{"id":63310,"date":"2024-05-02T09:20:34","date_gmt":"2024-05-02T16:20:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=63310"},"modified":"2024-05-02T09:20:34","modified_gmt":"2024-05-02T16:20:34","slug":"ieas-ev-outlook-2024-should-be-5-alarm-crisis-for-canadian-ceos-policymakers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/energi-notes\/ieas-ev-outlook-2024-should-be-5-alarm-crisis-for-canadian-ceos-policymakers\/","title":{"rendered":"IEA’s EV Outlook 2024 should be 5-alarm crisis for Canadian CEOs, policymakers"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cReports of the demise of electric vehicles have been greatly exaggerated\u201d – S&P Global Mobility<\/a><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Electric vehicle (EV) sales are growing, not slowing, according to a new report<\/a> from the International Energy Agency (IEA). But in the past six months the EV narrative has changed dramatically, from high growth to sputtering sales, perhaps even the end of transportation electrification. What\u2019s going on?<\/span><\/p>\n

In a word, change. Let\u2019s start with the IEA\u2019s data.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: Global EV Outlook 2024, IEA.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Global sales grew by 35 per cent in 2023, adding 14 million to a global fleet of 40 million electric cars and trucks. That\u2019s still a drop in the bucket, only 2.6 per cent of the global automotive fleet of just under 1.5 billion. And sales were concentrated in just three regions: China (60%), Europe (25%), and the USA (10%). Major markets like Japan and India still haven\u2019t warmed to electric cars.<\/span><\/p>\n

The big story, though, is the automotive industry.<\/span><\/p>\n

Roughly 25 years ago, China decided that its rather large automotive industry would never catch up with American and European internal combustion engine technology. The national government went all-in on \u201cnew energy vehicles\u201d by employing what was then an outmoded idea: industrial policy. Generous support was provided on both the supply (manufacturing) and demand (consumers) side. The government also invested in supply chains, like batteries, and infrastructure, like public charging stations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Not long ago, China had 700 EV makers. Now it has 100. Fierce competition and thin (often non-existent) margins are expected to thin out the herd to around a dozen.<\/span><\/p>\n

Leading Chinese companies like BYD are destroying the competition. Tesla is frantically cutting prices to remain relevant to China\u2019s consumers. Legacy manufacturers like GM, Ford, and VW are cutting back EV plans, partly because they haven\u2019t mastered the basics like software and batteries. Meanwhile, China is packing more and more desirable technology into its \u201crolling iPhones,\u201d which is what consumers want.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: Global EV Outlook 2024, IEA.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

While China\u2019s EV makers focused on the low to mid-range of the market and learned how to make a $10,000 car, like BYD\u2019s Dolphin. That expertise is under-valued by the West and the oil-producing nations. China is already beginning to export EVs in large quantities to emerging economies in Latin America and Asia. In some cases, like BYD in Brazil, they are building factories to serve local demand.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Cheap EVs coupled with cheap solar panels looks to be a winning combination in markets where price really counts: emerging economies. Why build landlines when you can buy cell phones?<\/span><\/p>\n

You can listen to or read the transcript of my Energi Talks interview (China’s EV revolution: What makes it tick?<\/a>) with Anders Hove, a member of the China Energy Research Programme at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.<\/p>\n

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellin was recently in China fretting over the clean energy manufacturing \u201cover-capacity\u201d that has driven down prices for solar, batteries, and EVs. Especially worrying is that China\u2019s government intends to keep on subsidizing more and more production. Where will all those surplus units go? To more and more low to middle-income markets, of course.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, legacy automakers are struggling to pivot to electric. Pursuing their usual strategy of starting at the high end of the market now appears short-sighted and foolish. When car salesmen complain in American news stories about how there aren\u2019t enough \u201cearly adopters,\u201d what they mean is that the pool of buyers willing to fork over $80,000 to $100,000 – or more – for a Ford F-150 Lightning is rapidly diminishing.<\/span><\/p>\n

But Hyundai says that they could sell twice as many of the Ioniq 5 (which starts in the low $40,000s, mid-$30,000s with rebates) if their South Korean factories could produce them.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: Global EV Outlook 2024, IEA.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Consumers aren\u2019t the problem.<\/span><\/p>\n

The North American industry and governments\u2019 reluctance to invest in public charging infrastructure at anything like China\u2019s pace is also a huge problem. BloombergNEF estimates that $100 billion has been invested globally in charging. But look at the distribution: China accounts for 69 per cent, with Europe a distant second at 17 per cent, and the US at a paltry six per cent.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Why the IEA report is important<\/b><\/h3>\n

Too often, North Americans are fixated on their own navels and forget there is a big world out there. The IEA provides a global lens on the EV industry\u2019s future. <\/span><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what automotive veteran Carlos Tavares, Stellantis CEO, thinks of that future.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe magnitude of the Chinese offensive, the competitiveness that they can demonstrate and the massive arrival of all of their best carmakers is a significant change,\u201d he told Bloomberg a few months ago. \u201cIf the automotive industry doesn\u2019t move, this industry will disappear under the offensive of the Chinese industry.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

BYD\u2019s CEO Wang Chuanfu has <\/span>declared war<\/span><\/a> on gasoline, calling on other Chinese EV makers to \u201ckill\u201d combustion technology. The IEA modelling shows what that war might look like.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: Global EV Outlook 2024, IEA.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Under the Announced Policies Scenario (APS), the most likely in my opinion, the global EV fleet reaches 600 million by 2035, just 11 years away. EVs account for two-thirds of all vehicle sales by then. Include similar (though somewhat less aggressive) trends for two and three-wheelers, buses, medium-duty trucks, and long-distance freight haulers, and it\u2019s not hard to imagine Chuanfu winning his war against gasoline and diesel.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Americans and Europeans are waking up to the China threat. Canada, unfortunately, remains mired in the energy past, captured by oil and gas incumbents that refuse to adapt to a rapidly changing global energy system.<\/span><\/p>\n

The IEA\u2019s 2024 EV Outlook should be required reading for Canadian CEOs and policymakers at all levels.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cReports of the demise of electric vehicles have been greatly exaggerated\u201d – S&P Global Mobility Electric vehicle (EV) sales are growing, not slowing, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). But [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":59902,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2495],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-63310","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-energi-notes"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIEA's EV Outlook 2024 should be 5-alarm crisis for Canadian CEOs, policymakers - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/energi-notes\/ieas-ev-outlook-2024-should-be-5-alarm-crisis-for-canadian-ceos-policymakers\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"IEA's EV Outlook 2024 should be 5-alarm crisis for Canadian CEOs, policymakers - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u201cReports of the demise of electric vehicles have been greatly exaggerated\u201d – S&P Global Mobility Electric vehicle (EV) sales are growing, not slowing, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). 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