{"id":62338,"date":"2024-03-04T13:13:28","date_gmt":"2024-03-04T21:13:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=62338"},"modified":"2024-03-04T13:13:28","modified_gmt":"2024-03-04T21:13:28","slug":"danielle-smith-misleading-albertans-with-wind-and-solar-lies-soft-moratorium","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/markham-on-energy\/danielle-smith-misleading-albertans-with-wind-and-solar-lies-soft-moratorium\/","title":{"rendered":"Danielle Smith misleading Albertans with wind and solar lies, soft moratorium"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Albertans deserve truth about electricity system options<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Danielle Smith is wrong about renewable energy. Even worse, she&#8217;s not honest with Albertans about wind and solar.\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The best evidence for that argument comes from the non-profit that manages the Alberta power grid. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Two years ago, the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/aeso.ca\/future-of-electricity\/net-zero-emissions-pathways\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">modelled<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> three pathways for the provincial electricity system to achieve net-zero emissions by 2035. The timelines are tight, the report concluded, but they are doable and affordable, contrary to Smith&#8217;s claims.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Premier never publicly refers to AESO\u2019s report, presumably because the province\u2019s electricity system operator explains how federal clean electricity goals can be met at a reasonable cost, something she insists is technically impossible and horrendously expensive. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Smith <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-08-14\/alberta-premier-smith-vows-to-never-comply-with-trudeau-s-clean-electricity-plan?sref=2P50Jwox\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">claimed<\/a>, for example, that net-zero by 2035 would cost as much as $400 billion. AESO pegs the bill at $44 billion to $52 billion, with 90 per cent of the cost borne by the private sector. Watch my interview (below) with Miranda Keating-Erickson, AESO&#8217;s VP markets, about the report.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/olOYvQ5aHK8?si=X6u65S3s_LNOe7jv\" width=\"300\" height=\"166\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The former talk radio host talks out of both sides of her mouth on this issue. On Twitter\/X and in public comments, she <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/commodities\/energy\/renewables\/cold-weather-strains-albertas-electricity-grid-jan-15\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">bashes<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> wind and solar as unreliable and expensive. Then last week she <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/ff655ce1369c4e28\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">tried to sell<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> the UCP government\u2019s new rules for renewables development as a \u201cclear and responsible path forward for renewable project development.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Legal scholars disagreed. In an <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ablawg.ca\/2024\/03\/01\/premier-smith-converts-a-legal-pause-on-renewable-energy-projects-into-a-de-facto-moratorium-of-uncertain-duration\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ABLAWG post<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, Nigel Bankes and Martin Olszynski called Alberta\u2019s new policies \u201can effective and continuing de facto pause or moratorium\u201d on wind and solar. Simon Dyer of Pembina Institute has <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SimonJDyer\/status\/1762905814749053122\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">estimated<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that those policies will bar 76 per cent of the province\u2019s land from hosting renewables.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The AESO report is important because it presents Albertans with choices about how the provincial grid could or should change in the face of stricter federal climate policies and higher demand created by electrification of transportation (e.g. electric vehicles) and buildings (e.g. heat pumps).<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>AESO\u2019s scenarios<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In two of AESO\u2019s three net-zero scenarios, wind and solar play a prominent role.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe Dispatchable Dominant Scenario explores a world where very low or zero-carbon-emissions thermal units form the bulk of supply,\u201d AESO\u2019s report said. \u201cThe scenario is driven by the capital turnover of most unabated thermal assets into abated assets by the way of carbon capture technologies [CCS].\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This scenario is basically the status quo with 90 per cent (theoretically, at least) of greenhouse gas emissions captured and stored underground. `<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe First-Mover Advantage Scenario represents a future net-zero outcome that continues the development of significant volumes of wind and solar generation,\u201d according to AESO. \u201dThis scenario also relies on combined-cycle generation [gas] with CCS and hydrogen-fired simple-cycle generation to supply energy at times when renewables generation may be insufficient or unavailable\u2026\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This middle-ground scenario is based upon assumptions that may not hold up. For example, solar will not be installed after 2030, but wind will, because the very low cost of solar will disincentivize investment. Furthermore, considerable Li-ion storage is assumed, but not other battery chemistries, storage technologies (e.g. compressed air), or grid-enhancing technologies.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe Renewables and Storage Rush Scenario illustrates the continued development of significant amounts of intermittent wind and solar generation resources by 2035 with limited new low-emitting thermal generation,\u201d AESO says. Energy storage plays an even greater role in this scenario because of the high adoption of renewables.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">AESO modellers also considered longer-term technologies (hydroelectric, transmission inter-ties with other provinces, small modular nuclear reactors), but decided not to include them in the scenarios because they can\u2019t be implemented soon enough to make a difference.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">An interesting question for a future column is the extent to which AESO and the utilities have implemented new power electronics and digital control control technologies to modernize the grid. At 14 per cent renewables generation, Alberta should already be modernizing the grid to boost adoption of low-cost wind and solar while preparing for the two or three times more consumption required by electrification of the provincial economy by 2050 (watch interview with economist Chris Bataille below).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Alberta is behind on grid modernization, and there is some evidence that it is, then this one area where additional study could influence which electricity scenario citizens might favour.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/cTZKJHif-ak?si=0P_elDU5fbgueb4H\" width=\"300\" height=\"166\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><b>Change vs. stability<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At its simplest, the renewables vs. gas debate is about change.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wind and solar are not drop-in replacements &#8211; like coal, gas, hydro, or nuclear are &#8211; for dispatchable generation. Once more than a small percentage (Phases 1 and 2 in the IEA graphic) of wind and solar are operating, a power grid must be re-engineered (Phases 3 to 6) to accommodate the variability of renewables. This might include storage (most commonly batteries), market reform, inter-ties with other grids, demand response, and a host of other new technologies that are transforming the power sector around the world.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_62349\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-62349\" style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-62349\" src=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/6-phases-renewables-IEA-e1709577045762.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"318\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-62349\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Source: International Energy Agency PowerPoint presentation.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Gerhard Salge, chief technology officer for Hitachi Energy, described how power grids can be re-engineered to accommodate changes in electricity generation described by the IEA&#8217;s graphic.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cCustomers must have a stable, reliable, and resilient power system,\u201d Salge said. \u201cThat means\u2026we need to substitute other new technologies, and those technologies are power electronics and digital control.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/share.transistor.fm\/e\/85c35a23\" width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless=\"\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Integrating these new technologies is often called \u201cmodernizing.\u201d The Americans are busy upgrading their older grid, in part to lower emissions and also because they realize that competing against China and other clean energy players means electrifying the national economy. Over time, of course, but low-carbon electricity is increasingly seen as a competitive advantage as the global energy transition quickens.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Smith and her government see the world quite differently.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">She has said publicly that Alberta \u201cis a gas province\u201d and gas will dominate power generation for decades to come. Generation may be decarbonized using carbon capture and storage or hydrogen, but the grid will be essentially the same.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I argued in a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/markham-on-energy\/danielle-smiths-alberta-the-land-of-energy-dinosaurs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">recent column<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that the UCP is the party of energy incumbents and that Smith is their champion. Incumbents like electric utilities, which are notorious for their cautious engineering culture, don\u2019t like change. Especially change that they don\u2019t control. From this point of view, the Alberta government is trying to shield electricity incumbents from disruptive change like that described by Salge and other experts (see below) I have interviewed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/share.transistor.fm\/e\/440ce684\" width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless=\"\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><b>Where to from here?<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We have a pretty good idea of what Smith and the UCP envision for Alberta\u2019s electricity grid. But what do Albertans want? Probably what they have always wanted: lights that go on when they flip a switch and affordable power bills.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What they are getting from their provincial government is a dishonest campaign to smear what are now the cheapest sources of generating electricity combined with dishonesty about the regulatory uncertainty created by new rules for renewables development.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What they need is an evidence-based public discussion about the AESO\u2019s three scenarios.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Do Albertans prefer decarbonizing the status quo, a mix of gas with carbon capture and significant renewable energy, or a grid where wind and solar dominate? Are there other options not considered by AESO (advanced geothermal, for example)? <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Has work to modernize the grid for intermittent generation even begun? If not, that would be a place to start improvements.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What is glaringly obvious after the 7-month moratorium and last Thursday\u2019s announcement is that the current state of affairs isn&#8217;t serving the interests of Albertans. Whose interests are they serving?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is Smith&#8217;s job is to answer that question. Some honesty while doing so would be appreciated.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>Albertans deserve truth about electricity system options Danielle Smith is wrong about renewable energy. Even worse, she&#8217;s not honest with Albertans about wind and solar.\u00a0The best evidence for that argument comes from the non-profit that <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/markham-on-energy\/danielle-smith-misleading-albertans-with-wind-and-solar-lies-soft-moratorium\/\" title=\"Danielle Smith misleading Albertans with wind and solar lies, soft moratorium\">[Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":62350,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-62338","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markham-on-energy"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Danielle Smith misleading Albertans with wind and solar lies, soft moratorium - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy&#039;s Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/markham-on-energy\/danielle-smith-misleading-albertans-with-wind-and-solar-lies-soft-moratorium\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Danielle Smith misleading Albertans with wind and solar lies, soft moratorium - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy&#039;s Future\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Albertans deserve truth about electricity system options Danielle Smith is wrong about renewable energy. Even worse, she&#8217;s not honest with Albertans about wind and solar.\u00a0The best evidence for that argument comes from the non-profit that [Read more]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/markham-on-energy\/danielle-smith-misleading-albertans-with-wind-and-solar-lies-soft-moratorium\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Thoughtful Journalism About Energy&#039;s Future\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/energimedia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-03-04T21:13:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/423686805_946923653776844_8340845798521894890_n.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"360\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Markham Hislop\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@EnergiMedia\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@EnergiMedia\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Markham Hislop\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/markham-on-energy\\\/danielle-smith-misleading-albertans-with-wind-and-solar-lies-soft-moratorium\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/markham-on-energy\\\/danielle-smith-misleading-albertans-with-wind-and-solar-lies-soft-moratorium\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Markham Hislop\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/49013226cc9e12f42994b7e2d709e696\"},\"headline\":\"Danielle Smith misleading Albertans with wind and solar lies, soft moratorium\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-03-04T21:13:28+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/markham-on-energy\\\/danielle-smith-misleading-albertans-with-wind-and-solar-lies-soft-moratorium\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1262,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/markham-on-energy\\\/danielle-smith-misleading-albertans-with-wind-and-solar-lies-soft-moratorium\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/03\\\/423686805_946923653776844_8340845798521894890_n.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Markham on Energy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/markham-on-energy\\\/danielle-smith-misleading-albertans-with-wind-and-solar-lies-soft-moratorium\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/markham-on-energy\\\/danielle-smith-misleading-albertans-with-wind-and-solar-lies-soft-moratorium\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/energi.media\\\/markham-on-energy\\\/danielle-smith-misleading-albertans-with-wind-and-solar-lies-soft-moratorium\\\/\",\"name\":\"Danielle Smith misleading Albertans with wind and solar lies, soft moratorium - 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