{"id":65331,"date":"2024-11-17T07:01:18","date_gmt":"2024-11-17T15:01:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=65331"},"modified":"2024-11-20T14:09:01","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T22:09:01","slug":"trumps-policies-likely-to-end-with-america-distant-runner-up-in-clean-energy-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/energi-notes\/trumps-policies-likely-to-end-with-america-distant-runner-up-in-clean-energy-race\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump’s policies likely to end with “America, Distant Runner-up” in clean energy race"},"content":{"rendered":"

Barring China from US markets will have significant unintended consequences<\/h2>\n

Will Donald Trump derail the global energy transition? Probably not, because China is now driving the transition, not the US. But, as leader of the world\u2019s largest economy, he can certainly do some damage, especially to American efforts to build clean energy manufacturing of solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles, and their supply chains.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cTrump appears to be on the cusp of barricading the US economy behind a tariff wall and cementing its role as the world\u2019s biggest fossil fuel producer,\u201d writes<\/a> Bloomberg\u2019s David Fickling. \u201cThe risk for the US is that China can see how doubling down on its green push will enhance its wealth and global status, and diminish that of its rival.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump gets that China is America\u2019s chief geopolitical rival. One of the few accomplishments from his first Administration is alerting the United States to the economic threat it poses. He blustered throughout the recent election campaign about tariffs, as high as 60 per cent, he intends to levy on China.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But Trump thinks the prize is the American market. It\u2019s not.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That would be the Global South, which consists of the world\u2019s low-income and emerging economies, including Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa, India, and large swaths of Asia. These correspond roughly to the non-OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries OPEC expects to drive oil and gas demand growth to 2050 and beyond.<\/span><\/p>\n

Extending the latest World Oil Outlook<\/a> report\u2019s time horizon to 2050 \u201camplifies the role of India, Other Asia, Africa and the Middle East as the key sources of incremental demand in the coming years,\u201d OPEC says.<\/span><\/p>\n

Twenty-two million barrels per day of incremental demand, compared to an 11 million barrels per day decline in the OECD.<\/span><\/p>\n

Minimizing China\u2019s presence in the Global South would seem like a logical strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

China has enormous under-utilized manufacturing capacity in the key clean energy technologies (wind, solar, batteries, EVs, heat pumps). At the Third Plenum a few months ago, the national government committed to \u201cthree new things\u201d – solar, batteries, EVs – as the primary focus of its industrial strategy going forward. While it sounds crazy to Westerners, even with all that idle plant, over the next decade China is committed to investing as much or more as its Western rivals in building even more facilities.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Where will all that production go?<\/span><\/p>\n

The US and Canada will be closed for business. Europe is slowing imports of China\u2019s clean energy tech with its own tariffs. Japan and South Korea aren\u2019t keen about China flooding their markets, which aren\u2019t that big anyway. China’s domestic market is big, but not that big.<\/span><\/p>\n

The only outlet for all that pent up manufacturing is the Global South.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Not surprisingly, Chinese companies are already building EV plants in key markets like Brazil and Thailand while doubling EV exports from 1.3 million units in 2023 to 2.7 million this year. China\u2019s Belt and Road initiative is supporting infrastructure designed to export resources (e.g. Brazil soybeans) and import manufactured goods. For example, China invested $1.3 billion in Peru\u2019s $3.5 billion <\/span>recently opened Chancay port<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cChancay is the latest development in a <\/span>worrying pattern<\/span><\/a> of Chinese state-owned companies, which are beholden to the political interests of their government, building and operating ports in strategic waterways across the world, from the Aegean Sea to the Panama Canal,\u201d the Atlantic Council <\/span>reported<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Biden Administration\u2019s response is the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity, designed to lever private capital along with US public funds to build infrastructure. The project hasn\u2019t come close to matching China\u2019s hustle. The Atlantic Council says that President Xi Jinping intends to sign more economic agreements this year with Latin American countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

This is in a region the US has considered its \u201cbackyard\u201d for over a century.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

China is on the move.<\/span><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s assume Trump slaps higher tariffs on Chinese goods when he assumes office in January. That will sting, but China\u2019s leaders are ready with a pushback strategy of their own. You can bet it includes more attention to the Global South.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given Trump\u2019s antipathy to clean energy and his frequently stated desire to roll back Biden climate initiatives, there is a very good chance he will exit office in 2029 with US suppliers of clean energy products still not competitive with China. Perhaps costs will be low enough to speed up the American energy transition, but it\u2019s unlikely firms will be active much beyond their domestic market. Meanwhile, their Chinese competitors will be firmly entrenched in the regions where growth is most expected.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s second term is very likely to end with the US a distant second place in the clean energy arms race, perhaps even third behind Europe.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201c[W]hile Trump is caught up with short-term and transactional wins, Xi has been laser-focused on coming out on top in the long run,\u201d says Fickling.<\/span><\/p>\n

How ironic that his \u201cAmerica First\u201d strategy may end with an \u201cAmerica, Distant Runner-up\u201d Reality.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Barring China from US markets will have significant unintended consequences Will Donald Trump derail the global energy transition? Probably not, because China is now driving the transition, not the US. But, as leader of the [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":59902,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2495],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-65331","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-energi-notes"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrump's policies likely to end with "America, Distant Runner-up" in clean energy race - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/energi-notes\/trumps-policies-likely-to-end-with-america-distant-runner-up-in-clean-energy-race\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump's policies likely to end with "America, Distant Runner-up" in clean energy race - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Barring China from US markets will have significant unintended consequences Will Donald Trump derail the global energy transition? 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