{"id":61602,"date":"2024-01-06T10:23:56","date_gmt":"2024-01-06T18:23:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=61602"},"modified":"2024-01-06T10:23:56","modified_gmt":"2024-01-06T18:23:56","slug":"2024-preview-ieas-right-opecs-wrong-alberta-allied-with-oil-cartel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/markham-on-energy\/2024-preview-ieas-right-opecs-wrong-alberta-allied-with-oil-cartel\/","title":{"rendered":"2024 Preview: IEA&#8217;s right, OPEC&#8217;s wrong, Alberta allied with oil cartel"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>IEA&#8217;s modelling of energy future is more likely because of China<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Will the energy transition be fast, with fossil fuels demand peaking in 2030 and quickly declining, as the International Energy Agency thinks? Or will it be slow, with oil demand peaking in 2045, then falling slowly over decades, as OPEC predicts? Why does peak demand even matter?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s start with why it matters. Fifteen years difference between peak demand estimates may not seem like much, but in reality the IEA and OPEC think of the energy future very differently.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_61605\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-61605\" style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-61605\" src=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/coal-oil-gas-demand-IEA-scenarios-e1704562222514.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"283\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-61605\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Source: World Energy Outlook 2023, IEA.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The IEA\u2019s future is electrified: electric transportation, electric heating and cooling, electric industrial processes, and a power sector dominated by low-cost renewable energy (mostly solar), hydro, nuclear, and geothermal. Low-carbon fuels like hydrogen are used where electricity doesn\u2019t work, but clean power is used to produce them. Hydrocarbons are used mostly as feedstock for materials. What little combustion remains is abated with carbon capture and storage (CCS).<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe transition to clean energy is happening worldwide, and it\u2019s unstoppable,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/new-iea-outlook-with-renewable-energy-unstoppable-fossil-fuels-will-peak-by-2030\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">says<\/a> executive director Fatih Birol. \u201cIt\u2019s not a question of \u2018if\u2019, it\u2019s just a matter of \u2018how soon\u2019 \u2014 and the sooner the better for all of us.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This isn\u2019t quite the mid-century future modelled in the IEA\u2019s flagship World Energy Outlook or its many technical reports, but it is the logical extension of that work. That world could probably arrive by the end of the 21st century, perhaps sooner if international efforts to accelerate climate policy succeed. And it is a vision of the global energy system that might have a fighting chance of combatting climate change.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">OPEC imagines a very different future. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It is an extremely risky and impractical narrative to dismiss fossil fuels, or to suggest that they are at the beginning of their end,&#8221; OPEC Secretary General, HE Haitham Al Ghais <a href=\"https:\/\/www.opec.org\/opec_web\/en\/press_room\/7217.htm\">said<\/a>, reacting to Birol&#8217;s comments. \u201cSuch narratives only set the global energy system up to fail spectacularly. It would lead to energy chaos on a potentially unprecedented scale, with dire consequences for economies and billions of people across the world.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even its most aggressive scenario sees oil consumption only a few million barrels per day less than current levels of 102 million barrels per day by mid-century. Rich economies electrify, but emerging economies stick with oil and gas, essentially emulating the development path of high-income countries. Hydrocarbon-rich Africa, the poorest continent with the highest birth rate, leads this trend, in part because it is blessed with abundant oil and gas resources.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_61607\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-61607\" style=\"width: 585px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-61607\" src=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-03-at-10.24.33\u202fam.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"585\" height=\"374\" srcset=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-03-at-10.24.33\u202fam.png 585w, https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-03-at-10.24.33\u202fam-300x192.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 585px) 100vw, 585px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-61607\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Source: World Oil Outlook 2045, OPEC.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The World Oil Outlook 2045, OPEC\u2019s energy transition modelling exercise, doesn\u2019t deny climate change or the need to reduce emissions. At least, not explicitly. The focus is instead on reducing emissions from oil and gas extraction (principally with CCS), or Scope 1 and 2 emissions, as they are called. But that accounts for only 20 per cent of emissions. The remaining 80 per cent, Scope 3, occur when oil or gas is combusted. While burning natural gas may create half the emissions of coal, its Scope 3 emissions are only a bit less than burning petroleum-based fuels like gasoline, diesel, and kerosene for aviation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and her UCP government <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/energi-notes\/world-petroleum-congress-fighting-to-redefine-energy-transition-on-its-terms\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">have adopted the OPEC view of the energy future<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> lock, stock, and barrel. As have Canada\u2019s oil and gas companies, almost all of which are headquartered in Alberta. As I argued in this <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/markham-on-energy\/danielle-smith-has-an-oil-and-gas-marketing-plan-not-a-climate-plan\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">column<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, Smith and the oil CEOs see the energy transition as a marketing opportunity, not an existential threat, which is the logical consequence of the IEA&#8217;s worldview.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Smith, to her credit, acknowledges that if oil and gas demand drops, Alberta can \u201cmake stuff\u201d with its hydrocarbons instead of using them as feedstocks for refineries and power plants. Energi Media has argued for years that the future of the Alberta oil and gas industry is materials, not fuels. Alberta is already a leader in this type of research, thanks to Alberta Innovates, a provincial agency.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The problem with Smith\u2019s strategy is that building new industries from scratch takes decades, not years. In OPEC\u2019s future energy system, Alberta has plenty of time. In the IEA\u2019s, it does not.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is why the IEA vs. OPEC debate is so important.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Energi Media recently published a <a href=\"https:\/\/typefully.com\/politicalham\/6Yz313J\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">long thread comparing the IEA and OPEC<\/a> view of the energy future. After reviewing numerous reports and interviewing hundreds of experts about the energy transition over the past 10 years, the conclusion isn\u2019t even close: the IEA\u2019s modelling is far more plausible than OPEC\u2019s.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are a number of faulty assumptions in the OPEC report, but the biggest by far is underestimating China.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Just like the United States drove global industrialization and economic growth after World War II, so China will dominate the energy transition in the 21st century.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_61604\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-61604\" style=\"width: 422px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-61604\" src=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/China-solar-price-Wood-Mac-14dec23.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"422\" height=\"263\" srcset=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/China-solar-price-Wood-Mac-14dec23.png 665w, https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/China-solar-price-Wood-Mac-14dec23-300x187.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 422px) 100vw, 422px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-61604\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Source: Wood Mackenzie.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">China already has an enormous lead. It manufactures 70 per cent to 80 per cent of the core clean energy technologies (wind, solar, batteries, electric vehicles, heat pumps, hydrogen electrolyzers). Its supply chains have a stranglehold on the supply of required minerals and the intermediate refining and processing capacity. Despite burning more coal than any other country, a fixation for those who downplay China\u2019s role in the energy transition, the country has massively subsidized the adoption of clean energy for 20 years and plans to do even more in the near to medium-term.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The odds of the United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea catching China are almost zero. In fact, according to IEA projections, they will do well just to keep pace over the next decade, despite spending trillions of public money to build their own clean energy industries, supply chains, and infrastructure.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">American automakers, for example, made bold predictions about their pivot to EV manufacturing, but now watch helplessly as their plans flounder amid software and manufacturing problems. At the same time, Chinese EV companies are setting sales records and beginning to export. In 2023, China\u2019s BYD sold more EVs than Tesla, unthinkable only a few years ago.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The IEA\u2019s energy future is more likely because of China.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_61609\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-61609\" style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-61609\" src=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-06-at-10.14.53\u202fam-e1704564942411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"342\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-61609\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Source. World Energy Outlook 2023, IEA.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Smith and the CEOs have bet on the wrong horse. The consequences of that poor judgment won\u2019t be immediately apparent. In fact, the rest of this decade will probably feel like a boom in Alberta. Incumbent industries are often disrupted at the height of their profitability. Nibbling at the edges of the energy transition, such as trying to build a provincial blue hydrogen sector based on natural gas as a feedstock, will only fool Alberta\u2019s political and business leaders into thinking that they are prepared for wrenching change.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">They are not.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">My fondest wish for 2024 is that the scales fall from the eyes of the province\u2019s leaders, that they finally understand the likely future of the global energy system and begin to take appropriate action. My greatest fear is that those leaders are so wed to the status quo that it\u2019s already too late.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_61613\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-61613\" style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-61613\" src=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Future-of-global-energy-1-e1704565266997.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"348\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-61613\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Premier Smith often says that all reputable forecasters expect decades of oil and gas expansion. This graphic from oil giant BP suggests otherwise.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>IEA&#8217;s modelling of energy future is more likely because of China Will the energy transition be fast, with fossil fuels demand peaking in 2030 and quickly declining, as the International Energy Agency thinks? Or will <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/markham-on-energy\/2024-preview-ieas-right-opecs-wrong-alberta-allied-with-oil-cartel\/\" title=\"2024 Preview: IEA&#8217;s right, OPEC&#8217;s wrong, Alberta allied with oil cartel\">[Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":61610,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-61602","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markham-on-energy"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>2024 Preview: IEA&#039;s right, OPEC&#039;s wrong, Alberta allied with oil cartel - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy&#039;s Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/markham-on-energy\/2024-preview-ieas-right-opecs-wrong-alberta-allied-with-oil-cartel\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2024 Preview: IEA&#039;s right, OPEC&#039;s wrong, Alberta allied with oil cartel - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy&#039;s Future\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"IEA&#8217;s modelling of energy future is more likely because of China Will the energy transition be fast, with fossil fuels demand peaking in 2030 and quickly declining, as the International Energy Agency thinks? 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