{"id":60767,"date":"2023-11-05T12:34:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-05T20:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=60767"},"modified":"2023-11-05T12:44:54","modified_gmt":"2023-11-05T20:44:54","slug":"canada-oblivious-chinas-lead-clean-energy-arms-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/energi-notes\/canada-oblivious-chinas-lead-clean-energy-arms-race\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadians oblivious to China&#8217;s lead in clean energy arms race"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><strong>Think bigger, Canada. Industrial revolutions don\u2019t come along that often<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Every year, I interview 400 to 500 energy experts, half of them from the United States, Europe, and Asia. An observation gleaned from those conversations: most Canadians have no idea how rapidly the global energy transition has accelerated since 2020. The \u201cslow transition\u201d camp, which includes Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and many energy executives, also seems to have missed the rise of China as the international clean energy hegemon. This matters because oil and gas, Canada\u2019s largest export by far, is about to be steamrolled by the electrification of everything.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_60774\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-60774\" style=\"width: 496px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-60774\" src=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-05-at-9.45.30-AM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"496\" height=\"234\" srcset=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-05-at-9.45.30-AM.png 824w, https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-05-at-9.45.30-AM-300x142.png 300w, https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-05-at-9.45.30-AM-768x363.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 496px) 100vw, 496px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-60774\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Global total energy demand by fuel and scenario, 2010-2050. Source: World Energy Outlook 2023, IEA. STEPS: existing policies. APS: announced policies. NZE: net-zero.\u00a0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Not next week or next year, but a decade from now, give or take (see the International Energy Agency\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/news\/the-energy-world-is-set-to-change-significantly-by-2030-based-on-today-s-policy-settings-alone\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">forecast<\/a> of peak fossil fuel demand by 2030 or sooner). That\u2019s not much time to build new industries to use Canada\u2019s hydrocarbons. Or to take advantage of the many opportunities created by the massive investment now taking place in clean energy industries like battery plants.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The slow transition folks are linear growth thinkers in an exponential growth world, as I explained in this <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/energi-notes\/linear-growth-mindset-will-doom-alberta-oil-and-gas\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">column<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. And the leader of that growth will be China. \u201cChina is now the undisputable global leader of renewable energy expansion worldwide,\u201d Christian Zinglersen, the International Energy Agency\u2019s former head of its clean energy ministerial secretariat, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/commentaries\/a-new-era-of-shared-clean-energy-leadership-begins-in-china\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">wrote<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> almost five years ago, in 2019. China has only increased its lead in the years since.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A short list of clean energy manufacturing sectors dominated by China:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Solar panels &#8211; 80%<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/asia.nikkei.com\/Business\/Energy\/Chinese-manufacturers-dominate-wind-power-taking-60-of-global-market#:~:text=TOKYO%20%2D%2D%20China%20is%20emerging,installed%20capacity%20worldwide%20in%202022.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wind turbines<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; 60%<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Batteries &#8211; 75%<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.china-briefing.com\/news\/chinas-electric-vehicle-supply-chain-and-its-future-prospects\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Battery supply chain<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; 77%<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Electric_vehicle_industry_in_China#:~:text=The%20electric%20vehicle%20industry%20in,around%20500%2C000%20exports%20in%202021.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Electric vehicles<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; 57%<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/commentaries\/global-heat-pump-sales-continue-double-digit-growth#:~:text=Around%2040%25%20of%20heat%20pumps,its%20exports%20going%20to%20Europe.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Heat pumps<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; 40%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s not forget that China already has massive supply chains for electronics manufacturing, which are key to most clean energy technologies. (listen to my Energi Talks podcast interview below with Morgan Solar CEO Mike Andrade for more on this point)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/share.transistor.fm\/e\/8d1184c5\" width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless=\"\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Perhaps we can forgive Canadians for missing these momentous developments since the Americans did as well. In a remarkable 2022 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commerce.gov\/news\/speeches\/2022\/11\/remarks-us-secretary-commerce-gina-raimondo-us-competitiveness-and-china\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">speech<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that explains the changed US thinking about China, Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said that \u201cCOVID opened our eyes to the long-term risk for both the private sector and the American people of this over-dependence on China and the need to rebuild domestic manufacturing and innovation.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In some ways, US clean energy industrial policy will follow China\u2019s example, with huge subsidies for both manufacturing the equipment and buying it, around $1 trillion between a variety of bills (Inflation Reduction Act, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, CHIPs ACT). <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cToday, history is again moving fast. We as a nation need to keep pace,\u201d says Raimondo.\u00a0 \u201cWith this modern American industrial strategy, we\u2019re embarking on a mission America has not seriously attempted in decades.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The US response to China then had a knock on effect in Europe, already shaken by Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting energy crisis. The EU is a leader in clean energy, but leaders now worry that industries might relocate to the US. They responded with the Green Industrial Plan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;Major economies are rightly stepping up investment in net zero industries,\u201d <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/sustainable-business\/eu-lay-out-green-industry-plan-counter-us-china-subsidies-2023-02-01\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">said<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen. \u201cWe want to be an important part of this net-zero industry that we need globally.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>Who will lead the clean energy industrial revolution?<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">China, the US, and Europe have effectively kicked off a clean energy arms race. Whole sectors of the economy &#8211; think power and transportation &#8211; are being re-engineered in what we used to call \u201cinternet time.\u201d Buildings, thanks to heat pumps, are catching up and a great deal of effort is going into decarbonizing hard to abate industries like steel and agriculture.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If money really does talk, the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/data-and-statistics\/charts\/global-energy-investment-in-clean-energy-and-in-fossil-fuels-2015-2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">fact<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that 2023 global clean energy investment will outstrip fossil fuels by about 75 per cent speaks volumes.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_60772\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-60772\" style=\"width: 400px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-60772\" src=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/global-energy-investment-in-clean-energy-and-in-fossil-fuels-2015-2023-e1699205579540.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"333\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-60772\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Global investment in clean energy and fossil fuels, 2015 to 2023. Source: World Energy Investment 2023, IEA.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Canadians need to listen up.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The time to ditch the navel-gazing parochialism that defines the national energy conversation is already long gone. Too often, the voices Canadians listen to represent the oil and gas incumbents, the players who are desperately trying to protect their (for now highly profitable) status quo because they can\u2019t see an obvious pivot to a low-carbon future. Too often, those voices lead Canadians into bitter debates about issues, like the carbon tax and heating oil, that hardly qualify as a molehill, let alone a mountain.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This column is a plea for Canadians to broaden their thinking, to understand that momentous changes are coming to the global energy system sooner rather than later, and to stop listening to the &#8220;slow transition&#8221; boosters like Premier Smith.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As the fourth largest oil producer in the world and the fifth largest gas producer, change is going to hurt, but it can\u2019t be avoided. And if Canada can adapt quickly enough, there are more than enough opportunities to offset the downside of the energy transition.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Think bigger, Canada. Industrial revolutions don\u2019t come along that often.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>Think bigger, Canada. Industrial revolutions don\u2019t come along that often Every year, I interview 400 to 500 energy experts, half of them from the United States, Europe, and Asia. An observation gleaned from those conversations: <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/energi-notes\/canada-oblivious-chinas-lead-clean-energy-arms-race\/\" title=\"Canadians oblivious to China&#8217;s lead in clean energy arms race\">[Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":60781,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2495],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-60767","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-energi-notes"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Canadians oblivious to China&#039;s lead in clean energy arms race - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy&#039;s Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/energi-notes\/canada-oblivious-chinas-lead-clean-energy-arms-race\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Canadians oblivious to China&#039;s lead in clean energy arms race - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy&#039;s Future\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Think bigger, Canada. Industrial revolutions don\u2019t come along that often Every year, I interview 400 to 500 energy experts, half of them from the United States, Europe, and Asia. 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Industrial revolutions don\u2019t come along that often Every year, I interview 400 to 500 energy experts, half of them from the United States, Europe, and Asia. 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