{"id":59944,"date":"2023-06-08T08:33:57","date_gmt":"2023-06-08T15:33:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=59944"},"modified":"2023-06-08T08:33:57","modified_gmt":"2023-06-08T15:33:57","slug":"tales-for-alberta-from-the-global-energy-transition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/energi-notes\/tales-for-alberta-from-the-global-energy-transition\/","title":{"rendered":"Tales for Alberta from the global energy transition"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alberta: the world will always need our oil and gas! The world: Um, you sure about that?\u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Every year I interview 300 to 400 energy experts. Half of them are from outside Canada, primarily from the US and Europe but also Asia. This is by design. When it comes to the energy transition, Canadians tend to be very insular and provincial. And no province is more parochial in this regard than Alberta. Interviewing global experts from the International Energy Agency or BloombergNEF, for example, gives me an entirely different view of the transition.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This morning, BNEF\u2019s Colin McKerracher, a Canadian boy who grew up on Salt Spring Island, was in my inbox talking about the latest Electric Vehicle Outlook<\/a>. When I interviewed him about last year\u2019s report, he said that the international automotive industry is switching so rapidly from internal combustion engines to EVs that forecasters can\u2019t keep up, necessitating revisions throughout the year. As an aside, a recent Reuters story<\/a> that supports McKerracher’s analysis says that global automakers will spend $1.2 trillion by 2030 to switch over to manufacturing EVs and related infrastructure.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"\u201cOur latest near-term EV sales outlook is brighter than what BNEF published last year, mostly due to policy changes in the US,\u201d he writes today, \u201cwhere a major investment push sparked by the Inflation Reduction Act will help more than triple the share of EVs in new sales, to 28% by 2026.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The Americans are pikers when it comes to adopting EVs. Electric light passenger vehicles will account for 89 per cent of auto sales in the Nordics, 52 per cent in China, and 42 per cent in Europe \u201cin the next few years.\u201d Globally, EVs will take 30 per cent of new sales.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"Another Bloomberg report from yesterday about rapidly ascending Chinese automaker BYD explodes a principal assumption of the Alberta oil bulls: that developing regions like India, Africa, and Latin America will stick with oil, growing demand there offsetting declining consumption in Asia, Europe, and North America.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cBYD continues to expand internationally at a blistering pace,\u201d Bloomberg says and is now in 53 countries, including Brazil, Uruguay, and Thailand where it is rapidly becoming the most popular new car for consumers. One of the reasons for BYD\u2019s popularity is that 15 years ago China\u2019s policy-makers focused on affordability, unlike Tesla and European legacy automakers, who pursued premium SUVs and pricey electric cars. Consumers can buy a Guandong Mini for as little as $4,500USD or a BYD Seagull for $10,500.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n