{"id":61440,"date":"2023-12-18T10:06:13","date_gmt":"2023-12-18T18:06:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=61440"},"modified":"2023-12-18T10:06:13","modified_gmt":"2023-12-18T18:06:13","slug":"if-a-tree-burns-in-canadas-unmanaged-forest-does-anyone-count-the-carbon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/if-a-tree-burns-in-canadas-unmanaged-forest-does-anyone-count-the-carbon\/","title":{"rendered":"If a tree burns in Canada\u2019s unmanaged forest, does anyone count the carbon?"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Conversation<\/a> on Dec. 17, 2023.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Ryan M. Katz-Rosene<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Earlier this fall,\u00a0a commentary<\/a>\u00a0in the journal\u00a0Nature Communications, Earth & Environment<\/em>\u00a0argued for a change to the implementation of the Paris Agreement\u2019s reporting mechanisms. The authors called for all countries to report carbon emissions and removals taking place across their\u00a0entire<\/em>\u00a0territories, not just\u00a0within so-called \u201cmanaged\u201d lands<\/a>\u00a0(as is presently the case).<\/p>\n

However, this poses a challenge here in Canada, as there is\u00a0deep uncertainty about the total carbon flux (balance of emissions and captures) in Canada\u2019s \u201cunmanaged\u201d land<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I echo calls for the Government of Canada to scale up and improve its greenhouse gas (GHG) monitoring\u00a0and modelling across Canada\u2019s entire<\/em> territory<\/a>, and to report these findings in a much more open and transparent manner as part of its annual National GHG Inventory.<\/p>\n

Differentiating between managed and unmanaged land<\/h2>\n

Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, member countries are expected to\u00a0report GHG emissions and removals<\/a>\u00a0taking place as a result of human activities. However, within the LULUCF (or Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry) sector, it is\u00a0not always clear what constitutes an anthropogenic<\/em> influence<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0guidance provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)<\/a>\u00a0has been to delineate between \u201cmanaged\u201d and \u201cunmanaged\u201d lands, and to focus GHG reporting on the former since these are areas under substantive human influence. While a number of countries make use of this distinction, the portion of land in Canada that is unmanaged is truly significant \u2014\u00a0equivalent to about 69 per cent of the country\u2019s total land area<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s National GHG Inventory<\/a>\u00a0does contain information about the carbon flux within managed lands, or lands comprised mostly of managed forest. There is currently around 232 million hectares of managed forest in Canada, however, this leaves roughly 715 million hectares of land in Canada which is technically unmanaged \u2014 all of which are unaccounted for in the National GHG Inventory.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s more, while Canada does track emissions from natural disturbances (such as in a forest fire) occurring in managed areas, it does not actually report these disturbances to the UN as part of its LULUCF emissions,\u00a0based on the claim that these are not anthropogenic<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n

Read more:\u00a0Qu\u00e9bec’s hardwood trees could move north. Here’s how that could affect the boreal forest landscape<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\n

While there is a logic to separating these out, there is a substantial difference to Canada\u2019s total LULUCF emissions, depending on whether or not they are included. For instance, if natural disturbances are included in the tally, Canada\u2019s managed land is typically a net\u00a0source<\/em>\u00a0of carbon, while if they are not included, Canada\u2019s managed land is\u00a0typically a net carbon sink<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The underlying problem, however, is the lack of clear and transparent information about GHG emissions and removals in Canada\u2019s unmanaged lands.<\/p>\n

Estimates vary widely<\/h2>\n

Earlier this summer, during Canada\u2019s\u00a0unprecedented wildfire season<\/a>, I asked the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Canada (NRCAN) for historical information about the net Carbon flux in unmanaged lands. I was surprised to learn that NRCAN does not yet have this data.<\/p>\n

What NRCAN does have is a\u00a0very robust carbon budget modelling tool<\/a>, and thanks to this, some preliminary (unverified) estimates of wildfire emissions in unmanaged forests.<\/p>\n

Wildfire emissions estimates for unmanaged forests are indeed a step in the right direction (as wildfires account for the bulk of emissions from natural disturbances), but there still remains a majority of unmanaged land which is not forested \u2014 including, for instance,\u00a0vast peatlands which are also subject to wildfires<\/a>.<\/p>\n

No GHG emissions of any type occurring in unmanaged lands are currently being tracked or reported within the National GHG Inventory process.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"Smoke
A peat bog fire burns in Baie-Ste-Anne, N.B.\u00a0THE CANADIAN PRESS\/Diane Doiron<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

There have been various efforts to quantify these emissions, yet estimates vary considerably, with some data sets limited to forest lands, and others looking at the full national territory.<\/p>\n

One recent estimate<\/a>\u00a0used 16 different \u201cDynamic Global Vegetation Models,\u201d and found that over the 20-year period from 2000-2020 unmanaged forests sequestered on average about 189 Megaton CO2 per year.<\/p>\n

However, the\u00a0Global Carbon Project\u2019s estimates of \u201catmospheric inversions\u201d<\/a>\u00a0suggests there may be orders of magnitude more carbon removal in Canada\u2019s unmanaged land.<\/p>\n

The size of the discrepancy between these estimates is puzzling. While one obvious explanation comes down to the former model using intact forests as a proxy for unmanaged land, and the latter model including all of Canada\u2019s unmanaged land area,\u00a0scientists believe there may be more to this discrepancy<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A need for further research and better reporting<\/h2>\n

It is unfortunate that Canada has no publicly stated estimate of the country\u2019s total carbon flux. This is important information to help track whether Canada\u2019s landmass is sequestering enough CO2 to offset natural disturbances, or whether the latter are outweighing the former.<\/p>\n

\n

Read more:\u00a0Carbon removal is needed to achieve net zero but has its own climate risks<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\n

It is essential that the Government of Canada enhance its\u00a0current efforts in land-based carbon flux analysis<\/a>, and that such data and analysis is reported to the public in a more clear and transparent way.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by The Conversation on Dec. 17, 2023. By Ryan M. Katz-Rosene Earlier this fall,\u00a0a commentary\u00a0in the journal\u00a0Nature Communications, Earth & Environment\u00a0argued for a change to the implementation of the Paris Agreement\u2019s [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":61441,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[13,109,80,14,2036],"class_list":{"0":"post-61440","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-canada","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-environment","11":"tag-featured","12":"tag-forest-fires"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\ncarbon - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Here in Canada, as there is\u00a0deep uncertainty about the total carbon flux (balance of emissions and captures) in Canada\u2019s \u201cunmanaged\u201d land.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/if-a-tree-burns-in-canadas-unmanaged-forest-does-anyone-count-the-carbon\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"carbon - 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