{"id":51655,"date":"2019-07-22T17:27:55","date_gmt":"2019-07-22T17:27:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/energi.media\/?p=51655"},"modified":"2019-07-22T17:27:55","modified_gmt":"2019-07-22T17:27:55","slug":"opinion-the-worst-kind-of-climate-policy-is-an-uncertain-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/energi.media\/opinion\/opinion-the-worst-kind-of-climate-policy-is-an-uncertain-one\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: The worst kind of climate policy is an uncertain one"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Jason Dion <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

This article was published by Canada’s Ecofiscal Commission<\/a> on July 17, 2019.<\/em><\/p>\n

The challenge of policy uncertainty<\/h2>\n

I recently discussed the Ontario government\u2019s 2018\u00a0repeal of cap-and-trade<\/a>\u00a0with an executive from a large multinational manufacturer. At the time of repeal, his company was on the verge of making a large investment to reduce the GHG intensity of its Ontario facilities. Following repeal, they cancelled this investment. Repeal was a possibility that the company had anticipated; it was part of the reason it had not yet proceeded. Nevertheless, the resources that went into planning the investment could have been put to more productive use elsewhere\u2014repeal had real costs for the company. Moreover, Ontario didn\u2019t get to benefit from the investment and GHG reductions that would have been associated with the project.<\/p>\n

While the new Ontario government is\u00a0working<\/a>\u00a0on an\u00a0output-based pricing system<\/a>\u00a0that will treat his company similarly to how it was treated under cap-and-trade (and thereby provide a similar business case for retrofitting), the executive said it was not clear his company would reconsider once the new policy was instituted. The possibility of yet more future changes in policy would make the case for investment less compelling relative to other investments it could make elsewhere.<\/p>\n

This uncertainty around future policy is one of the hidden costs around our polarized climate policy discussion.<\/p>\n

Policy uncertainty is bad for business<\/h2>\n

Policy uncertainty can paralyze businesses\u2019 investment decision-making. When climate policy is uncertain, companies that sell emissions-intensive products (or emissions-reducing<\/em>\u00a0products) have little way of knowing how large the demand for their products will be. And those with emissions-intensive production don\u2019t know whether investing in a lower-emitting production technology will prove to be a competitive advantage or a competitive\u00a0disadvantage<\/em>.<\/p>\n

The chilling effect that policy uncertainty can have on\u00a0low-carbon innovation<\/a>\u00a0is especially worrying. When companies don\u2019t know how stringent future climate policy will be, there is a weaker business case for R&D focused on developing low-carbon goods and services. Technological innovations that could lower Canada\u2019s GHG mitigation costs (as well as present export opportunities) risk going unrealized.<\/p>\n

The worst of the worst: Policy reversal<\/h2>\n

Uncertain medium- to long-term climate policy is bad enough. But the most challenging kind of uncertainty is uncertain\u00a0near<\/em>-term policy. When there is a risk governments will abruptly\u00a0change or reverse climate policy course<\/a>, there can be significant economic consequences.<\/p>\n

As my conversation with the executive illustrates, suddenly repealing a previous government\u2019s climate policies with\u00a0little to no compensation for affected parties<\/a>, reduces the credibility of a new government\u2019s own, future policies. Businesses lose confidence that the jurisdiction is a stable place to invest. Not only does this impede investment in GHG mitigation, it impedes investment\u00a0generally<\/em>. In this way, climate policy reversal can have significant costs to the broader economy.<\/p>\n

Easier said than done<\/h2>\n

Having stable, credible climate policies with clear, planned stringency increases will reduce the economic costs of Canada\u2019s low-carbon transition. Nevertheless, climate policy remains uncertain. Carbon prices, for example, are set to rise to $50\/tonne by 2022. It\u2019s uncertain whether they\u2019ll continue to rise any further. Moreover, it\u2019s not clear they\u2019ll even get that high. Depending on the outcome of the federal election this fall, there may not even be a federal carbon price.<\/p>\n

We\u00a0ought<\/em>\u00a0to be having political debates about climate policy choices, including whether Canada should have a national price on carbon and\u00a0what we should do with the revenues<\/a>. We\u2019re not likely to have much policy certainty until these debates get resolved. It may be tempting to get more certainty by taking shortcuts in these debates; for example, by locking policies in and making them hard for future governments to change. But we want future governments to be able to respond to new information and circumstances. Tying their hands is not the answer.<\/p>\n

Politics makes climate policy certainty tough to get in practice. However, just because we can\u2019t have full policy certainty doesn\u2019t mean we can\u2019t improve it.<\/p>\n

Designing policy to reduce uncertainty<\/h2>\n

There are a number of ways governments can improve climate policy certainty. Here are a few things they can do:<\/p>\n

BUILD ON AREAS OF AGREEMENT<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Despite sharply diverging views on carbon pricing in Canada, one type of climate policy actually has\u00a0broad agreement<\/a>: output-based pricing (OBP). OBP applies to large emitters that are vulnerable to competitiveness challenges and GHG leakage (see\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0for an explainer). Governments of all stripes across Canada are implementing it. But despite this emerging consensus, policy uncertainty often remains. Alberta, for example, is planning a system that will be its third iteration of OBP.<\/p>\n

EMPOWER OBJECTIVE, NEUTRAL THIRD PARTIES<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Governments can also appoint neutral bodies that provide advice to governments and help set policy. The UK\u2019s\u00a0Committee on Climate Change (CCC)<\/a>\u00a0provides a good example. The CCC provides independent advice to the government on setting and meeting carbon budgets, monitors progress against goals, and does independent analysis of climate change science, economics and policy. It is expert-driven, has cross-party support, and a role enshrined in legislation. Actors across the political spectrum trust the CCC. As a result, businesses have greater confidence that policymakers will continue to take up its analysis and advice, making pendulum swings in policy less likely.<\/p>\n

INSTITUTE TRANSPARENT AND PREDICTABLE PROCESSES<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Creating clear and predictable processes for policy changes can also increase certainty. For example, the Manitoba government\u2019s Carbon Savings Account (CSA) requires the provincial government to set five-year budgets for GHG emissions and enact policies to reach them. If the province overshoots a five-year budget, it subtracts the corresponding amount from the next budget, creating more certainty about the stringency of future policy. This kind of process doesn\u2019t preclude policy changes in the future. But it does send the signal that changes will take place in a more predictable, transparent way.<\/p>\n

Certainty? Certainly<\/h2>\n

Policy uncertainty isn\u2019t in anyone\u2019s interest. It increases the cost of Canada\u2019s low-carbon transition and risks causing us to lose out on the export opportunities. And in the case of policy reversal, it makes businesses less likely to invest in Canada.<\/p>\n

Eliminating policy uncertainty is a tall order. But we should do what we can to reduce it.<\/p>\n

Jason Dion is Lead Researcher at Canada’s Ecofiscal Commission.\u00a0 Canada’s Ecofiscal Commission is an independent economics organization formed in 2014 by a group of economists from across Canada.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Jason Dion This article was published by Canada’s Ecofiscal Commission on July 17, 2019. The challenge of policy uncertainty I recently discussed the Ontario government\u2019s 2018\u00a0repeal of cap-and-trade\u00a0with an executive from a large multinational [Read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":51656,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"give_campaign_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[544,222,14,835],"class_list":{"0":"post-51655","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-opinion","8":"tag-carbon-pricing","9":"tag-carbon-tax","10":"tag-featured","11":"tag-ghgs"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe worst kind of climate policy is an uncertain one - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With uncertain climate policy, companies that sell emissions-intensive products have little way of knowing how large the demand for their products will be.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/energi.media\/opinion\/opinion-the-worst-kind-of-climate-policy-is-an-uncertain-one\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The worst kind of climate policy is an uncertain one - 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