{"id":64292,"date":"2024-07-13T11:52:30","date_gmt":"2024-07-13T18:52:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=64292"},"modified":"2024-07-13T11:52:30","modified_gmt":"2024-07-13T18:52:30","slug":"canadas-worst-case-oil-gas-scenario-is-a-taxpayers-nightmare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/energi-notes\/canadas-worst-case-oil-gas-scenario-is-a-taxpayers-nightmare\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada&#8217;s worst case oil\/gas scenario is a taxpayer&#8217;s nightmare"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><strong>In the end, it may be voters laying awake, staring at the ceiling, wondering how the oil industry&#8217;s bills will be paid<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Business owners are asked all the time how they intend to repay a loan in a worst case scenario. The lender would be negligent to not ask the question. Why, then, are politicians not asking the same question of oil companies looking for public subsidies (think carbon capture and storage)?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I call this Mother\u2019s Admonition: Hope for the best and plan for the worst, but under no circumstances should you plan for the best and ignore the worst.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yet, this is precisely what Canada does. Over and over again when it comes to the oil and gas industry.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s look at just one example, the Alberta oil sands.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oil sands are the big kahunas of the Canadian industry. Alberta total oil production is 4 million barrels per day and 3.3 million barrels per day (83%) comes from the oil sands. That puts Alberta on par with Middle Eastern producers like Iran and Iraq. Hydrocarbons, led by the oil sands, are Canada\u2019s leading export by a mile, usually twice that of automobiles and parts. Nationally, the sector directly employs 208,000 workers.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/iLsWDp2742w?si=f0abatC1PQ4R75T8\" width=\"300\" height=\"166\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The oil sands\u2019 Achilles Heel is greenhouse gas emissions. All by itself, it accounts for 12 per cent (84 megatonnes in 2022) of Canada\u2019s total. Some recent projects with a better resource have emissions per barrel of around 40 kilograms of CO2 equivalent (kg per CO2e\/b), which is in the ballpark of the US national crude oil average of 31 kgs. But plenty have much higher emissions, some as high as 160 kg per CO2e\/b. The industry average is 68 kg per CO2e\/b, one of the highest in the world.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Canadian Energy Regulator modeling shows that if oil demand peaks then declines, causing prices to fall, the cost of decarbonizing that emissions-intense bitumen rapidly leads to falling production beginning in the 2030s.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/share.transistor.fm\/e\/1b8c4622\" width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless=\"\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s the worst case scenario for the oil sands, but it\u2019s entirely plausible, according to economic modeling from BP and many other organizations (the International Energy Agency, BloombergNEF, Rocky Mountain Institute, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, to name a few).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If oil sands companies begin to fail, or if their revenue is barely enough to survive, who covers their losses? There are three types of losses taxpayers should worry about because the numbers are really, really big.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>#1 &#8211; $130 billion of environmental liabilities<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Who cleans up old assets after they no longer produce oil? For the oil sands, those liabilities could be well north of $130 billion. You read that correctly: billions. The reason for the huge number is that Alberta has never, ever taken security to pay for reclamation at the beginning of an asset\u2019s life. Instead, it assumes the company will be around to pay for clean up. What happens when those companies can\u2019t pay?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is a deeply flawed system that Alberta refuses to change. The federal government doesn\u2019t have the constitutional jurisdiction to change it, even if it was inclined to, which it is not.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>#2 &#8211; $50 billion of decarbonization subsidies<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The second type of loss is the subsidies the oil sands are demanding to decarbonize. The Pathways Alliance, the oil sands companies\u2019 lobby group, puts the bill at around $75 billion, of which Cenovus executive Alex Pourbais has said that governments must pay $50 billion. Ottawa has already provided over $7 billion of investment tax incentives just for the oil sands and more is expected. The Alberta government announced its own support program.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The companies are asking for much more. They hint that current carbon capture plans may be delayed or canceled if more regulatory and financial \u201ccertainty\u201d is not provided by governments.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>#3- Stranded assets (who knows?)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This number is harder to pin down. Environmental liabilities are a stranded asset, so they aren\u2019t included, but carbon capture and storage infrastructure is not.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Will taxpayers provide the subsidies to build capture equipment for oil sands projects, the pipeline feeders, the CO2 pipeline to a storage hub near Cold Lake, Alberta &#8211; then have to pay down the road to rip up all that material and reclaim the landscape?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yes, in the event of a worst case scenario. There is no one else to do it. Unless, of course, governments decide not to clean up anything and Alberta is left with 9,000 square kilometres of heavily disturbed northern ecosystem filled with dozens of huge ponds filled with toxic tailings and several dozen giant industrial complexes, including all the associated infrastructure.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Bottom line: many hundreds of billions on the line<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Add up all the potential costs and the worst case scenario for the oil sands is a massive expense. Certainly more than Alberta taxpayers could manage, which means all Canadians would be on the hook.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Are politicians, regulators, and industry considering that worst case scenario?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">About six months ago, I emailed the offices of Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson and Environment and Canadian Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault. I asked if the ministers had considered worst case scenario modeling when considering carbon capture and storage subsidies. A straightforward answer was not forthcoming.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">During Alberta Premier Danielle Smith\u2019s press conference at September\u2019s World Petroleum Congress in Calgary, I asked her if she had a Plan B if her rosy view of the oil and gas future didn\u2019t pan out. There is no Plan B.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The reasonable conclusion is that the Alberta and Canadian governments are committing taxpayers to unimaginable amounts of potential financial obligations and liability without properly assessing the risk of a worst case scenario.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And that\u2019s just for the oil sands. There is still Alberta and Saskatchewan conventional oil and gas production, British Columbia gas production, and the East Coast industry to consider.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">How do politicians sleep at night? CEOs presumably sleep like babies because they are happily transferring as much of their risk as possible to the Canadian public.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the end, it may be voters laying awake, staring at the ceiling, wondering how the bills will be paid in the harsh light of day.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>In the end, it may be voters laying awake, staring at the ceiling, wondering how the oil industry&#8217;s bills will be paid Business owners are asked all the time how they intend to repay a <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/energi-notes\/canadas-worst-case-oil-gas-scenario-is-a-taxpayers-nightmare\/\" title=\"Canada&#8217;s worst case oil\/gas scenario is a taxpayer&#8217;s nightmare\">[Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":59902,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2495],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-64292","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-energi-notes"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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