{"id":65269,"date":"2024-11-12T10:40:14","date_gmt":"2024-11-12T18:40:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=65269"},"modified":"2024-11-12T10:40:14","modified_gmt":"2024-11-12T18:40:14","slug":"china-could-fill-the-void-as-trump-casts-shadow-over-cop29","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/china-could-fill-the-void-as-trump-casts-shadow-over-cop29\/","title":{"rendered":"China could fill the void as Trump casts shadow over COP29"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>This article was published by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/china-could-fill-the-void-as-trump-casts-shadow-over-cop29\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Energy Mix<\/a> on Nov. 12, 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>By Gaye Taylor<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Donald Trump\u2019s re-election looms large as COP29 begins, with some experts warning of a toxic impact on climate negotiations, while others foresee the rise of a \u201ccoalition of the willing\u201d led by China and buoyed by shifting markets.<\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019s return to office \u201cwill drip poison into the climate talks,\u201d Victoria Cuming, head of global policy at BloombergNEF\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-11-11\/cop29-trump-win-upends-climate-cash-fight-in-baku?cmpid=BBD111124_GREENDAILY&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_term=241111&amp;utm_campaign=greendaily\">told<\/a>\u00a0Bloomberg News. His vow to pull out of the Paris deal and possibly the entire United Nations process will widen a divide between industrialized economies and developing ones, potentially undercutting progress at future summits.<\/p>\n<p>The stakes are high, with the UN Environment Program projecting\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/record-global-emissions-put-warming-on-track-for-catastrophic-2-6-3-1c-un-warns\/\">warming of at least 2.6\u00b0C<\/a>\u00a0by the end of the century. \u201cOne of the most pressing questions for negotiators is how they respond to Trump\u2019s election victory and the prospect of losing the world\u2019s biggest economy in the fight against climate change,\u201d Bloomberg writes.<\/p>\n<p>A \u201cclarifying moment\u201d might arise,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/marrakech-climate-meeting-could-be-the-action-cop\/\">similar to COP22 in Marrakech<\/a>, when nations braced for climate pushback from the United States under Trump\u2019s first term, Camilla Born, independent climate advisor and a United Kingdom official at COP26, told a panel discussion\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=hk2QnmNa8Hw\">hosted<\/a>\u00a0by Carbon Brief. But while major economies invested in climate action may press on, Trump\u2019s return could dampen the resolve of countries still \u201con the fence,\u201d\u00a0 Born added.<\/p>\n<p>It is up to the rest of the world, especially Europe, Japan, Australia, and Canada, to provide the confidence that developing countries are seeking, said Mohamed Adow, founding director of Power Shift Africa.<\/p>\n<p>Even under Democratic leadership, the U.S. was not a wellspring of momentum, he added, \u201cso we\u2019re not going to panic in Baku.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But there is an opportunity for the emergence of a \u201ccoalition of the willing\u201d to help fill the void and provide assurances, particularly in delivering on international climate finance goals, Adow added.<\/p>\n<h2>Climate Finance Takes Centre Stage<\/h2>\n<p>A top priority at COP29 is the New Collective Quantified Goal (<a href=\"https:\/\/thecommonwealth.org\/news\/cop29\/new-collective-quantified-goal-and-supporting-access-climate-finance#:~:text=The%20New%20Collective%20Quantified%20Goal%20(NCQG)%20on%20climate%20finance%20is,their%20climate%20actions%20post%2D2025.\">NCQG<\/a>) on climate finance, aiming to exceed the earlier target of US$100 billion per year\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cgdev.org\/blog\/100-billion-climate-finance-provided-fact-or-fiction#:~:text=If%20the%20target%20was%20to,of%20climate%20finance%20was%20provided.\">proposed in 2009 and finally met in 2022<\/a>. It must be replaced with something much larger, \u201cpossibly in the trillions of dollars per year,\u201d says Bloomberg.<\/p>\n<p>This will require a \u201cmulti-layered approach,\u201d the news agency adds, with the pledged money coming not only from rich countries\u2019 treasuries, but also from the private sector and multilateral development banks.<\/p>\n<p>However, Trump\u2019s election victory \u201cis not good news for the climate finance issue\u201d said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. Still, he said he has confidence that COP29 will reach a finance deal\u2014and that China will play a commanding role in the process.<\/p>\n<h2>China, Europe Can Shape the Future<\/h2>\n<p>Shuo said China understands the historical weight of this COP, especially the optics around \u201cthe way that they agree and make compromises with other countries.\u201d The country\u2019s response will be \u201cthe basis for the rest of the world to judge the future of global climate governance,\u201d something China has heavily invested in over the last decade.<\/p>\n<p>Shuo also suggested that the extensive climate consultations ongoing between the Joe Biden and Xi Jinping administrations may continue via\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usip.org\/publications\/2019\/07\/primer-multi-track-diplomacy-how-does-it-work\">back channel diplomacy<\/a>\u2014even after Trump is in the White House.<\/p>\n<p>There is a larger story happening in the background, he added. A global green economic transformation is under way, led by China\u2019s robust development of its cleantech industry, which itself is based on very basic market principles. \u201cThat logic will not be changed by the U.S. election outcome.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As the world\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"about:blank\">fourth top emitter<\/a>\u00a0after India, as well as a climate action heavyweight, the EU can be expected to step into the breach, Shuo added, suggesting efforts to repair strained relations between China and the EU are likely in the cards.<\/p>\n<h2>U.S. Faces Policy Setbacks, Disinformation<\/h2>\n<p>Months ago, Carbon Brief\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/clean-energy-community-mobilizes-as-trump-rises-supporters-embrace-project-2025\/\">calculated<\/a>\u00a0that a second Trump presidency could lead to an extra four billion tonnes of climate pollution by 2030, negating \u201ctwice over\u2014all of the savings from deploying wind, solar, and other clean technologies around the world over the past five years.\u201d Report author Simon Evans, Carbon Brief deputy editor and senior policy editor, said only time will tell whether such projections become reality.<\/p>\n<p>Some protection may come from provisions in the\u00a0<em>Inflation Reduction Act\u00a0<\/em>that make it difficult to roll back, and evidence, especially in Republican strongholds, that\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/clean-energy-community-mobilizes-as-trump-rises-supporters-embrace-project-2025\/\">the IRA is doing a great deal of good<\/a>. But further emissions may be in the cards if Trump permits several new LNG export terminals and opens up federal lands for more drilling.<\/p>\n<p>A rise in climate disinformation is a certain bet, Evans added. \u201cWhatever stuff Trump says about climate, no matter how crazy it is, that is going to be in headlines, that\u2019s going to be amplified and reflected in the media,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd so unfortunately, I think, for the likes of Carbon Brief, we are going to have a bit more of a job on our hands in terms of responding to that.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>This article was published by The Energy Mix on Nov. 12, 2024. By Gaye Taylor Donald Trump\u2019s re-election looms large as COP29 begins, with some experts warning of a toxic impact on climate negotiations, while <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/china-could-fill-the-void-as-trump-casts-shadow-over-cop29\/\" title=\"China could fill the void as Trump casts shadow over COP29\">[Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":65270,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[120,80,14,584,2196],"class_list":{"0":"post-65269","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-clean-energy","9":"tag-environment","10":"tag-featured","11":"tag-trump","12":"tag-un"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>COP29 - 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