{"id":61891,"date":"2024-01-30T10:46:45","date_gmt":"2024-01-30T18:46:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=61891"},"modified":"2024-01-30T10:46:45","modified_gmt":"2024-01-30T18:46:45","slug":"climate-change-has-killed-4-million-people-since-2000-and-thats-an-underestimate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/climate-change-has-killed-4-million-people-since-2000-and-thats-an-underestimate\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate change has killed 4 million people since 2000 \u2014 and that\u2019s an underestimate"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by Grist<\/a> on Jan. 30, 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Zoya Teirstein<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

In the early 2000s, as climate denialism was infecting political institutions around the world like a malevolent plague, an Australian epidemiologist named Anthony McMichael took on a peculiar and morbid scientific question: How many people were being killed by climate change? McMichael\u2019s research team tallied up how many lives had been lost to diarrheal disease, malnutrition, malaria, cardiovascular disease (a proxy for heat-related illness), and flooding, worldwide, in the year 2000. The researchers then used computer modelling to parse out the percentage of those deaths that were attributable to climate change. Climate change, they estimated<\/a>, was responsible for 166,000 lives lost that year.<\/p>\n

The world has changed a great deal since. Climate denialism is no longer the world\u2019s de facto climate policy, in large part because the impacts of rising temperatures have become impossible to ignore. The field of climate research has grown apace, and the science behind how climate change affects everything from\u00a0ultra-rare species of frogs<\/a>\u00a0to the\u00a0velocity of baseballs<\/a>\u00a0to the intensity of\u00a0heatwaves<\/a>,\u00a0droughts<\/a>,\u00a0floods<\/a>, and\u00a0hurricanes<\/a>\u00a0has become astonishingly precise. But the research assessing how many people are currently being killed by the climate crisis has remained conspicuously stagnant. While a\u00a0small handful<\/a>\u00a0of studies have\u00a0attempted to quantify<\/a>\u00a0the effect of climate change on mortality\u00a0decades into the future<\/a>, the McMichael standard, an ambitious relic of the early 2000s, is still the only estimate of its kind.<\/p>\n

This week, a climate and health researcher published a\u00a0commentary<\/a>\u00a0in the journal Nature Medicine that takes the McMichael standard to its logical conclusion. By the end of this year, Colin Carlson, a global change biologist and assistant professor at Georgetown University, wrote in the commentary provided exclusively to Grist, climate change will have killed roughly 4 million people globally since the turn of the century. That\u2019s more than the population of Los Angeles or Berlin, \u201cmore than every other non-COVID public health emergency the World Health Organization has ever declared combined,\u201d said Carlson, who also runs\u00a0an institute<\/a>\u00a0focused on predicting and preventing pandemics.<\/p>\n

And 4 million lives lost due to climate change, a breathtakingly high number, is still an underestimate \u2014 probably a big one. The McMichael standard doesn\u2019t include deaths linked to climate-driven surges of the many non-malarial diseases spread by mosquitoes, like dengue and West Nile virus. It doesn\u2019t incorporate deaths caused by deadly bacteria, fungal spores, ticks, and other diseases or carriers of disease that are\u00a0shifting in range and breadth as the planet warms<\/a>. It doesn\u2019t examine the impacts of wildfires and\u00a0wildfire smoke<\/a>\u00a0on longevity. It doesn\u2019t look at the mental health consequences of extreme heat and extreme weather and the\u00a0related increase in suicides<\/a>\u00a0that have been documented in recent years. \u201cAt the time we were doing it, we already knew it was conservative,\u201d said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, a coauthor of McMichael\u2019s 2003 study who is now the head of the climate change and health unit at the World Health Organization.<\/p>\n

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Pakistan was lashed by unprecedented monsoon rains in the summer of 2022 that put a third of the country underwater, damaged 2 million homes, and killed more than 1,700 people.\u00a0AAMIR QURESHI\/AFP via Getty Images<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>
The list of potential impacts that would need to be assessed in order to gain a complete picture of the climate death toll is long and, thus far, no researcher has endeavoured to make a full accounting. \u201cClimate change is killing a lot of people, nobody is counting it, and nobody is moving in the direction of counting it,\u201d Carlson said. \u201cIf it were anything but climate change, we would be treating it on very different terms.\u201d\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Wael Al-Delaimy, a multidisciplinary epidemiologist at the University of California, San Diego, agreed that 4 million deaths since 2000 is \u201cdefinitely an underestimate.\u201d A significant lack of mortality data in low- and middle-income countries is one of the biggest obstacles standing in the way of a proper update to the McMichael standard. \u201cThe main challenge is mortality is not well documented and measured across the globe, and low- and middle-income countries suffer the most because they are not prepared, and there are no real epidemiological studies trying to link it to climate change,\u201d Al-Delaimy said.<\/p>\n

The paucity of epidemiological data limits the methods researchers use to calculate climate-linked mortality in the first place.<\/p>\n

Researchers who want to investigate how many deaths from a particular disaster are due to climate change typically employ a method called attribution science. To understand the effect climate change has on mortality, scientists will use statistical methods and computer models to determine how climate change has influenced the drivers of a discrete event, such as a heatwave. Then, they\u2019ll quantify the portion of heat-related deaths that can be attributed to climate change-related factors, using observed mortality data. As Al-Delaimy noted, mortality data isn\u2019t always available. Attribution science, in the context of climate-related mortality, is a tool that\u2019s useful, specialized, and \u2014 in the view of experts like Carlson \u2014 limited by patchy data.<\/p>\n

McMichael did not rely on attribution science to reach his conclusions, partly because the technique was still in its infancy when he was conducting his mortality work. Instead, he used existing climate models to approximate how climate change was affecting specific illnesses on a global scale. His research team figured out how diarrheal disease, malnutrition, and the other factors they chose to include were influenced by warming \u2014 for example, they estimated a 5 percent increase in cases of diarrhea per every degree Celsius change in temperature \u2014 and then based their calculations on those findings. \u201cTo be honest, nobody had been arrogant enough to ask that question before \u2014 what is the total burden of disease from climate change? \u2014 because obviously it\u2019s a very huge and difficult question,\u201d Campbell-Lendrum said.<\/p>\n

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A dengue ward at Shaheed Suhrawardi Medical College in Bangladesh. Official reports say at least 23 people at the ward died because of dengue, but unofficial and media reports point to a higher death rate.\u00a0Md. Rakibul Hasan\/Pacific Press\/LightRocket via Getty Images<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>
Carlson thinks the path forward builds on this work. Success hinges on predictive computer modelling, he said: research that can simulate disease spread and climate conditions and make predictions about how these patterns may change in the future. Predictive modelling doesn\u2019t require researchers to track down mortality data counting every single person who died in a particular extreme weather event. The answer to the question of how many people have been killed by climate change, Carlson said, can be answered by developing a predictive modelling-based protocol for how researchers measure climate change-related deaths. He aims to gather the world\u2019s leading climate and health experts together this year to build out exactly such a system. Getting researchers \u201cbaking to the same recipe,\u201d he said, could ultimately produce an updated, more accurate climate mortality estimate.\u00a0\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Developing something resembling a universal climate mortality protocol won\u2019t be simple, but it could accomplish what McMichael set out to do in the 2000s: furnish the public with a rough understanding of the full climate death toll, not 50 years into the future, but as it is happening right now. \u201cIf you don\u2019t know how big the challenge is, you can justify not investing in the challenge,\u201d said Kristie L. Ebi, a climate and health researcher at the University of Washington. Mortality data drives policy, and more policy is needed to protect the public from what\u2019s coming \u2014 and what\u2019s already here.<\/p>\n

In the summer of 2022 \u2014 a cooler summer than the summer of 2023, which is\u00a0on track<\/a>\u00a0to be eclipsed by the summer of 2024 \u2014 extreme heat in Europe caused\u00a0over 60,000 deaths<\/a>\u00a0between the end of May and the beginning of September. Since early 2023, clouds of mosquitoes, spurred by unusual flooding and an intensifying monsoon season, have\u00a0spread dengue fever across huge swaths of the world<\/a>, infecting nearly 5 million people and causing more than 5,000 deaths. Last year\u2019s extreme weather events killed\u00a0492 people in the U.S.<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 one of the countries that is best-equipped to deal with the fallout from extreme weather.<\/p>\n

A deadly trend is underway. As McMichael put it in an open letter published just weeks before he died in 2014, \u201cour mismanagement of the world\u2019s climate and environment is weakening the foundations of health and longevity.\u201d And yet, a very small proportion of the 4 million deaths caused by climate change so far, Carlson wrote in his commentary, \u201cwill have been recognized by the victims\u2019 families, or acknowledged by national governments, as the consequence of climate change.\u201d What would happen if people knew the true scope of the risk at hand? Carlson aims to find out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by Grist on Jan. 30, 2024. By Zoya Teirstein In the early 2000s, as climate denialism was infecting political institutions around the world like a malevolent plague, an Australian epidemiologist named [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":61892,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[80,14,2593,793,901],"class_list":{"0":"post-61891","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-environment","9":"tag-featured","10":"tag-mortality","11":"tag-pollution","12":"tag-science"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nclimate change - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Attribution science is often used by researchers wanting to investigate how many deaths from a particular disaster are due to climate change.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/climate-change-has-killed-4-million-people-since-2000-and-thats-an-underestimate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"climate change - 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