{"id":65393,"date":"2024-11-25T11:02:39","date_gmt":"2024-11-25T19:02:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=65393"},"modified":"2024-11-25T11:02:39","modified_gmt":"2024-11-25T19:02:39","slug":"global-natural-gas-market-may-experience-a-tighter-supply-demand-balance-this-winter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/global-natural-gas-market-may-experience-a-tighter-supply-demand-balance-this-winter\/","title":{"rendered":"Global natural gas market may experience a tighter supply-demand balance this winter"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>This article was published by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=63804\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">US Energy Information Administration<\/a> on Nov. 25, 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>By Victoria Zaretskaya<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>The last two winters in the Northern Hemisphere were exceptionally mild, keeping global natural gas markets well supplied and balanced at relatively low prices. Prices going into this winter are only slightly higher than last year at the same time based on current forward natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices in Europe and Asia. If weather remains mild this winter as in the past two winters, we expect a relatively stable global supply-demand balance with prices similar to the previous two winters. But if Europe and Asia experience colder temperatures this winter than in the past two years or other operational and market risks materialize, global supply-demand balances could tighten, leading to elevated natural gas prices and potential price spikes.<\/p>\n<p data-type=\"indepth\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/images\/2024.11.25\/main.svg\" alt=\"monthly spot and forward natural gas and LNG prices\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"source\"><strong>Data source:\u00a0<\/strong>Bloomberg Finance, L.P.<br \/>\n<strong>Note:\u00a0<\/strong>Price curves as of November 21, 2024. Dotted lines represent forward prices. LNG=liquefied natural gas; Asian LNG=the JKM price benchmark (representing spot and forward LNG prices in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China); European natural gas=benchmark prices at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF)<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Several issues could affect global natural gas balances this winter:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>LNG supply growth.<\/strong>\u00a0We expect limited LNG capacity additions to come online this winter, mostly in the United States.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Shifts in pipeline flows.<\/strong>\u00a0Less natural gas could be supplied by pipeline to Europe if the Russia-Ukraine natural gas transit\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/ukraines-shmyhal-discusses-energy-security-with-slovakias-fico-2024-10-07\/\">contract set to expire<\/a>\u00a0at the end of 2024 is not renewed.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Operational issues.\u00a0<\/strong>There could be delays in the start-up of new projects, issues with availability of natural gas feedstock for exports, unplanned outages at LNG export facilities, and geopolitical events that could alter LNG trade flows, potentially reducing available supply.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Below normal temperatures.<\/strong>\u00a0A cold winter with sustained, lower-than-normal temperatures in one or more regions in the Northern Hemisphere could occur as\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwmo.int%2Fmedia%2Fupdate%2Fglobal-seasonal-climate-update-november-december-january-2024-25&amp;data=05%7C02%7CVictoria.Zaretskaya%40eia.gov%7Ca3acb0ed3c3148fd129808dcff3a65ff%7C545f0b0be44040549c17d250cf3556b2%7C0%7C0%7C638665873485371246%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=NhAdJ9LrWZfjrseeFlimW4%2BLdRyxkHN3c3VzrhAFoAY%3D&amp;reserved=0\">El Ni\u00f1o changes to La Ni\u00f1a<\/a>\u00a0this year. This change in climate patterns may increase natural gas demand, creating competition for spot LNG supplies between Europe and Asia. Colder weather in the United States could reduce storage inventories and increase U.S. domestic Henry Hub prices, affecting LNG export prices from the United States. Other LNG import markets, including Brazil and Egypt, could also increase LNG demand, intensifying competition for spot LNG among regions, further tightening balances.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Power generation.<\/strong>\u00a0Issues related to electricity supply could affect demand for LNG as a fuel source for power generation, such as nuclear availability and restarts in Europe and Asia, renewable energy output, and fuel availability and costs to power stations, which affect\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=7590\">dispatch economics<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>In 2024, LNG front-month futures prices continued to decline and remained consistently lower than in 2022 and 2023.<\/strong> This year, global natural gas prices at key benchmarks in East Asia (JKM) and in Europe at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) decreased by more than 50 per cent compared with 2022 and by more than 20 per cent compared with 2023, according to data from Bloomberg Finance, L.P.<\/p>\n<p>So far this year (January\u2013October), JKM prices in East Asia averaged $11.47 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), and TTF prices in Europe averaged $10.37\/MMBtu. Natural gas prices have continued to decline this year mainly in response to high inventories in Europe, less natural gas consumption, and relatively stable global natural gas supplies. Current forward prices at TTF and JKM for the upcoming winter average around $15\/MMBtu.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/images\/2024.11.25\/chart2.svg\" alt=\"global liquefied natural gas export and import capacity and additions\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"source\"><strong>Data source:\u00a0<\/strong>U.S. Energy Information Administration<br \/>\n<strong>Note:\u00a0<\/strong>*Exports from Russia\u2019s Arctic-2 LNG project (0.9 Bcf\/d capacity) may not be available due to sanctions.<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>We expect limited LNG capacity additions to come online this winter.<\/strong>\u00a0Most of the new LNG export projects are in the United States, including the first of seven mid-scale trains at Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 (an expansion of the existing Corpus Christi LNG facility), Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 (consisting of 18 mid-scale trains), and additional capacity at Freeport LNG achieved through engineering and operational optimization. The combined\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/naturalgas\/importsexports\/liquefactioncapacity\/U.S.liquefactioncapacity_2024_3Q.xlsx\">nominal capacity<\/a>\u00a0of these U.S. LNG export projects is 1.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf\/d). However, during the initial start-up phase, new LNG export projects operate below nominal capacity and require several months to reach full production.<\/p>\n<p>Other markets are also adding LNG export capacity. In Mexico, a new LNG export facility on the east coast\u2014Fast LNG Altamira\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=62844\">shipped its first cargo<\/a>\u00a0in August 2024 and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ir.newfortressenergy.com\/news-releases\/news-release-details\/new-fortress-energy-provides-update-its-initial-flng-asset-1\">reached full production capacity<\/a>\u00a0in October. A new LNG export project offshore Senegal and Mauritania is on track to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.upstreamonline.com\/lng\/bp-eyes-start-up-of-challenging-lng-project-within-weeks\/2-1-1734058\">start LNG production<\/a>\u00a0by the end of 2024. After shipping several cargoes, Russia\u2019s Arctic-2 LNG export facility\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Latest-Energy-News\/World-News\/Russias-Arctic-LNG-2-Project-Put-on-Ice-With-No-Restart-Plans.html\">shut down<\/a>\u00a0in October mainly because of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/further-sanctions-to-degrade-russias-ability-to-operationalize-the-arctic-lng-2-project\/\">sanctions<\/a>\u00a0and may not produce LNG during the upcoming winter.<\/p>\n<p><strong>During the past two winters spanning 2022\u201323 and 2023\u201324, exceptionally mild weather reduced heating demand in both Europe and Asia.<\/strong>\u00a0In both\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=56400\">2023<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=62564\">2024<\/a>, Europe ended the winter heating season with record storage inventories. In 2024, the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/european-union.europa.eu\/easy-read_en\">European Union<\/a>\u00a0(EU)\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.consilium.europa.eu\/en\/press\/press-releases\/2024\/03\/25\/security-of-gas-supply-council-gives-final-green-light-to-voluntary-demand-reduction-measures\/\">extended<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/eur-lex.europa.eu\/EN\/legal-content\/summary\/coordinated-demand-reduction-measures-for-gas.html#:~:text=Accordingly%2C%20on%2025%20March%202024,April%202017%20and%20March%202022\">coordinated demand-reduction measures<\/a> through March 2025, aimed to reduce natural gas consumption by at least 15 per cent on an annual basis compared with the average during the previous five years (from April 1, 2017, to March 31, 2022). Since these policies were implemented starting in 2022, natural gas consumption in the EU declined by\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=62564\">more than 15 per cent<\/a>\u00a0in both 2023 and 2024 compared with the five-year (2017\u201322) average.<\/p>\n<p>In Asia, a decline in Japan\u2019s LNG imports last winter was more than offset by increased LNG imports into China following China\u2019s post-COVID\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/english\/PressRelease\/202401\/t20240117_1946605.html\">economic recovery<\/a>. South Korea\u2019s LNG imports remained relatively flat over the past several winters since 2020.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Natural gas storage inventories in Europe are near-full ahead of winter 2024\u201325, while increased LNG imports in Asia amid mild temperatures in September and October may indicate a rapid refilling of inventories.<\/strong> Natural gas storage inventories in the EU as of October 31, 2024, were 95 per cent full. Since the EU\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.consilium.europa.eu\/en\/press\/press-releases\/2022\/06\/27\/council-adopts-regulation-gas-storage\/\">enacted policies<\/a>\u00a0requiring storage operators to maximize storage injections during the refill season, the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/agsi.gie.eu\/\">EU\u2019s natural gas storage inventories<\/a>\u00a0have been full ahead of the winter heating season in both 2023 and 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Storage capacity in East Asia is mostly limited to above-ground cryogenic storage tanks co-located with LNG import (regasification) terminals, and it helps meet seasonal peaks in demand. LNG inventories in Japan and South Korea were relatively low at the end of this past winter heating season but remained close to 2023 peak levels in subsequent months. In China, where natural gas storage capacity can meet about 12 per cent of the country\u2019s annual natural gas consumption, record LNG imports from August to October 2024 may indicate strong refill of storage inventories ahead of winter. In the United States\u2014the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=61683\">world\u2019s largest LNG exporter<\/a>\u2014storage inventories were close to maximum volumes as of November 8, exceeding last year\u2019s inventories by 3 per cent.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/images\/2024.11.25\/chart3.svg\" alt=\"monthly natural gas and LNG inventories in Europe and Asia\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"source\"><strong>Data source:\u00a0<\/strong>Gas Infrastructure Europe, Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory (<a href=\"https:\/\/agsi.gie.eu\/#\/\">AGSI+<\/a>); Japan&#8217;s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI); Japan&#8217;s Agency for Natural Resources and Energy; Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC); South Korea Energy Economics Institute; International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL)<br \/>\n<strong>Note:\u00a0<\/strong>LNG=liquefied natural gas<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>U.S. LNG exports will continue to help balance global natural gas markets this winter.<\/strong>\u00a0The United States became the world\u2019s largest LNG exporter in 2023 and will be the key supplier to global LNG markets. In our November 2024\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/outlooks\/steo\/\"><em>Short-Term Energy Outlook<\/em><\/a>, we forecast that U.S. LNG exports will average 13.7 Bcf\/d in the 2024\u201325 winter, 8 per cent (1.0 Bcf\/d) more than in the previous winter as new and expanded projects come online in the next several months. Potential project start-up delays or other technical issues may affect our forecast.<\/p>\n<p>A colder winter could lead to high storage draws and lower storage inventory in the United States this winter, increasing domestic Henry Hub prices, which in turn would affect U.S. LNG export prices. Operational issues such as unplanned maintenance and\/or\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=61563\">production freeze-offs<\/a>\u00a0could affect both export volumes and prices at U.S. LNG facilities and raise international LNG prices.<\/p>\n<p><strong>One or more regions in the Northern Hemisphere may experience colder winter temperatures this year, as weather models point to a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/media\/news\/wmo-update-predicts-60-chance-of-la-nina\">possible shift<\/a>\u00a0from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/understanding-climate\/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-frequently-asked-questions\">El Ni\u00f1o to La Ni\u00f1a<\/a>.<\/strong>\u00a0Weather models indicate the likelihood of the formation of La Ni\u00f1a, which is generally associated with colder, drier weather in much of the Northern Hemisphere during the winter. The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecmwf.int\/\">European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts<\/a>\u00a0predicts a colder winter in Northwest and Central Europe. The last two winters were exceptionally warm, contributing to relatively low natural gas consumption in Europe, higher end-of-season storage inventories, and lower natural gas prices.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/images\/2024.11.25\/chart4.svg\" alt=\"actual and forecast winter mean temperatures vs 10-year average\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"source\"><strong>Data source:\u00a0<\/strong>European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF),\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu\/en\/metadata\/indicators\/mean-temperature\">mean temperature<\/a><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>As in the previous two winters, countries in Europe will continue implementing natural gas conservation measures and importing LNG supplies to replace natural gas pipeline imports from Russia.<\/strong>\u00a0EU countries reduced natural gas consumption\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/web\/products-eurostat-news\/w\/ddn-20230419-1\">by 18 per cent<\/a>\u00a0from August 2022 through March 2023. In the first eight months of 2024, the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=62564\">EU\u2019s natural gas consumption declined<\/a> by 22 per cent relative to the average consumption between April 2017 and March 2022.<\/p>\n<p>EU countries\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=54780\">expanded LNG import capacity by more than one-third<\/a>\u00a0between 2021 and 2024 and expect more regasification capacity expansions this winter. We estimate regasification capacity to expand in Germany, Italy, Greece, and Poland by a combined 3.5 Bcf\/d by January 2025.<\/p>\n<p>The potential expiration of the Russia-Ukraine natural gas transit contract at the end of December could reduce natural gas pipeline flows into Europe. After\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=53379\">declining by more than 40 per cent<\/a>\u00a0in 2022, Russia\u2019s pipeline exports to the EU via the sole remaining route transiting Ukraine consistently averaged 1.2 Bcf\/d to 1.4 Bcf\/d in 2023\u201324. Imports by pipeline from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=54479\">Norway<\/a>\u00a0and North Africa have limited potential for growth. Europe would have to offset the further loss of Russian supply mainly by importing more LNG and drawing down natural gas in storage. The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) estimates in its\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.entsog.eu\/sites\/default\/files\/2024-10\/SO0059-24%20Winter%20Supply%20Outlook%202024-25%20with%20Summer%20Overview%202025.pdf\"><em>Winter Supply Outlook 2024\u201325<\/em><\/a> that without Russian supplies Europe would exit the winter heating season with storage 40 per cent full under a normal winter scenario. Storage would be just 11 per cent full under a cold winter scenario, assuming LNG supplies remain at levels similar to the past two winters, and 26 per cent full, assuming higher LNG supplies than in the previous two winters.<\/p>\n<p>Should the weather turn out colder than the previous two winters in Europe, and should Asia also experience a colder winter, the global supply-demand balances will tighten given the limited incremental LNG supply coming online.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/images\/2024.11.25\/chart5.svg\" alt=\"European Union natural gas consumption and LNG imports\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"source\"><strong>Data source:\u00a0<\/strong>Eurostat, Cedigaz<br \/>\n<strong>Note:\u00a0<\/strong>LNG=liquefied natural gas<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>LNG consumption in East Asia, particularly in China, remains a key uncertainty this winter with potentially large implications for global supply-demand balances.<\/strong>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=61945\">LNG consumption<\/a> in Japan\u2013the world\u2019s second-largest LNG importer\u2013has declined every winter during the past four winters. Japan\u2019s consumption fell by 18 per cent, or 2.7 Bcf\/d, between the winter of 2020\u201321 and 2023\u201324. We do not expect a reversal of this trend. LNG imports in South Korea\u2014the world\u2019s third-largest LNG importer\u2014have been relatively flat, varying by 0.2 Bcf\/d to 0.5 Bcf\/d during the past four winters.<\/p>\n<p>China\u2014the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=62804\">world\u2019s largest LNG importer in 2023<\/a>\u2014imports LNG using long-term contracts and spot market arrangements. China\u2019s regasification capacity is set to expand by 2.8 Bcf\/d this winter, mostly in southern China, which is not directly affected by winter demand patterns.<\/p>\n<p>This year, China\u2019s LNG imports during low seasonal demand in September and October set all-time monthly records, which could indicate LNG stockpiling ahead of the upcoming winter. China increased its pipeline imports by 1.0 Bcf\/d (15 per cent) in January\u2013September 2024 compared with the 2023 annual average.<\/p>\n<p>This increase came mainly from Russia via the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline, which\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/tass.com\/economy\/1787291\">continues to ramp up to full production<\/a>, with\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/commodities\/russian-pipeline-gas-exports-china-exceed-225-bcm-2023-gazprom-2023-12-28\/\">a target to reach 3.7 Bcf\/d in export flows by 2025<\/a>. Should China experience a colder-than-normal winter, it could substantially increase LNG imports, as was the case in the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=35072\">winter of 2017\u201318<\/a>, further tightening the global supply-demand balance. If Europe also experiences a colder winter, buyers in Europe would have to compete for spot LNG cargoes, which in turn would raise prices at both European and Asian price hubs, especially if\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/tools\/glossary\/index.php?id=fuel%20switch\">fuel switching<\/a>\u00a0is not possible.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/images\/2024.11.25\/chart6.svg\" alt=\"China monthly natural gas imports\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"source\"><strong>Data source:\u00a0<\/strong>Global Trade Tracker<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>This article was published by the US Energy Information Administration on Nov. 25, 2024. By Victoria Zaretskaya The last two winters in the Northern Hemisphere were exceptionally mild, keeping global natural gas markets well supplied <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/global-natural-gas-market-may-experience-a-tighter-supply-demand-balance-this-winter\/\" title=\"Global natural gas market may experience a tighter supply-demand balance this winter\">[Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":65394,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[891,41,14,2623,34,272,2445,589],"class_list":{"0":"post-65393","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-eia","9":"tag-energy","10":"tag-featured","11":"tag-heating","12":"tag-natural-gas","13":"tag-russia","14":"tag-ukraine","15":"tag-weather"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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