{"id":60403,"date":"2023-08-29T13:35:51","date_gmt":"2023-08-29T20:35:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=60403"},"modified":"2023-08-30T05:54:47","modified_gmt":"2023-08-30T12:54:47","slug":"chinas-frantic-race-to-buy-evs-a-lesson-for-alberta-if-it-will-listen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/energi-notes\/chinas-frantic-race-to-buy-evs-a-lesson-for-alberta-if-it-will-listen\/","title":{"rendered":"China&#8217;s frantic race to buy EVs a lesson for Alberta if it will listen"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Alberta&#8217;s resistance to accept energy transition realities stands in stark contrast to China<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Peak gasoline demand in China will arrive in just a few months with peak diesel demand following in 2025, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-08-04\/china-s-gasoline-demand-to-peak-early-on-fast-adoption-of-evs?cmpid=BBD082923_hyperdrive&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_term=230829&amp;utm_campaign=hyperdrive&amp;sref=2P50Jwox\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">according<\/a> to BloombergNEF, and the cause is the rapid electrification of transportation. Global peak oil demand this decade is looking more and more likely. Alberta, take note.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Because there are always skeptics about peak oil demand predictions, who\u2019s making this call is important: China Petroleum &amp; Chemical Corporation, commonly known as\u00a0Sinopec. The parent company, Sinopec Group, is the world largest refining, natural gas, and petrochemicals conglomerate. It&#8217;s also owned by China&#8217;s government. `<\/span><\/p>\n<p>As the largest gasoline and diesel retailer in a country of 1.4 billion people, Sinopec keeps close tabs on markets trends, including the remarkably rapid pace at which China is adopting electric vehicles.<\/p>\n<p><b>March of the Electric Car in China<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Two and three wheelers, very important to transportation in Asia: 70% of kilometres travelled already electric<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Passenger vehicles: 38% of new car sales and already 5% of the national fleet<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Commercial vehicles: 12% of light commercial vehicle sales and 4% to 5% of medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cleantechnica.com\/2023\/05\/09\/europes-transit-firms-realize-china-is-the-only-scaled-manufacturer-of-low-carbon-solutions\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Electric buses<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 600,000 in service<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And China is just getting started. Within three years, over half of all new cars sold will be electric.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_60414\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-60414\" style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-60414\" src=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-29-at-1.25.18-PM-e1693340830878.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"320\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-60414\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Source: BloombergNEF 2023 EV Outlook.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><b>Declining Chinese Oil Demand Not Far Off<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-60404\" src=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/unnamed-35-e1693337015789.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"356\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Five years ago I <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/markham-on-energy\/peak-oil-demand-by-2036-wood-mackenzie-says-oil-companies-are-planning-now-for-consumption-decline\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">interviewed<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> economist Ed Rawle of Wood Mackenzie about his peak oil demand forecast. His clients include many of the world\u2019s largest oil companies. All of them, he said, accept that peak demand is coming, but what happens after that is of most interest to CEOs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThey want to know, where do we sit on the cost curve in that new world? Not only the peak, but the timing around the drop off beyond the peak,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd what is the shape of that peak? That\u2019s really important and there\u2019s a huge amount of uncertainty around that.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Uncertainty hasn\u2019t disappeared, but BloombergNEF\u2019s demand curve for China\u2019s road transport (above) gives an inkling of what lies ahead.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The shape of that curve is determined not just by the number of electric vehicles on China\u2019s road, but the number of kilometres travelled compared to internal combustion engine vehicles.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-60405\" src=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/unnamed-36-e1693337078781.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"246\" \/>Ride hailing provides an insight. EVs have cost more to buy, but have lower costs per kilometre, which is ideal for taxis and ride hailing. Almost two dozen cities \u201crequire new ride-hailing vehicles to be either battery-electric, plug-in hybrid or fuel cell-powered,\u201d according to BloombergNEF. Policy and economics have combined to push EVs to almost 40 per cent of China\u2019s ride hailing fleet.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">China\u2019s frenetic switch to electric transportation is one of the reasons why Europe and North America are rushing to catch up. Expect the wealthy economies to transition first. But middle income and emerging economies won\u2019t be far behind. China is beginning to export cheap EVs more suitable to markets like Latin America and solar panels combined with microgrids make the EV infrastructure more affordable and easy to build.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The decline curves (see below) from BloombergNEF\u2019s 2023 EV outlook are beginning to look conservative only a few months after being released.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Why is China\u2019s rapid shift to electric transportation important for Alberta? Canada is the world&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/tools\/faqs\/faq.php?id=709&amp;t=6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fourth largest<\/a> oil producer behind the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Alberta produces 70 per cent, about 4 million barrels per day, of national output. On its own, Alberta would rank eighth, below the United Arab Emirates and ahead of Brazil.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Last year, Canada exported $201 billion CDN of oil and gas, according to Statistics Canada, almost all of it to the United States. For comparison&#8217;s sake, autos and parts, number two on the list, was only $65 billion CDN.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-60408\" src=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-29-at-11.55.09-AM-e1693340318645.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"294\" height=\"232\" \/>Alberta matters. And how it responds to trends like peaking oil demand in China matters a great deal.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I argued in this column, however, that <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/markham-on-energy\/albertas-political-business-elites-have-misread-the-global-energy-transition\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alberta\u2019s political, business elites have misread the global energy transition<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, that \u201cthere is no plan for Alberta to compete in a fast [energy] transition scenario\u201d and \u201choping for the best while ignoring the worst is a very poor strategy.\u201d This latest news from China makes a pretty compelling case for a fast transition.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Just a suggestion, but perhaps Alberta&#8217;s Premier Danielle Smith and major oil company CEOs should pause their political squabbles with Ottawa long enough to recognize that the markets for their chief export are rapidly changing.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>Alberta&#8217;s resistance to accept energy transition realities stands in stark contrast to China Peak gasoline demand in China will arrive in just a few months with peak diesel demand following in 2025, according to BloombergNEF, <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/energi-notes\/chinas-frantic-race-to-buy-evs-a-lesson-for-alberta-if-it-will-listen\/\" title=\"China&#8217;s frantic race to buy EVs a lesson for Alberta if it will listen\">[Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":59902,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2495],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-60403","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-energi-notes"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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