{"id":62654,"date":"2024-03-22T12:00:17","date_gmt":"2024-03-22T19:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=62654"},"modified":"2024-03-22T12:00:17","modified_gmt":"2024-03-22T19:00:17","slug":"the-stakes-could-not-be-higher-as-canada-sets-its-2035-emissions-target","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/the-stakes-could-not-be-higher-as-canada-sets-its-2035-emissions-target\/","title":{"rendered":"The stakes could not be higher as Canada sets its 2035 emissions target"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Conversation<\/a> on March 21, 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Christopher Campbell-Durufl\u00e9<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\n

The Government of Canada is in the midst of a\u00a0public engagement on the 2035 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The timeline is short, and the stakes could not be higher.<\/p>\n

According to Section 7 of the\u00a0Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act<\/a>\u00a0(Net-Zero Act), the 2035 milestone must be set by December 2024,\u00a0in time to be formally announced to other Paris Agreement members in 2025<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The risks of delaying decisive action are huge, with the European Union\u2019s climate change service recently warning that global average temperatures have now reached\u00a01.52 C of warming<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Why 1.5 C matters<\/h2>\n

Section 8 of the Net-Zero Act requires the 2035 target to take into account the best scientific information available, Canada\u2019s international commitments, Indigenous knowledge, and the recommendations of the\u00a0Net-Zero Advisory Body<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The scientific community is resolute that there are \u201crobust differences<\/a>\u201d between\u00a0global warming of 1.5 C and 2 C<\/a>, including increases in hot extremes and heavy precipitation.\u00a0For Canadians<\/a>, extreme heat has been the deadliest impact so far, with at least 619 deaths caused by the 2021 heat dome alone.<\/p>\n

A\u00a0recent report<\/a>\u00a0found that \u201cin 2025, Canada will experience $25 billion in losses relative to a stable-climate scenario, which is equal to 50 per cent of projected 2025 GDP growth.\u201d Climate change related damages could reach between $78 and $101 billion annually by mid-century if adequate action is not taken.<\/p>\n

Senior climate scientist at the University of the Bahamas Adelle Thomas notes that for island states and least-developed countries\u00a0\u201c\u2018one-point-five to stay alive\u2019 is reality, it\u2019s not a slogan.\u201d<\/a>\u00a0Here and abroad, equity-seeking groups are those worst impacted.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"A
A flooded street after heavy rains in Avellaneda on the outskirts of Buenos Aires, Argentina on March 12, 2024. A 2 C rise will see much more extensive, and severe, flooding across Canada and the world, as opposed to a more limited 1.5 C temperature rise.\u00a0(AP Photo\/Natacha Pisarenko)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Why participate?<\/h2>\n

The federal government\u2019s\u00a0public engagement platform<\/a>\u00a0is available until March 28, 2024. While not perfect \u2014 I personally felt that the questions put too much emphasis on how to prioritize actions as opposed to the pace of action and how to fairly distribute transition costs \u2014 individuals and organizations can also upload a document of their choice to contribute beyond the questions provided.<\/p>\n

\n

Read more:\u00a0How climate assemblies can help Canada tackle the climate crisis<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\n

These submissions correspond to Section 13 of the Net-Zero Act, which allows any interested person to make submissions on how to respond to what the Supreme Court\u00a0described<\/a>\u00a0as \u201can existential threat to human life in Canada and around the world.\u201d The Paris Agreement also envisions target-setting as a bottom-up process, and Article 12 calls on states to enhance \u201ceducation, training, public awareness, public participation and public access to information.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ongoing issues<\/h2>\n

Canada\u2019s current targets under the Net-Zero Act are a 20 per cent emissions reduction (against 2005 levels) by 2026, a 40-45 per cent reduction by 2030 and achieving net-zero by 2050. The 2030 target appears in the\u00a0global registry<\/a>\u00a0of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) as Canada\u2019s pledge under Article 4(2) of the Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n

Several issues can be identified with the\u00a0current pledge<\/a>\u00a0which should be remedied in the 2035 target.<\/p>\n

One of the main issues is Canada\u2019s approach to \u201cfair shares.\u201d The Paris Agreement leaves it open to states to define ambition, fairness and equity in their own terms. However, there is a\u00a0growing consensus<\/a>\u00a0that Canada\u2019s efforts are \u201chighly insufficient.\u201d\u00a0One study of a range of NDCs (including Canada\u2019s)<\/a>\u00a0points out that defining fair shares in comparison with current emissions, or business-as-usual projections, is contrary to international environmental law as such a framework \u201cgrandfathers\u201d in existing emissions \u2014 unfortunately,\u00a0Canada\u2019s NDCs does exactly this<\/a>.<\/p>\n

By contrast, systems and\u00a0calculators<\/a>\u00a0do exist which allow modelling fair shares based on different assumptions about historical responsibilities and current capacity to act. Canada should explain its approach going forward, since equity is a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"Smoke
Smoke rises from the stacks of a power facility near Toronto. Care must be taken both in Canada, and around the world, to ensure that existing emissions are not grandfathered into net-zero plans.\u00a0THE CANADIAN PRESS\/Frank Gunn<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Another major issue with the 2030 target is Canada\u2019s stance on emissions trading, since the current NDC \u201crecognizes that internationally transferred mitigation outcomes could complement domestic efforts.\u201d This statement makes it impossible to understand what part of the target will be achieved through systems transformation at home and what part will be compensated by emissions trading. This ambiguity requires urgent clarity in the 2035 target.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, while the Paris Agreement allows emissions trading,\u00a0experts warn that delaying true decarbonization may also reduce innovation and limit future options<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A third and last issue is Canada\u2019s approach to Indigenous-led climate policy. A full section of the 2030 target is dedicated to Indigenous climate leadership and includes references to Indigenous rights and a nation-to-nation relationship. However,\u00a0scholars<\/a>\u00a0have observed on the part of the federal government a \u201cclear unwillingness to recognize Indigenous jurisdiction\u201d in the implementation of climate policy in Canada. This unwillingness limits Indigenous\u00a0decision-making powers<\/a>\u00a0over land and resources.<\/p>\n

\n

Read more:\u00a0Canada\u2019s Nature Agreement underscores the need for true reconciliation with Indigenous nations<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\n

This should be remedied, especially since \u201cNature is generally declining less rapidly in indigenous peoples\u2019 land than in other lands<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Keeping on task<\/h2>\n

Ultimately, one of the key factors in reaching the 2035 target is\u00a0whether the Net-Zero Act delivers strong accountability<\/a>. Indeed, both the\u00a0Canadian Climate Institute<\/a>\u00a0and the\u00a0Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development<\/a>\u00a0have raised alarming concerns regarding the progress Canada has made towards the 2035 target \u2014 stronger accountability is essential to meet these goals.<\/p>\n

In response to these many challenges, we must resist the temptation to go for a weak 2035 target and use the current process to think creatively about how it can be transformational and fair at the same time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Conversation on March 21, 2024. By Christopher Campbell-Durufl\u00e9 The Government of Canada is in the midst of a\u00a0public engagement on the 2035 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target. The timeline [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":62655,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[13,109,80,14,266,812],"class_list":{"0":"post-62654","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-canada","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-environment","11":"tag-featured","12":"tag-government","13":"tag-regulations"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nemissions - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Government of Canada is in the midst of a\u00a0public engagement on the 2035 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/the-stakes-could-not-be-higher-as-canada-sets-its-2035-emissions-target\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"emissions - 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