway megaprojects no longer in the oil pipeline business, and no avid advocate on the horizon, \u201cpeople are jumping to a solution before they’ve actually talked through the challenges,\u201d he added. \u201cOne is, is there an economic case for such a pipeline? And the second is, is there a national security rationale?\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0Steven Guilbeault, Minister of Canadian Culture and Identity and Parks Canada:\u00a0<\/strong>Guilbeault needs no introduction to\u00a0Weekender\u00a0<\/em>readers as the former environment minister who received a\u00a039-point to-do list<\/a>\u00a0in his mandate letter from Trudeau in 2021. After years of championing a succession of climate regulations against relentless attacks from the fossil industry and its supporters, Guilbeault\u2019s new portfolio allows him to focus more on nature and biodiversity, as he\u2019s been doing in many of his recent announcements.<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0Terry Duguid, Minister of Environment and Climate Change:<\/strong>\u00a0Duguid served as chair of the Manitoba Clean Environment Commission before he ran for office, and is credited as the guiding hand behind the creation of the\u00a0Canada Water Agency<\/a>. He\u2019s seen as a strong pick for the environment and climate portfolio, and might be particularly amenable to the argument that climate change is largely about water in all the wrong places.<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0Nate Erskine-Smith, Minister of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities:<\/strong>\u00a0Erskine-Smith was widely seen as the leading voice for climate and energy solutions in the 2023 Ontario Liberal leadership campaign, placing second to then-Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie. As\u00a0The Energy Mix<\/em>\u00a0reported exclusively<\/a>\u00a0last month, Erskine-Smith told the Sustainable Communities Conference in Fredericton that \u201celections matter\u201d, warning municipal officials that a quarter-century of progress on local climate and sustainability initiatives could be at risk in this year\u2019s vote.<\/p>\n

The Masks Are Off<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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In a welcome letter coordinated by Ecojustice, 57 Canadian organizations and individuals urged<\/a>\u00a0the new PM to heed his own\u00a0testimony<\/a>\u00a0on Sen. Rosa Galvez\u2019 proposed\u00a0Climate-Aligned Finance Act<\/a>. In May 2024, Carney advised parliamentarians to turn away from the \u201cnegative impact of Canada\u2019s slow progress in building a sustainable financial system on investment, job creation, and competitiveness of our economy\u201d and create a \u201cvirtuous circle of large-scale investment, faster decarbonization, more jobs, and faster growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Less than a year later, two powerful forces\u2014both of them, sad to say, unleashed by Trump\u2014make those words even more important than they were then.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Many international leaders know the energy transition\u00a0won\u2019t stop for Trump<\/a>. The European Union\u2019s\u00a0Clean Industrial Deal<\/a>\u00a0is meant to sustain the continent\u2019s commitment to the energy transition and at least somewhat keep pace with\u00a0China\u2019s massive lead<\/a>\u00a0in clean technology development. When Carney talks about adopting a carbon border adjustment mechanism\u2014essentially a tariff on high-carbon products\u2014alongside like-minded countries, bear in mind that the EU is where the\u00a0world\u2019s first CBAM<\/a>\u00a0was introduced.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Among the countries and businesses that were only performatively committed to the energy transition, the masks are off. Over the last week, the Financial Times has reported oil and gas CEO and COP28 President Sultan al Jaber\u2019s\u00a0statement<\/a>\u00a0that \u201cit\u2019s time to make energy great again\u201d, while Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser enthused that \u201cwe can all feel the winds of history in our industry\u2019s sails again.\u201d That prompted John Kerry, now retired and unleashed from his position as the Biden administration\u2019s climate envoy, to\u00a0declare<\/a>\u00a0that Aramco is on the \u201cwrong side\u201d of that history.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Meanwhile, our friends at Climate & Capital Media\u00a0report<\/a>\u00a0that BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, author of the annual \u201cLarry\u2019s Letters\u201d that sang the praises of\u00a0corporate social responsibility<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0climate disclosure<\/a>, is now happily embracing \u201cenergy addition\u201d has he builds up his firm\u2019s investments in natural gas, coal, and liquefied natural gas exports.<\/p>\n

In a cascading, global climate emergency, the good news here is obviously more welcome than the bad. But at very least, it\u2019s easier to sort out where things stand, with the talk getting more real and more countries and regions that are not the United States moving from declarations to implementation. That may set the stage for a prime minister like Mark Carney to help bring climate and green industries back toward the centre of the international conversation, very specifically as a way of advancing Canadian sovereignty and diversifying our trading relationships.<\/p>\n

That will depend, of course, on the results of the next federal election. But if a Carney cabinet gets a chance to set any policy at all, it\u2019ll be hard to go wrong with a least-cost energy strategy at the centre of its thinking.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Energy Mix on March 17, 2025. 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