{"id":62707,"date":"2024-03-27T10:03:07","date_gmt":"2024-03-27T17:03:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=62707"},"modified":"2024-03-27T10:03:07","modified_gmt":"2024-03-27T17:03:07","slug":"extreme-heat-drives-up-food-prices-just-how-bad-will-it-get","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/extreme-heat-drives-up-food-prices-just-how-bad-will-it-get\/","title":{"rendered":"Extreme heat drives up food prices. Just how bad will it get?"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by Grist<\/a> on March 27, 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Kate Yoder<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Sometimes climate change appears where you least expect it \u2014 like the grocery store. Food prices have climbed\u00a025 per cent<\/a>\u00a0over the past four years, and Americans have been shocked by the growing cost of staples like beef, sugar, and citrus.<\/p>\n

While many factors, like supply chain disruptions and labor shortages, have contributed to this increase, extreme heat is already raising food prices, and it\u2019s bound to get worse, according to\u00a0a recent study<\/a>\u00a0published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment. The analysis found that heatflation could drive up food prices around the world by as much as 3 percentage points per year in just over a decade and by about 2 percentage points in North America. For overall inflation, extreme weather could lead to anywhere from a 0.3 to 1.2 percentage point increase each year depending on how many carbon emissions countries pump into the atmosphere.<\/p>\n

Though that might sound small, it\u2019s actually \u201cmassive,\u201d according to Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia Business School. \u201cThat\u2019s half of the Fed\u2019s overall goal for inflation,\u201d he said, referencing the Federal Reserve\u2019s long-term aim of\u00a0limiting it to 2 per cent<\/a>. The Labor Department recently reported that consumer prices climbed\u00a03.2 per cent<\/a>\u00a0over the past 12 months.<\/p>\n

The link between heat and rising food prices is intuitive \u2014 if wheat starts withering and dying, you can bet flour is going to get more expensive. When Europe\u00a0broiled in heat waves in 2022<\/a>, it pushed up food prices that were already soaring due to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine (known as the breadbasket of Europe), researchers at the Europe Central Bank and Potsdam Institute in Germany found in the new study. Europe saw a record-breaking\u00a09.2 per cent<\/a>\u00a0inflation that year, and the summer heat alone, which hurt\u00a0soy, sunflower, and maize harvests<\/a>, might have been responsible for almost a full percentage point of that increase.<\/p>\n

To figure out how climate change might drive inflation in the future, the researchers analyzed monthly price indices for goods across 121 countries over the past quarter-century. No place on the planet looks immune. Countries in North Africa and the Middle East, where hot temperatures already push the comfortable limits of some crops, are expected to see some of the biggest price shocks.<\/p>\n

The study\u2019s results were striking, Wagner said, but at the same time very believable. He thinks the calculations are probably on the conservative end of the spectrum: \u201cI wouldn\u2019t be surprised if follow-up studies actually came up with even higher numbers.\u201d<\/p>\n

It adds up to a troubling picture for the future affordability of food. \u201cThe coronavirus pandemic demonstrated how sensitive supply changes are to disruption and how that disruption can awaken inflation,\u201d David A. Super, a professor of law and economics at Georgetown University Law Center, wrote in an email. \u201cThe disruptive effects of climate change are orders of magnitude greater than those of the pandemic and will cause economic dislocation on a far greater scale.\u201d<\/p>\n

The world began paying attention to the dynamic between climate change and higher prices, or \u201cclimateflation,\u201d in March 2022, soon after Russia invaded Ukraine, when the German economist Isabel Schnabel coined the term in\u00a0a speech<\/a>\u00a0warning that the world faced \u201ca new age of energy inflation.\u201d A few months later,\u00a0Grist coined the term \u201cheatflation\u201d<\/a>\u00a0in an article about how blistering temperatures were driving up food prices.<\/p>\n

The difference between the terms is akin to \u201cglobal warming\u201d vs. \u201cclimate change,\u201d with one focused on hotter temperatures and the other on broader effects. Still, \u201cheatflation\u201d might be the more appropriate term, Wagner said, given that price effects from climate change appear to come mostly from extreme heat. The new study didn\u2019t find a strong link between shifts in precipitation and inflation.<\/p>\n

The research lends some credibility to the title of the landmark climate change bill that President Joe Biden signed in 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act. While it\u2019s an open joke that the name was\u00a0a marketing term<\/a>\u00a0meant to capitalize on Americans\u2019 concerns about rising prices, it might be more fitting, in the end, than people expected. \u201cWe shouldn\u2019t be making fun of the name Inflation Reduction Act, because in the long run, it is exactly the right term to use,\u201d Wagner said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by Grist on March 27, 2024. By Kate Yoder Sometimes climate change appears where you least expect it \u2014 like the grocery store. Food prices have climbed\u00a025 per cent\u00a0over the past [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":62708,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2520,109,80,14,1206,1640],"class_list":{"0":"post-62707","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-agriculture","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-environment","11":"tag-featured","12":"tag-inflation","13":"tag-living"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nheatflation - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Heatflation could drive up food prices around the world by as much as 3 percentage points per year in just over a decade.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/extreme-heat-drives-up-food-prices-just-how-bad-will-it-get\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"heatflation - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Heatflation could drive up food prices around the world by as much as 3 percentage points per year in just over a decade.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/extreme-heat-drives-up-food-prices-just-how-bad-will-it-get\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/energimedia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-03-27T17:03:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/heatflation-Farmers-Weekly.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"645\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"400\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Energi Staff\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@EnergiMedia\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@EnergiMedia\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Energi Staff\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/news\\\/extreme-heat-drives-up-food-prices-just-how-bad-will-it-get\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/news\\\/extreme-heat-drives-up-food-prices-just-how-bad-will-it-get\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Energi Staff\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/07051d0cfb14da284c97fb8ff214caf7\"},\"headline\":\"Extreme heat drives up food prices. 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