{"id":64599,"date":"2024-08-15T09:39:44","date_gmt":"2024-08-15T16:39:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=64599"},"modified":"2024-08-15T09:39:44","modified_gmt":"2024-08-15T16:39:44","slug":"diesel-consumption-falls-in-china-due-to-reduced-economic-activity-and-fuel-substitution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/diesel-consumption-falls-in-china-due-to-reduced-economic-activity-and-fuel-substitution\/","title":{"rendered":"Diesel consumption falls in China due to reduced economic activity and fuel substitution"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>This article was published by the US Energy Information Administration on Aug. 15, 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>By Jeff Barron<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Our estimates of diesel consumption in China totalled 3.9 million barrels per day (b\/d) in June 2024, a decline of 11 per cent from the same month last year and the largest year-over-year decline in consumption for any month since July 2021.<\/p>\n<p data-type=\"inbrief\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/images\/2024.08.15\/main.svg\" alt=\"monthly China diesel apparent demand\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"source\"><strong>Data source:\u00a0<\/strong>China National Bureau of Statistics, China General Administration of Customs, and Bloomberg L.P.<br \/>\n<strong>Note:\u00a0<\/strong>We define apparent demand as refinery production plus imports minus exports.<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p>From 2020 to 2022, China\u2019s government, businesses, and communities used social distancing and stay-at-home orders as the primary method to prevent the spread of COVID-19, which regularly disrupted travel and caused fluctuations in diesel consumption. After establishing another all-time high in 2023, diesel consumption began declining in the second quarter of 2024. We attribute the recent decline in diesel consumption to two major factors\u2014slowing economic activity, mostly because of a slowdown in building and housing construction, and the substitution of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for petroleum diesel fuel in heavy-duty trucks.<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s GDP\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/english\/PressRelease\/202407\/t20240715_1955620.html\">grew 4.7 per cent<\/a>\u00a0from last year in the second quarter of 2024, a bit less than the government\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/china-step-up-economic-policy-adjustments-2024-state-planner-says-2024-03-06\/\">target<\/a> of 5 per cent. Although faster than most growth rates in developed economies in OECD countries, this GDP growth rate is several percentage points slower than China\u2019s growth rate in the years before the pandemic. Consumption and investment indicators partially explain the slower growth rate. Although volatile around the pandemic years, changes in retail sales, housing prices, and producer prices in China all show slowing or declining activity in 2024. Slowdowns in trucking activity and construction correlate with reductions in China\u2019s diesel consumption because diesel consumption is linked with these economic activities.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/images\/2024.08.15\/chart2.svg\" alt=\"China select economic indicators\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"source\"><strong>Data source:\u00a0<\/strong>China National Bureau of Statistics and Bloomberg L.P.<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Aside from less use of diesel because of slowing economic activity in the construction and property sectors, a small but growing share of China\u2019s trucking fleet is using LNG instead of diesel for fuel. According to data and analysis from BloombergNEF, LNG truck sales have made up around 20 per cent of total truck sales from the third quarter of 2023 through March 2024. Although still small relative to the total truck fleet in China, the growing market share of LNG trucks is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/commodityinsights\/en\/market-insights\/latest-news\/lng\/062624-china-nears-peak-gasoil-demand-as-lng-fueled-heavy-duty-truck-sales-surge\">displacing some<\/a>\u00a0diesel consumption in the country.<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/data.stats.gov.cn\/english\/easyquery.htm?cn=A01\">National Bureau of Statistics<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/english.customs.gov.cn\/\">General Administration of Customs<\/a>\u00a0publishes monthly data on crude oil refinery processing, refined petroleum product output, crude oil and petroleum product imports, and crude oil and petroleum product exports. The agencies do not publish inventory levels or stock changes. Because of this exclusion, we calculate China\u2019s apparent demand of diesel as refinery production of diesel plus imports minus exports. This calculation is different from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/tools\/glossary\/index.php?id=Product%20supplied\">product supplied<\/a>, our proxy for consumption in the United States, which accounts for stock changes. Despite lacking inventory data, China\u2019s monthly petroleum statistics can serve as a useful guide for general trends in the country\u2019s petroleum market.<\/p>\n<p>We slightly reduced our forecast petroleum consumption growth in China in our August\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/outlooks\/steo\/\"><em>Short-Term Energy Outlook<\/em><\/a>. We forecast China\u2019s petroleum and liquid fuels consumption will grow by about 0.3 million b\/d in 2024 and in 2025. Our forecast growth rate is slower than the 2015\u201319 average annual growth rate of 0.5 million b\/d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>This article was published by the US Energy Information Administration on Aug. 15, 2024. By Jeff Barron Our estimates of diesel consumption in China totalled 3.9 million barrels per day (b\/d) in June 2024, a <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/diesel-consumption-falls-in-china-due-to-reduced-economic-activity-and-fuel-substitution\/\" title=\"Diesel consumption falls in China due to reduced economic activity and fuel substitution\">[Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":64602,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[91,80,14,95,224,549,1218],"class_list":{"0":"post-64599","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-china","9":"tag-environment","10":"tag-featured","11":"tag-fossil-fuels","12":"tag-lng","13":"tag-transportation","14":"tag-trucking"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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