{"id":59778,"date":"2023-05-23T11:06:15","date_gmt":"2023-05-23T18:06:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=59778"},"modified":"2023-05-23T11:06:15","modified_gmt":"2023-05-23T18:06:15","slug":"eia-expects-lower-crude-oil-price-for-the-second-half-of-2023-and-for-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/eia-expects-lower-crude-oil-price-for-the-second-half-of-2023-and-for-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"EIA expects lower crude oil price for the second half of 2023 and for 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was published by the US Energy Information Administration<\/a> on May 22, 2023.<\/em><\/p>\n

By Matthew French<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

We lowered our crude oil price forecast for the rest of 2023 and for 2024 in our May\u00a0Short-Term Energy Outlook<\/em><\/a>\u00a0(STEO) because of relatively rapid declines in the crude oil price since April.<\/p>\n

Between April 12, 2023, and May 4, 2023, the Brent crude oil price fell $16 per barrel (b) to $73\/b; the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price fell $15\/b to $69\/b. We expect that a drop in\u00a0OPEC production<\/a>\u00a0and increases in demand will lead to relatively moderate price increases over the next few months.<\/p>\n

\"Short-Term<\/p>\n

Data source:\u00a0<\/strong>U.S. Energy Information Administration,\u00a0Short-Term Energy Outlook<\/em><\/a>, May 2023<\/div>\n
\n

The recent price declines are caused by a combination of supply and demand market factors. On the demand side, news of a decrease in\u00a0China\u2019s manufacturing Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index<\/a>, an indicator of economic conditions, added to market concerns about China\u2019s economic growth and\u00a0a possible U.S. recession<\/a>. Concerns about the\u00a0banking sector<\/a>\u00a0after\u00a0First Republic Bank<\/a>\u00a0was closed and subsequently sold also added to concerns about global economic growth and oil demand.<\/p>\n

On the supply side,\u00a0oil flows from Russia<\/a>\u00a0have remained higher than expected, increasing global oil supply and putting downward pressure on crude oil prices. However, in April 2023,\u00a0OPEC+ members agreed<\/a>\u00a0to cut oil production through 2023. In our May STEO, we forecast that OPEC total production of liquid fuels will decline from 34.0 million barrels per day (b\/d) in April to average 33.7 million b\/d for the rest of 2023.<\/p>\n

In addition to our expectation that OPEC+ countries will adhere to voluntary production cuts,\u00a0recent disruptions to crude oil exports from Iraq<\/a>\u00a0and a\u00a0force majeure limiting crude oil exports from Nigeria<\/a>\u00a0have also reduced our near-term OPEC liquid fuels production forecast. We expect that these supply constraints will put upward pressure on crude oil prices. In 2024, we expect OPEC liquid fuels production will increase by 0.7 million b\/d to 34.4 million b\/d, driven by an end of the currently agreed upon OPEC+ production cuts in 2023.<\/p>\n

We expect the Brent crude oil price will increase from $74\/b in May 2023 to $79\/b in September before declining slightly to average $78\/b in the last three months of 2023. We expect the West Texas Intermediate price will follow a similar path.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was published by the US Energy Information Administration on May 22, 2023. By Matthew French We lowered our crude oil price forecast for the rest of 2023 and for 2024 in our May\u00a0Short-Term [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":59779,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[322,891,14,71],"class_list":{"0":"post-59778","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-eia","10":"tag-featured","11":"tag-opec"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\noil price - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The EIA cut its crude oil price forecast for the rest of 2023 and for 2024 due to relatively rapid drops in the crude oil price since April.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/news\/eia-expects-lower-crude-oil-price-for-the-second-half-of-2023-and-for-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"oil price - 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