On February 9, 2026, Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings (TEPCO) confirmed the restart of the 1,356-megawatt Unit 6 at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa in Niigata Prefecture, with full commercial operations expected by mid-March. The reactor — offline since the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident for safety enhancements and regulatory review — will be the first TEPCO unit to resume service in nearly 14 years and is projected to generate about 9.5 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually once fully ramped up.

Japan now has 15 operating nuclear reactors with a combined capacity of about 33 gigawatts (GW), out of an operable fleet of 32. In 2024, this fleet produced roughly 83 TWh — about 9 per cent of total electricity generation — as nuclear capacity gradually returned after extensive safety reviews and public debate over nuclear energy’s role.

Impact on fossil fuel use and LNG imports

Analysts and government estimates suggest the added nuclear output from Unit 6 could displace about 1.3 million tonnes of LNG — equivalent to roughly 62 billion cubic feet of natural gas imports annually — if generation from nuclear substitutes for gas-fired power. That displacement figure reflects Japan’s ongoing effort to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels for electricity, a legacy effect of all reactors shutting down following the 2011 tsunami and nuclear accident.

Natural gas previously accounted for about 33 per cent of Japan’s electricity mix in 2024, with LNG imports serving as a critical feedstock for gas-fired plants. Japan remains the second-largest LNG importer globally after China, though annual LNG demand has declined in recent years as nuclear and renewables have grown. Japanese companies imported roughly 9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of LNG in 2025, down from about 11 Bcf/d in 2018, according to market data. Australia, Malaysia, Russia and the United States have been among Japan’s top LNG suppliers, with Australian volumes rising in recent years while U.S. shipments declined.

The increase in nuclear output also fits within Japan’s long-term energy strategy, which aims to raise nuclear’s share of electricity generation to around 20 per cent by 2040. Meeting that goal would require up to 30 reactors in operation, meaning some of the 17 currently non-operating reactors would need to clear regulatory and local hurdles before restarting. Three units have initial Nuclear Regulation Authority approval and six more are under review.

Renewables and policy context

Alongside nuclear, Japan’s power mix has seen renewable generation grow steadily. Solar capacity, in particular, expanded rapidly in the past decade, and preliminary statistics indicate that renewables accounted for more than 26 per cent of electricity generation in 2024, with solar alone contributing more than 11 per cent and hydro nearly 8 per cent. Fossil fuels, including coal and natural gas, still made up the majority of generation but have trended downward from levels exceeding 70 per cent earlier in the decade.

Japan’s evolving energy policies — including its 6th Strategic Energy Plan and the broader Green Transformation (GX) agenda — reinforce these shifts. The plans aim to nearly double renewable generation’s share and boost nuclear’s role by 2030 while reducing fossil fuel dependence significantly. Officials see nuclear as an essential part of ensuring energy security and reducing electricity price volatility, particularly in a country that imports roughly 90 per cent of its energy needs.

Historical and public sentiment backdrop

Japan’s reliance on nuclear power draws directly from its pre-2011 energy configuration, when reactors provided around 30 per cent of electricity. Following the Fukushima disaster, all reactors were taken offline for safety upgrades under new regulatory standards, and public opinion tilted sharply away from nuclear generation. That shift significantly increased fossil fuel use and raised energy import costs.

Efforts to restart large reactors like Kashiwazaki-Kariwa have often been met with local debate and scrutiny over safety and disaster preparedness. Approval from regional authorities has been essential for restarts, reflecting lingering public sensitivity to nuclear risks. Still, government policy revisions now emphasize maximizing both renewable and nuclear “carbon-free” power sources, signalling a broader acceptance of nuclear as part of Japan’s decarbonization trajectory.

Market and geopolitical implications

Bloomberg and Reuters reporting over recent years has underscored that Japan’s nuclear comeback is closely tied to broader energy security concerns, including volatile LNG markets and price spikes following global supply disruptions. Analysts have noted that a robust nuclear fleet could insulate Japan from some of these risks, particularly as competition for LNG supplies intensifies in Asia.

NPR highlighted the challenge Japan faces balancing safety, public sentiment and decarbonization goals, noting that nuclear restarts require meticulous regulatory oversight and clear communication to gain social license.

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Canada and Luxembourg have maintained diplomatic relations since 1945 and share membership in key multilateral institutions such as NATO, the United Nations and the Organization internationale de la Francophonie. Luxembourg also opened its embassy in Ottawa in 2025 — a symbolic step in strengthening bilateral engagement.

Economic Partnerships and Investment Dialogue

At the centre of discussions was the launch of the 2026 Canada-Luxembourg Financial Sector Policy Dialogue, a new forum to bring together finance officials on issues including financial stability, sustainable finance, fintech innovation, and capital markets development. Carney and Frieden said the initiative will help align policy approaches in an era of complex global finance.

Luxembourg is one of Canada’s most significant European sources of foreign direct investment (FDI). In 2024, Luxembourg’s FDI stock in Canada was valued at approximately $22.3 billion, while merchandise trade between the two countries totalled about $249.8 million. Luxembourg also ranks among the top European investors in Canada, reflecting strong financial and commercial links.

Both leaders emphasised efforts to expand bilateral trade and investment in advanced sectors such as advanced manufacturing, infrastructure, aerospace, space technology and related technologies. The discussions also touched on opportunities to boost Canadian exports into European markets by leveraging Luxembourg’s position as a global financial hub.

Talent and Academic Collaboration

A significant educational partnership announced during the visit was the establishment of the McGill Luxembourg Centre for Finance and McGill University’s Master of Management in Finance program. The initiative aims to boost academic collaboration and broaden student and talent exchanges between the two countries — a move seen as supporting the development of a globally competitive financial workforce. Prior partnerships underpinning the Centre were established with Luxembourg’s institutional and industry partners, strengthening ties between academic research and financial market practice.

Security, NATO and Ukraine Support

As NATO allies, Canada and Luxembourg also reiterated strong support for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. Carney and Frieden discussed reinforcing transatlantic security and bolstering defence supply chains, including in the Arctic, where climate change and geopolitical competition have elevated strategic importance.

Both prime ministers reiterated the need for a “just and lasting peace” in Ukraine backed by robust security guarantees. They also signalled support for the proposed Defence, Security and Resilience Bank (DSR Bank), a concept intended to provide multi-year, low-cost financing for defence, security and resilience initiatives. The instrument — still in discussion — is seen by proponents as a way to strengthen defence industrial cooperation beyond traditional government procurement.

Broader Context: Canada’s Global Strategy

The Ottawa visit comes as Carney pursues an active global agenda aimed at diversifying Canada’s economic partnerships beyond traditional markets. In recent months, his government has been involved in diplomatic engagements in China, where agreements were reached on tariff reductions for key exports including canola oil and electric vehicles, and in other regions focused on investment and trade promotion.

Carney’s emphasis on reliable international partnerships reflects a broader strategy shaped by global economic uncertainty, strained supply chains and geopolitical tensions. As Canada seeks to balance economic growth with security concerns, the Luxembourg visit underscores a pragmatic approach to forging partnerships that integrate investment, talent development and defence cooperation.

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By Fatih Birol, Executive Director

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By Mitchell Beer

On the heels of a new strategic partnership with China, and with Prime Minister Mark Carney planning a trip to India later this year, the plan to reduce Canada’s trade dependence on the United States is beginning to yield closer connections with the world’s first two electrostates.

As Trump threatened a 100% tariff against Canadian products in response to a deal with China that he initially praised, at least one Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer looked to be preparing for an expansion into Canada, while a federal official said Canada wanted to be the first country in North America to build an EV with Chinese know-how.

Meanwhile, just as China is receiving wide recognition as the world’s first electrostate, a small flurry of news and analysis had India rapidly emerging as the second, advancing farther and faster than China did when it had achieved the same degree of economic development.

‘Foreign Troubles’ for U.S. Automakers

In their strategic partnership announced Jan. 16, Canada agreed to sharply reduce tariffs on electric vehicle imports from China, while China offered up tariff relief for Canadian canola, peas, pork, and seafood. Canada will slash duties on up to 49,000 Chinese EVs per year, rising to 70,000 by 2031, to a “most-favoured-nation tariff rate” of 6.1%. Within five years, as well, more than half of those vehicles are meant to be affordable EVs with an import price of less than $35,000.

At the time, CBC said Ottawa would soon release a strategy to expand the auto sector and “leapfrog” the U.S., with “preferential access to foreign automakers that manufacture vehicles in Canada.”

Scarcely a week later, the New York Times reported that the U.S. industry’s “foreign troubles” now extend to Canada, after U.S. trade policy “devastated the Canadian auto industry and pushed the country to reach an agreement that will make it easier for Chinese companies to sell cars there.” That could make the Canada-China agreement “an ominous development for U.S. automakers that are already struggling to stay relevant outside North America,” the Times wrote.

“General Motors and Ford Motor—the two largest U.S.-based car manufacturers—have been steadily losing customers in Asia, Europe, and Latin America, as Chinese carmakers have gained ground,” the news story stated. “If they lose significant ground to Chinese companies in Canada, Mexico, and other countries where they once dominated, Ford and GM could gradually become niche manufacturers.”

“There’s a real danger that the market for U.S. carmakers is going to largely be the U.S., and only that part of the U.S. market that wants big SUVs and trucks,” Erik Gordon, a professor at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, told Times auto industry reporter Jack Ewing.

“Historically, U.S. trade policy regarding automotive has been mirrored in Canada,” added George Washington University engineering professor John Helveston, in an interview with the South China Morning Post. But now, “Canada is realizing that the U.S. industry is perhaps not the only one to be tied to,” a measure of both the impact of Trump’s tariff wars and the wider decline of U.S. leadership.

In Canada, the partnership has analysts arguing that lower costs will help consumers, although concerns about supply chains, industrial strategy, environmental impacts, and “strategic dependence” have yet to be resolved.

“The quota is too small to translate into a cheap-car bonanza for Canadian car shoppers,” the Globe and Mail writes. “But it is likely to increase competition among automakers, in China and elsewhere, to make $35,000 EVs fit for the Canadian market.”

The first imports will likely come from western automakers with Chinese production lines, notably Chinese-owned Volvo, Buick, and Elon Musk’s Tesla, the Globe says. But “China’s own brands won’t take long to show up in Canada,” the news story states, citing Canadian Black Book senior manager Daniel Ross, and they’ll want to build their profile “by focusing on models that meet North American expectations in terms of features, style, and size.” That will put them in competition “with compact and subcompact SUV segments, which, together, currently make up about half of the Canadian market.”

Late last week, the Globe reported that China’s Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. was laying the groundwork for a Canadian sales network, with at least three auto industry veterans saying they’d been contacted by recruiters who indicated they were working for Chery. The company is also considering building cars in a UK plant owned by Jaguar Land Rover, the Financial Times writes.

The Globe also reports on the difficulties that Chinese manufacturer BYD ran into when it tried to set up manufacturing operations in Ontario a few years ago.

The Two Electrostates

The trade deal earlier this month is just one part of an economic diversification strategy that had Carney concluding deals with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar over the last month. With International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu now calling for closer trade ties between Canada and India, Carney is planning a visit as soon as March, Reuters reported in an exclusive this week, with indications of trade talks in Brazil and Australia later this year.

For a few years, China has been seen as the world’s first electrostate, with renewable energy and energy storage investments that far exceed the activity in any other country. Earlier this month, Carbon Brief talked to nearly a dozen leading experts in Chinese energy and climate policy to get a sense of what to expect in 2026—the year when the country will publish a set of five-year targets that “could boost—or moderate –the pace of its energy transition.”

For more than 18 months, analysis by Carbon Brief and others has shown China’s carbon dioxide emissions either flat or falling. This year, new non-binding emission targets and an expanded carbon market are expected to take effect, even as extreme weather increases the importance of climate adaptation “while also adding to the challenge of advancing clean energy.”

Already, though, renewable energy has already replaced natural gas as “the leading replacement for coal demand in China, with growth in solar and wind generation largely keeping emissions growth from China’s power sector flat,” Carbon Brief reports. Nikkei Asia says China installed three times more battery storage capacity than the U.S. in 2025.

Now India is “electrifying faster and using fewer fossil fuels per capita than China did when it was at similar levels of economic development,” Bloomberg says, citing analysis by the UK’s Ember energy think tank. “It’s a sign that clean electricity could be the most direct way to boost growth for other developing economies, too.”

The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi “is considering new plans that would double India’s coal power capacity by 2047, and the country’s oil consumption growth was set to outpace China’s last year,” Bloomberg writes. “But the South Asian economy’s coal and oil consumption per capita is a fraction of what China’s was at similar income levels. In absolute terms, India’s fossil fuel consumption is growing at slower rates than China’s today.”

No More Engine for Oil and Gas Growth

Energi Media publisher Markham Hislop says the Ember analysis has wider implications.

“It suggests that India, the country long assumed to be the last great engine of global oil and gas demand growth, may already be bending away from fossil fuels faster than China did at a comparable stage of development,” Hislop writes. “That version of India’s energy future undermines the strategic assumptions underpinning energy policy in exporting nations from the Middle East to North America, including Canada.”

The driving force behind that shift is “simple and structural,” he adds, citing Ember. “China had to pioneer modern electric technologies at scale. India does not. It is industrializing at a moment when solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles are abundant, cheap, and improving every year. India is not taking a fossil detour because it no longer makes economic sense to do so.”

Which in turn leads Hislop to the implications for fossil fuel exporters. “If India’s oil and gas demand really is nearing a peak, or never reaches the levels long assumed, the implications ripple outward.,” Hislop says. “For global markets. For geopolitics. And for countries like Canada that have built their long-term energy ambitions on the idea that someone, somewhere, will always need more hydrocarbons.”

In his Electrotech Revolution newsletter, Ember strategist and report co-author Kingsmill Bond cites faster solar deployment, much lower per capita coal use, rapid growth of electric vehicles, much lower oil demand in transport, and a “similar rapid electrification pathway” as factors that could make India’s “electrotech fast-track” more effective than China’s “fossil detour” en route to electrostate status.

“This energy path avoids deep fossil fuel dependency while positioning the country to supply electrotech to the world,” he writes, in what amounts to a “new path for emerging economies. India is showing other countries how to take a cheaper, faster, cleaner pathway to the electrotech future.”

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By Christopher Bonasia

Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD was set earlier this year to release a model that will be able to drive up to 400 kilometres after just five minutes of charging, though experts warn of infrastructure challenges.

The company reported a record annual revenue of US$170 billion in 2024, overtaking Tesla’s $155.5 billion. These developments highlight the widening gap between the two companies as BYD’s technology continues to surpass Tesla’s, writes ABC News.

Riding on its success, BYD is looking to expand its production facilities in Europe by building a third manufacturing plant in Germany, which will help it reach European customers without the extra cost of import tariffs.

BYD’s new charging capacity is made possible by an “all liquid-cooled megawatt flash charging terminal system.” The charging system is matched with a 1500-volt next-generation silicon carbide power chip and a flash-charging battery with ultra-fast ion channels, which halves the battery’s internal resistance.

Those innovations enable drivers to recharge their vehicles at a rate of about two kilometres per second, faster than any other passenger EV. The next closest competitor—Li Auto, also based in China—can reach a 500-kilometre range in 12 minutes, while Tesla superchargers can charge to a 275-kilometre range in 15 minutes, Bloomberg writes.

Two vehicles with this capacity will be launched in April—the Han L and the Tang L sport utility vehicle. Starting prices for these options are C$53,224 (270,000 yuan) and $55,196 (280,000 yuan). In comparison, the extended range option for BYD’s Han EV costs $45,300 (229,800 yuan). Prices for a Tesla Model Y start at $64,990 in Canada.

The fast charging time will help some buyers move past anxiety over EV wait times, InsideEVs Plugged-In Podcast co-hosts Patrick George and Tim Levin said. But they added that the really important point about BYD’s progress isn’t just that its technology is better than that of other companies, but that it is available in vehicles that are accessible for average consumers. BYD’s cars are sold for a good value in China even though they are more expensive or unavailable in other countries because of high tariffs. George said BYD EVs are unassuming and normal, instead of looking like “high-tech spaceships.”

“It’s so crazy how they’ve normalized this stuff,” he added.

BYD has plans to install 4,000 of its chargers across China, but has not provided specifics on how that will unfold. Some experts say that while the charging systems can work on their own, it may be difficult to integrate them into the grid because they have large power needs that could demand costly grid connection updates. The advanced liquid-cooled system itself is likely to be more expensive than other chargers, which could mean higher charging prices for drivers, reports Wired.

Others question exactly how useful the new system will be, given that most EV drivers are able to charge their vehicles at night when charging times are less relevant. The super-fast charging could also pose some safety concerns and might affect the long-term durability of the battery, writes Bloomberg.

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By Josh Eiermann

U.S. ethane exports are poised for significant growth through 2026, driven by robust global demand for ethane as a petrochemical feedstock, substantial U.S. export capacity expansions, and larger vessels to carry ethane exports. In our October Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. ethane net exports will grow 14% in 2025, followed by a 16% rise in 2026. The United States does not import ethane.

Ethane, a natural gas liquid primarily extracted from raw natural gas during processing, is a critical component in the petrochemical sector. It’s mainly used as a feedstock to produce ethylene, which is used to make a wide range of products including plastics, resins, and synthetic rubber.

The expansion of U.S. ethane export infrastructure supports export growth. Energy Transfer commissioned its Nederland facility in Texas in the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25), with capacity to export 250,000 barrels per day (b/d) of either ethane or propane. Energy Transfer will also expand its Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania, terminal by 20,000 b/d at the end of 2025. In July, Enterprise commissioned the Neches River ethane terminal in Texas, which has a capacity of 120,000 b/d. The second phase of the Neches River terminal is expected to come online in early 2026, adding 180,000 b/d of capacity. The addition of the Nederland flexport facility and first phase of the Neches River terminal increased U.S. ethane export capacity 16%; the second phase of Neches River terminal will expand it a further 21%.

Developers in the United States are expanding ethane export capacity to meet increasing global demand for ethane as a petrochemical feedstock, particularly in China. China has historically been the largest destination for U.S. ethane, accounting for 47% of exports in 2024. However, demand growth in China is expected to slow in 2026 amid tightening product margins and oversupply of ethylene derivatives in East Asia.

New and reconfigured crackers in China have contributed to the country’s growing demand for ethane. Wanhua Chemical recently completed a second cracker in Yantai, China, in 1Q25, which takes ethane and naphtha as feedstock. According to Argus, Wanhua Chemical shut down its first cracker in Yantai, China, in June to begin a five-month conversion switch to ethane as a feedstock instead of the propane that it currently consumes.

Although new facilities and conversions are boosting U.S. ethane exports, potential slowdowns in demand growth and regulatory changes introduce some uncertainties beyond 2026. Two Chinese ethylene cracker projects have been delayed and may take naphtha as feedstock instead of ethane, following a notice issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security in May requiring U.S. ethane exporters to obtain a special license to export ethane to China. The requirement ended on July 2. Although naphtha can be sourced from countries around the world, the United States is the only country capable of exporting waterborne ethane.

In Europe, the INEOS Project One cracker in Antwerp, Belgium, with a capacity of about 80,000 b/d of ethane, is slated to come online in 3Q26. This cracker will be the largest in Europe and one of the largest in the world, adding more petrochemical production in Northwest Europe.

Not only is export capacity growing, but the vessels that carry ethane are getting bigger, with more capacity to support growing ethane demand. Tankers that can carry ethane range from handysize, which can carry ethane over short distances, to Ultra Large Ethane Carriers (ULECs), which are designed to carry up to 1.5 million barrels on intercontinental routes.

Eastern Pacific Shipping ordered six ULECs in 2024 to be delivered in 2027, which will be built in Chinese shipyards. Ten Very Large Ethane Carriers (VLECs) were also built in China, amounting to about 25% of the VLEC fleet. The U.S. Trade Representative plans to start implementing fees on Chinese built vessels in October (around $2 million per voyage), adding more uncertainty in U.S.-China ethane trade.

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By Mitchell Beer

The Canadian government will depend on continuing gas demand from Europe and “exploratory discussions” with potential trading partners in Germany to back up Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson’s pledge last week to deliver a first LNG shipment to Europe in “as little as five years”.

The emerging gas export plan may also hinge on the prospect of liquefied natural gas “swaps” on international markets, according to news reports.

Last week, Hodgson joined Prime Minister Mark Carney in Berlin to launch a major LNG export push, including new port infrastructure under consideration in Churchill, Manitoba and Montreal. The announcement has Canada positioning itself as a key supplier of gas and critical minerals to Europe’s energy transition and resource security.

In an email to The Mix Friday afternoon, a senior media relations advisor in Hodgson’s department, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), laid out some of the conditions and assumptions behind the top-line announcement.

“While in Germany, [fossil] energy companies and stakeholders expressed strong interest in Canadian LNG,” she wrote. “This was also part of discussions with industry and government. Lower-carbon Canadian LNG could offer Germany the opportunity to displace Russian gas with reliable, stable supply from Canada that would advance their goal of ending imports of Russian energy.”

But “these are very much exploratory discussions at this time,” the advisor added.

“Commercially viable projects that have the support of the province, and affected Indigenous communities will be considered by the federal government. Regulatory approvals would follow existing processes and the decision to build lies with proponents and investors.”

Future Gas Demand Vs. Massive Energy Savings

The NRCan advisor acknowledged projections from the International Energy Agency that European gas demand will fall 9 per cent between 2023 and 2030, but said the continent’s total consumption will “remain substantial” at decade’s end, at 44.7 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day.

“LNG demand in particular will remain robust,” she wrote, citing the Wood Mackenzie energy analytics firm. WoodMac’s modelling “anticipates that European LNG demand will peak by the mid-2030s (roughly 30 million tonnes above current anticipated demand of 116 million tonnes, in 2025). The majority of that LNG demand is uncontracted beyond 2035, which offers opportunities for Canadian exports.”

But that doesn’t indicate any certainty for projects that require 15 or 20 years of demand to justify major new investment. Last week, a joint reporting effort by The Mix and Berlin-based Clean Energy Wire found multiple analysts who see limited prospects for future LNG trade.

“In the medium and long term, we’re not anticipating an increase in gas demand, certainly not in Western Europe,” Pawel Czyzak, Europe programme director at the Ember energy think tank, said in an email. EU gas demand fell 17 per cent between 2021 and 2024, spurred largely by the energy shock following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and consumption will continue to shrink through 2030 as Europe electrifies its economy.

That means the continent “is already heavily oversupplied towards 2030,” he said, and “that oversupply will get even more severe if the questionable fossil fuel imports from the EU-U.S. trade [and tariff deal] are implemented.”

Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst, Europe with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), said the EU is on track to reduce its gas imports 25 per cent by 2030 under REPowerEU, its plan to end its dependency on Russian fossil fuels by 2027 through increased energy efficiency, faster growth in renewable energy, and diversified energy supplies. The plan included voluntary gas reduction targets for 2022, 2023, and 2024, an the bloc exceeded its targets for the first two years, though Jaller-Makarewicz warned in a May, 2024 commentary that EU targets for 2024 and 2025 could allow for increased gas use.

Even so, “EU efforts to curb gas demand and diversify energy sources have been vital for Europe’s security of supply,” she told The Mix in an email. “Cutting dependency on gas from Russia or any other country can be achieved if gas consumption reduction measures continue in place.”

With an affordable energy action plan set to replace up to 100 billion cubic metres (more than 3,500 billion cubic feet) of gas by 2030, she added, “the bloc could satisfy demand without additional gas infrastructure or increased imports.”

IEEFA energy finance analyst Clark Williams-Derry said a “reshuffling of deck chairs” might see Germany importing more LNG while the United Kingdom imports less, with the net result that Europe as a whole needs no additional supply. With significant new LNG capacity coming online in the near future, he said the global market will be over-supplied between 2026 and 2036—well past the five- to seven-year delivery target that Hodgson laid out last week—with the peak expected to hit in 2029.

Jaller-Makarewicz said the EU is also operating under Fit for 55, a set of laws aimed at reducing the continent’s climate pollution by at least 55 per cent by 2030. Some of its key elements include a carbon border adjustment mechanism, higher emission reduction targets for industry, and energy savings for vulnerable populations.

A ‘Climate Wake-Up Call’

Meanwhile, European decision-makers heard a stark warning in the last week that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could begin shutting down as early as the 2060s, in what European Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra called a “wake-up call” from researchers at Utrecht University. “Shutdown of the AMOC would see temperatures in Europe plummet even as global warming marches on. This would also reduce rainfall and likely bring even drier summers, with devastating consequences for agriculture,” Politico EU reported.

“There’s a sense out there that climate change has taken a backseat because we’re so busy dealing with [other] pressing concerns,” Hoekstra wrote on social media. “So a big thanks to these scientists for giving us another serious climate wake-up call.”

East Coast LNG Vs. West Coast ‘Swaps’

Although much of the initial reaction to Carney’s and Hodgson’s European tour focused on the limited prospects for new LNG terminals in Atlantic Canada, discussions in Berlin centred on two other possibilities: treating Churchill, which Carney cited as “essentially a new port”, as an eastbound export terminal for LNG, or having European companies buy up West Coast LNG and trade it on global markets for suppliers that are closer to home.

“Many of the buyers are prepared to buy LNG off the West Coast of Canada and trade those products in the international market for LNG,” Hodgson told media Berlin.

That line of thought matched up with recent remarks by British Columbia Energy and Climate Solutions Minister Adrian Dix, who told the Globe and Mail he sees his province becoming a leading global supplier of fossil fuels while boosting renewable energy at home.

“At the centre of the strategy is an investment in wind and solar power that Mr. Dix likened in scale to the dawn of B.C.’s modern hydroelectricity system in the 1960s. He suggested it has the ability to draw capital displaced from the United States amid that country’s anti-renewables turn,” wrote Globe columnist Adam Radwanski.

“While the new capacity would partly enable a climate-friendly shift in energy usage—from gasoline-powered cars to electric vehicles, for example—it’s also meant to power the growth of the province’s LNG industry, as well as new mining activity.”

But “B.C.’s version of Mr. Carney’s grand bargain between resource extraction and sustainability remains tenuous,” Radwanski added. Dix’s “overarching message was that Ottawa’s backing—financial, rhetorical and, in some cases, regulatory—could go a long way toward ensuring investor confidence, as well as social licence.”

Dix did contrast B.C.’s wish list of nation-building projects with the westbound oil pipeline that has been loudly championed by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and opposed by the B.C. government. He said B.C.’s top pick, the 450-kilometre North Coast Transmission Line from Prince George to Terrace, would help electrify the province’s gas industry while opening up critical mineral reserves to supply electric vehicle supply chains.

The project is ready to roll, he told Radwanski, and is no less than “the best national project existing in Canada now.”

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By Sean Hill

The volume of crude oil and natural gas traded between the two countries increased in 2024, but the value was relatively unchanged because prices for these commodities were lower on average than in 2023.

More recently, crude oil trade volumes across the U.S.-Canada border have decreased. As of March 6, 2025, Canada’s energy exports to the United States are subject to a 10% tariff, although some crude oil volumes are potentially exempt from tariffs if they qualify for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement preference. Crude oil accounts for the largest component of U.S.-Canada energy trade, and in March and April of this year, the volume of U.S. crude oil imports from Canada and U.S. crude oil exports to Canada fell by about 5% and 28%, respectively, compared with the same period in 2024, according to data from our Petroleum Supply Monthly.

Although we expect any future changes to tariff policy could also affect cross-border energy trade volumes, the United States is likely to remain the preferred destination for Canada’s crude oil given the existing pipeline infrastructure connecting the two markets. Relatively complex U.S. petroleum refineries tend to prefer heavy (dense) crude oils, such as those produced in Canada.

Crude oil. Canada is a key source of U.S. crude oil imports, and Canada was the primary source of U.S. crude oil imports in 2024. U.S. crude oil imports from Canada in 2024 averaged 4.1 million barrels per day (b/d), 5% more than in 2023, partly because the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline project was placed in service. Canada sends crude oil from production centers in Alberta to the Pacific Coast in British Columbia for export by oil tanker to foreign markets, including those in the U.S. West Coast region.

U.S crude oil exports to Canada are small by comparison, averaging 360,000 b/d in 2024. U.S. crude oil exports to Canada are typically low-density and low-sulfur crude oil grades shipped to eastern Canada.

Petroleum products. Petroleum products trade between the United States and Canada declined slightly in 2024 because U.S. petroleum product imports increased by 5% and exports decreased by 8%. The decline in U.S. petroleum product exports to Canada was driven in part by increased motor gasoline supplies in Canada that reduced the need for imports.

Natural gas. The value of natural gas trade fell significantly in 2024 due to lower natural gas prices. U.S. natural gas imports from Canada in 2024 averaged 8.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), 7% more than in 2023, but the value of these imports fell 43% in 2024. Similarly, U.S. natural gas exports to Canada fell by 3% in 2024 to an average of 2.7 Bcf/d, and their value fell by 37%.

Most natural gas traded between the United States and Canada is sent by pipeline. Most U.S. natural gas imports from Canada arrive at the western and central portions of the border, and U.S. natural gas exports are more often sent from northeastern states into Ontario.

Electricity. Electricity trade between the two countries is relatively small compared with trade of other energy sources, but these trade volumes remain a key source of supply under certain market conditions. The value of U.S. electricity imports from Canada accounted for 72% of the total electricity value traded between the two countries.

A previous Today in Energy article explored U.S.-Canada electricity trade in detail. Earlier this year, in response to U.S. tariffs, the Canadian province of Ontario proposed and then retracted a 25% tariff on electricity imports from Canada to Michigan, Minnesota, and New York.

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By Chris Bonasia

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By Jeff Barron

We forecast consumption growth of crude oil and other liquid fuels will slow over the next two years, driven by a slowdown in economic growth, particularly in Asia, in our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

The world economy, measured by GDP, increases 2.8% in 2025 and 2026 in our forecast. Excluding the years of global economic contraction in 2020 and 2009, these economic growth rates would be the lowest since 2008. Considerable uncertainty over world trade, manufacturing, and investment points to downside risk in economic growth, which has a direct effect on oil consumption.

Economic activity uses energy. Increases in population, individual mobility, the shipping of goods, and industrial output result in more oil consumption. Since the year 2000, annual oil consumption growth has been the lowest during the years when the world economy grew by less than 3%. World oil consumption was around 103 million barrels per day (b/d) last year based on preliminary estimates.

The tariffs announced on U.S. trading partners in early April may have already slowed global trade in physical goods, based on preliminary container vessel departure data from Bloomberg. Less global trade will lead to fewer shipments of goods on vessels as well as fewer trucking deliveries and could affect employment and leisure travel as well. All these factors weigh on oil consumption growth.

Although oil consumption will still grow, we forecast it will grow by less than 1 million b/d in 2025 and 2026, which would be three consecutive years below 1 million b/d. During the two decades before the pandemic, world oil consumption grew by an average of 1.3 million b/d.

The biggest forecast slowdown in oil consumption growth is in Asia. Compared with our January STEO, when we forecasted oil consumption growth in Asia to average 0.7 million b/d over 2025 and 2026, we now expect consumption growth will slow to average 0.5 million b/d over those years.

We forecast smaller changes in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Globally, we revised our world oil consumption growth forecasts down by 0.4 million b/d from the January STEO for 2025 and by 0.1 million b/d for 2026.

Our forecast remains highly uncertain and subject to change. Leading economic indicators including vessel traffic, truck tonnage, and airport passenger throughput can provide insight into real-time economic activity and provide clues to global oil consumption trends. Market participants can also follow our Weekly Petroleum Status Report for trends in U.S. petroleum consumption (as measured by product supplied). The United States accounts for about one-fifth of world oil consumption.

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