{"id":60680,"date":"2023-10-25T09:42:22","date_gmt":"2023-10-25T16:42:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=60680"},"modified":"2023-10-25T09:42:22","modified_gmt":"2023-10-25T16:42:22","slug":"new-iea-outlook-with-renewable-energy-unstoppable-fossil-fuels-will-peak-by-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/new-iea-outlook-with-renewable-energy-unstoppable-fossil-fuels-will-peak-by-2030\/","title":{"rendered":"New IEA outlook: With renewable energy \u2018unstoppable,\u2019 fossil fuels will peak by 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>This article was published by <a href=\"https:\/\/grist.org\/energy\/iea-world-outlook-report-renewables-natural-gas\/?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=daily\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Grist<\/a> on Oct. 24, 2023.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>By <a class=\"byline-link\" href=\"https:\/\/grist.org\/author\/naveena-sadasivam\/\">Naveena Sadasivam<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">As the upcoming United Nations climate conference promises\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/grist.org\/international\/loss-and-damage-fund-committee\/\">infighting and deadlock<\/a>, the world\u2019s leading energy forecaster is delivering both good and bad news. The good? The green transition is \u201cunstoppable,\u201d according to the International Energy Agency, or IEA. The bad? Even a shift away from fossil fuels as dramatic as what\u2019s already underway won\u2019t be enough to meet the world\u2019s targets for limiting global warming.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">Overall, the IEA, an advisory body set up in the wake of the 1973 oil price shock, is painting an optimistic picture of the next few decades. The agency estimates that based on current policies, global fossil fuel use will peak by 2030 and then decline continuously afterward \u2014 particularly coal, which is poised to drop about 40 per cent over three decades \u2014 despite continued growth in the world\u2019s population. Offshore wind projects alone will receive three times as much funding as coal and gas power plants, and the number of electric cars on the road will increase tenfold. With these monumental shifts underway, limiting global temperature increase to the 2016 Paris Agreement\u2019s target of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) <a href=\"https:\/\/grist.org\/energy\/iea-report-1-5c-within-reach\/\">remains a possibility<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 though it is far from guaranteed, especially without significant investments in just the next 10 years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">These projections are part of the IEA\u2019s World Energy Outlook, an annual report summarizing the state of the global energy market and its future. The report lays the groundwork for negotiations at COP28, the annual United Nations climate change conference that will be held in Dubai at the end of November.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe transition to clean energy is happening worldwide, and it\u2019s unstoppable,\u201d said Fatih Birol, the agency\u2019s executive director, in a press release. \u201cIt\u2019s not a question of \u2018if\u2019, it\u2019s just a matter of \u2018how soon\u2019 \u2014 and the sooner the better for all of us.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">This year\u2019s report marks the first time that the IEA\u2019s energy outlook report has projected a peak in fossil fuel consumption. Still, the report warned that, under current policies, demand for fossil fuels is ultimately too high to keep warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius, the internationally agreed-upon benchmark to avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change. Under the current trajectory, the agency estimates that global average temperatures will increase 2.4 degrees Celsius by 2100.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">In order to meet the Paris Agreement target, the report calls for an accelerated transition to renewables and the phaseout of fossil fuels. It lays out specific goals for world leaders at COP28, including tripling renewable energy capacity and financing for renewables, doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements, cutting methane emissions from fossil fuel operations by 75 per cent, and ending approvals for coal power plants that do not utilize methods to capture carbon dioxide. Most importantly, the report calls for \u201cthe orderly decline in the use of fossil fuels.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family hang-punc-medium\">\u201cThe speed at which emissions decline will hinge in large part on our ability to finance sustainable solutions to meet rising energy demand from the world\u2019s fast-growing economies,\u201d Birol said. \u201cThis all points to the vital importance of redoubling collaboration and cooperation, not retreating from them.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">The report highlights major shifts in China\u2019s economy as a potential driver of decreasing coal use and carbon emissions. The country is the world\u2019s largest producer and consumer of coal, and the agency projected that energy production from China\u2019s coal-fired power plants will peak around 2025 and decline by 2030, as the country\u2019s reliance on coal for bulk power decreases.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">The pace and scale of reductions in coal consumption is uncertain, the report notes, and the degree of decrease depends on the pace of renewables growth. China is a leader in renewables manufacturing and is the largest producer of solar panels, wind technologies, batteries, and heat pumps. Decreases in the country\u2019s coal use depend on its ability to further scale up the production and use of these technologies, the report notes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">The IEA also warns of a \u201cglut of gas supply.\u201d Beginning in 2025, an \u201cunprecedented surge\u201d in liquefied natural gas projects \u2014 primarily in the United States and Qatar \u2014 is set to increase the global supply by 50 per cent. The dramatic increase in liquified natural gas supply will assuage energy security concerns that arose in the aftermath of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent spike in oil and gas prices. But investments in fossil fuels are double what they should be for the world to reach net-zero emissions, according to the IEA, and \u201cthis creates the clear risk of locking in fossil fuel use and putting the 1.5 degrees C goal out of reach.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family\">Climate justice advocates have been fighting such investments in Africa. In the wake of the invasion of Ukraine,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/features\/2022-07-10\/europe-s-africa-gas-imports-risk-climate-goals-leave-millions-without-power?sref=wINQCNXe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">fossil fuel companies have rushed to develop oil and gas on the continent<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 most of which is earmarked for\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/grist.org\/international\/african-countries-tapping-fossil-fuel-wealth-getting-rich-mozambique\/\">Europe<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-default-font-family hang-punc-medium\">\u201cThis is not for Africa\u2019s energy security,\u201d said Fadhel Kaboub, an associate professor of economics at Denison University and president of the public policy think tank The Global Institute for Sustainable Prosperity. \u201cThis is for Europe\u2019s energy security. This is yet another attempt to lock the African continent at the bottom of the economic scale with obsolete technology, obsolete sources of energy, and dangerous distractions that don\u2019t serve the interests of the continent and don\u2019t serve the interests of the planet.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>This article was published by Grist on Oct. 24, 2023. By Naveena Sadasivam As the upcoming United Nations climate conference promises\u00a0infighting and deadlock, the world\u2019s leading energy forecaster is delivering both good and bad news. <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/new-iea-outlook-with-renewable-energy-unstoppable-fossil-fuels-will-peak-by-2030\/\" title=\"New IEA outlook: With renewable energy \u2018unstoppable,\u2019 fossil fuels will peak by 2030\">[Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":60681,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2518,528,80,14,565,517],"class_list":{"0":"post-60680","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-cop28","9":"tag-electrification","10":"tag-environment","11":"tag-featured","12":"tag-iea","13":"tag-renewables"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>renewable energy - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy&#039;s Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"An IEA report lays out specific goals for world leaders at COP28, including tripling renewable energy capacity.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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