{"id":65431,"date":"2024-11-27T11:20:38","date_gmt":"2024-11-27T19:20:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=65431"},"modified":"2024-11-27T11:20:38","modified_gmt":"2024-11-27T19:20:38","slug":"nov-2024-propane-inventories-fall-short-of-five-year-average-la-nina-forecast-suggests-milder-winter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/nov-2024-propane-inventories-fall-short-of-five-year-average-la-nina-forecast-suggests-milder-winter\/","title":{"rendered":"Nov. 2024 propane inventories fall short of five-year average, La Ni\u00f1a forecast suggests milder winter"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by the Canada Energy Regulator<\/a> on Nov. 27, 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n

As of 1 November 2024, Canadian underground propane inventories were 1,587 thousand cubic metres (10\u00b3m\u00b3) (9.98 million barrels [MMb]), which is 15 per cent below the five-year (2019-2023) average of 1,870 thousand cubic metres (10\u00b3m\u00b3) (11.76 million barrels [MMb]) and 13 per cent lower than the 1,820 10\u00b3m\u00b3 (11.45 MMb) recorded for November 2023. Regionally, underground propane storage in Western Canada was at 1,090 10\u00b3m\u00b3 (6.85 MMb), with Ontario storing 497 10\u00b3m\u00b3 (3.13 MMb) as of 1 November 2024. Western Canada\u2019s inventories were just 2 per cent below the five-year average of 1,109 10\u00b3m\u00b3 (6.98 MMb), while Ontario\u2019s inventories were significantly lower, at 35 per cent below the five-year average of 760 10\u00b3m\u00b3 (4.78 MMb).<\/p>\n

Propane is a crucial energy resource for Canadians. It is important in the agricultural and petrochemical sectors and serves as a heating fuel during winter. In North America, propane production is relatively steady from month to month, while demand peaks during the coldest months of the year. Propane inventories are essential to meet this peak winter demand. In Canada, the quantity of propane stored in underground\u00a0salt caverns<\/dfn>\u2014located in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Windsor\/Sarnia, Ontario\u2014typically reaches its highest point in October\/November before declining as monthly withdrawals from storage exceed injections into storage.(<\/span>1)<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

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Source: CER \u2013 Monthly Underground LPG Inventories
Description: This interactive seasonal line and area chart displays the beginning-of-month underground propane inventories in various regions: Western Canada, Ontario, and Canada as a whole. By using the ‘Region’ filter located in the top center you can view the inventory trends for the year 2023, as well as for 2024 (from January to November), the five-year range (2019-2023), and the corresponding five-year average. Additionally, the ‘Unit’ filter, available in the top right corner, allows you to switch between metric (10\u00b3m\u00b3) and imperial (MMb) units for data visualization.
In Canada, inventories reached a minimum of 718 10\u00b3m\u00b3 (4.52 MMb) in April 2024 and then rose to 1,587 10\u00b3m\u00b3 (9.98 MMb) by November 2024. The five-year average for November stands at 1,870 10\u00b3m\u00b3 (11.76 MMb).
In Western Canada, inventories reached a minimum of 547 10\u00b3m\u00b3 (3.44 MMb) in April 2024, and by November 2024, levels increased to 1,090 10\u00b3m\u00b3 (6.85 MMb). The five-year average for November is 1,109 10\u00b3m\u00b3 (6.98 MMb).
In Ontario, inventories reached a low of 171 10\u00b3m\u00b3 (1.08 MMb) in April 2024 and have subsequently increased to 497 10\u00b3m\u00b3 (3.13 MMb) in November 2024. The five-year average for November is 760 10\u00b3m\u00b3 (4.78 MMb). To see an animated version of this graph, click here<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Propane demand is influenced by seasonal factors. Extreme cold weather and increased agricultural demand can lead to rapid depletion of propane inventories, causing higher prices during the heating season. Conversely, warmer weather during the heating season and favourable harvest conditions can help maintain ample propane inventories, lowering prices throughout the winter, and leaving a potential surplus into the summer. Recent winter temperature outlooks from Environment and Climate Change Canada(2<\/span>)<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(<\/span>3)<\/a><\/sup> project milder winter weather, influenced by La Ni\u00f1a,(4)<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0which might ease pressure on propane demand and inventory withdrawals this year.<\/p>\n

Canadian propane production from gas plants has been increasing in recent years, underpinned by growing natural gas production in Alberta and British Columbia. In June\u00a02024, propane production(<\/span>5)<\/a><\/sup> was 51.3 10\u00b3m\u00b3\/d (323 thousand barrels per day [Mbd]), almost 19 per cent above June last year. Propane exports have also been growing, averaging 36.2 10\u00b3m\u00b3\/d (227 Mb\/d) in the first six months of 2024, a 10 per cent increase over the same period last year(<\/span>6)<\/a><\/sup>. In addition, ample U.S. propane supply stemming from growing U.S. natural gas production has put U.S. propane inventories, and particularly those in the U.S. Midwest, close to the five-year maximum.<\/p>\n

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