The report highlights a rapidly evolving energy system, driven by rising electricity demand, continued reliance on natural gas, and the growing complexity of balancing affordability, reliability, and emissions reductions.

The CER’s Energy Futures analysis is not a prediction, but rather a series of scenarios exploring how Canada’s energy mix could evolve under different economic, technological, and policy conditions.

Still, one conclusion is clear: electricity demand is expected to surge, while natural gas remains a key part of the energy system—even as the country works toward lower emissions.

That finding aligns with a growing body of industry and policy analysis pointing to the same dual trend.

Electricity demand in Canada is rising quickly, driven by electrification of transportation, industry, and buildings. A recent industry report described the situation as requiring Canada to “build big again,” warning that the country may need to dramatically expand its grid to keep pace with demand growth.

At the same time, reliability concerns are emerging. A North American reliability assessment cited by Global News found Canada’s power grid is under increasing strain, with demand expected to outpace new supply in several regions later this decade.

Against that backdrop, natural gas is expected to continue playing a significant role, particularly as a flexible source of power generation that can support intermittent renewables like wind and solar.

Canada’s broader energy landscape is already moving in that direction. Federal data shows renewable electricity is growing, but oil and natural gas remain foundational to the economy and energy system.

The CER report suggests this dual-track evolution—more electricity, but continued natural gas use—will define Canada’s energy transition over the coming decades.

That reflects a broader shift in how policymakers and industry are framing the transition: not as a simple replacement of fossil fuels, but as a more complex transformation of the entire energy system.

Recent federal policy signals point the same way. Ottawa has emphasized the need to invest in grid infrastructure and energy systems to maintain affordability and reliability while transitioning to lower-carbon sources.

The challenge, analysts say, is scale.

Electrification alone could require doubling or even tripling parts of Canada’s electricity system, while maintaining reliability during extreme weather events and peak demand periods. At the same time, natural gas infrastructure continues to expand in some regions to meet growing demand and support economic activity.

This creates a tension at the heart of Canada’s energy future.

On one hand, electricity—particularly from low-emission sources—is expected to do much of the heavy lifting in reducing emissions. On the other, natural gas remains critical for reliability, industrial use, and export opportunities.

The CER’s outlook underscores that both trends are likely to unfold simultaneously.

It also reinforces a key message for policymakers: the transition will require significant investment, regulatory reform, and coordination across provinces and sectors.

Canada’s energy system is already diverse and regionally fragmented, with provinces relying on different mixes of hydro, nuclear, fossil fuels, and renewables. Integrating these systems—while expanding capacity and reducing emissions—will be a major undertaking.

The CER’s modelling highlights the uncertainty involved. Long-term energy forecasts depend on assumptions about technology costs, climate policy, global markets, and consumer behaviour, all of which can change rapidly.

Even so, the direction of travel is becoming clearer.

Electricity is poised to become the backbone of a lower-emissions economy. Natural gas, meanwhile, is expected to remain an important—if evolving—part of the mix.

For Canada, the question is no longer whether the energy system will change, but how quickly—and whether the country can build the infrastructure needed to support that transformation.

The post Natural gas, electricity emerging as pivotal forces in Canada’s energy future: CER appeared first on Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future.

The gains reflect strong bitumen and synthetic-crude performance in the oil sands, improved pipeline access, and steady conventional crude production.

In 2024, Canadian crude oil, including bitumen, synthetic crude, light and medium crude, rose 4.3 per cent compared with 2023, reaching an estimated 298.8 million cubic metres, according to national production data from Statistics Canada, as cited by CER’s summary.

Within that total, oil-sands production delivered the bulk of the increase. In situ bitumen extraction and mined bitumen both grew by about 4.3 per cent, while synthetic crude output also rose 4.3 per cent year-on-year. Light and medium conventional crude also rebounded, increasing 2.1 per cent in 2024 after a modest decline the previous year. Heavy crude — a grade favoured by many U.S. refineries — saw a 2.7 per cent increase to a new series high of 26.3 million cubic metres.

These gains mark the fourth consecutive year of rising crude oil production in Canada. Analysts attribute the trend to sustained investment, operational efficiencies in the oil sands and improved logistics, including expanded capacity on key pipelines such as the recently upgraded Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX).

Data released by CER show that elevated production levels have carried into 2025. While the full-year figures are still being compiled, early estimates suggest that Canadian output remains near or above last year’s record pace.

The sustained output through mid-2025 reflects continued strength in oil-sands operations as many producers ramp up post-maintenance and maintain high upgrader utilization. At the same time, favourable access to export infrastructure helps move crude efficiently to market, reducing bottlenecks that had previously limited growth.

Even as global crude prices have faced volatility, Canada’s crude oil exports remained robust. According to CER’s 2024 trade summary, total crude exports were valued at US$100.7 billion, a 5.7 per cent increase over the previous year.

While a growing share of Canadian oil continues to flow to the United States via established pipeline corridors, expanded export capacity, such as that provided by TMX, has opened access to new markets, helping maintain export volumes despite price headwinds.

The shift has also contributed to a reduction in reliance on rail exports, which fell to their lowest volumes in eight years even as overall export records were set.

The gains also raise ongoing questions about how Canada balances fossil-fuel production with climate-policy goals. As oil-sands output rises, so too does the challenge of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions — a core tension in Canada’s long-term energy and environmental transition strategy.

The post Record Crude Output in 2024 Carries Into 2025: Canada Energy Regulator appeared first on Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future.

Prior to the reduction observed in the first quarter of 2025, zero emission vehicles (or ZEVs – including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs] and battery-electric vehicles [BEVs]) continued to increase their share of new vehicles sold in Canada, reaching 15 per cent of total new motor vehicle registrations in 2024 (a proxy for new vehicle sales).^Footnote 1

Total vehicle sales increased by 8 per cent in 2024^Footnote 2 compared to the previous year but remained below pre-pandemic levels. Multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs), a category that includes sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) and crossovers, continued to grow their share in new registrations and now account for close to two out of every three new vehicles sold in Canada (at the expense of passenger cars and vans). The mix of fuels used to power Canadians’ new motor vehicles is also changing, with a clear trend of growing popularity for gasoline hybrids and ZEVs – prior to the Q1 2025 reduction (See Figure 1).

Figure 1: New motor vehicle registrations in Canada, by vehicle type, and by selected regions

ZEVs were responsible for 60 per cent of the net increase in total vehicle registrations in Canada in 2024 and accounted for one in seven new vehicles sold that year. But, depending on the region and the vehicle type, that number was as high as one in three^Footnote 3 or one in four^Footnote 4 new vehicles sold in 2024. For comparison, Canada’s 2024 share of ZEVs in new vehicle sales is higher than that in the United States (around 10 per cent ) but lower than the 22 per cent observed globally.^Footnote 5

Although the Government of Canada currently has an electric vehicle availability standard with ZEV regulated sales targets from 2026 onwards,^Footnote 6 the share and volume of ZEV sales in Canada is likely to be lower in 2025 than that for 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, Canada’s ZEV sales declined by 23% relative to the same quarter in 2024, while their share of total sales was down to 9 per cent .^Footnote 7

Weaker ZEV sales in 2025 is likely to be the case for a variety of reasons, including current levels of economic uncertainty associated with tariffs,^Footnote 8 backlash against one of the top selling ZEV brands (Tesla),^Footnote 9 as well as the recent pause, cancellation, and winddown of EV incentive programs across Canada—including the iZEV program at the federal level (paused in January 2025), British Colombia’s Go Electric Passenger Vehicle Rebate Program (paused in May 2025), and the temporary suspension (February-April 2025) and incoming reduction in financial assistance amounts from Quebec’s Roulez vert program.^Footnote 10

Recent trends in Canadian ZEV sales

General trends in ZEVs adoption across Canada through 2023 were covered in a previous market snapshot. In this snapshot, we use data from the iZEV program^Footnote 11 to provide additional insights on Canada’s ZEV market for the past five years (2020-24).^{Footnote 12Footnote 13}

At the national level, over the 2020-24 period, the split for ZEV sales between BEVs and PHEVs is about 75/25, so for every three BEVs sold, one PHEV is sold.^Footnote 14 For BEVs, the top five models (dominated by Tesla & Hyundai) account for just over one-half of all BEVs sold across Canada. For PHEVs, the top five models (dominated by Mitsubishi & Toyota) account for close to two-thirds of all PHEV sales. (See Table 1 and Figure 2.)

Table 1: Summary statistics for representative ZEV sales in Canada (2020-24)

To further analyze recent trends in new ZEV sales in Canada, Figures 2 and 3 provide key insights. Figure 2 displays the most popular BEV and PHEV models by region. Figure 3 shows the distribution of BEV and PHEV sales across Canada, with filters for individual vehicle make/model combinations. Both figures are based on cumulative numbers for 2020-24 as a default but can be customized for any range between those years.

Figure 2: New motor vehicle registrations in Canada, by vehicle type, and by selected regions

Figure 3: Representative ZEV sales across Canada by region and by ZEV type and make/model

Footnotes:

1. See: New motor vehicle registrations, quarterly, by geographic level. See also: ZEV Council Dashboard
2. Latest available annual data at the time of writing.
3. For example, multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs) in Quebec
4. For passenger cars and MPVs in British Columbia
5. As per: U.S. share of electric and hybrid vehicle sales reached a record in the third quarter – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Global EV Data Explorer – Data Tools – IEA
6. The 2026 target is 20 per cent , and annual targets increase until they reach 100 per cent in 2035. See: Canada’s Electric Vehicle Availability Standard (regulated targets for zero-emission vehicles) – Canada.ca.
7. See: New motor vehicle registrations, quarterly, by geographic level
8. As illustrated by record high levels of economic policy uncertainty (See: Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for Canada (CANEPUINDXM) | FRED | St. Louis Fed) and declining consumer confidence (See: Canada Consumer Confidence)
9. See: Tesla Sales Collapse in Canada’s Québec, Dropping 85 per cent in Q1 – Business Insider
10. The iZEV program was scheduled to conclude on March 31,^st 2025, but ran out of funds by January 12^th, 2025 (See: Questions and answers). See also: BC Gov News and About the Roulez vert Program | Gouvernement du Québec. Unless restarted/refunded, pause of these EV incentive programs are likely to have a negative impact on ZEV registrations in Canada – as it has been the case across other jurisdictions like Germany, New Zealand, and Sweden (See: Some countries are ending support for EVs. Is it too soon? | MIT Technology Review).
11. Program data available at: Statistics on the Incentives for Zero-Emission Vehicles (iZEV) Program
12. According to Statistics Canada, between 2020 and 2024, about 724 thousand ZEVs were registered in Canada. For the same five calendar year timeframe, data is available for 510 thousand new ZEVs that received iZEV program incentives – equivalent to 70 per cent of new ZEV registrations during the same time. As such, the iZEV program data is assumed to be a reasonable representation of market trends for ZEV adoption trends in Canada during this timeframe.
13. The iZEV program was paused in early 2025. Meanwhile, Transport Canada is currently investigating Tesla’s use of the incentive program during its final days (see: Tesla says $43 million in mass iZEV claims was ‘misunderstanding’ | Driving). Given these two developments, data for 2025 is excluded from this analysis
14. This is also confirmed by the ZEV registrations data See: New motor vehicle registrations, quarterly, by geographic level

The post ZEVs in Canada—latest trends, including region- and make/model-level insights appeared first on Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future.

By Christopher Bonasia

A Canadian regulator’s pathway to net-zero is overly optimistic about slow-to-scale technologies, even as reliance on fossil fuels continues, finds a new report—but a course correction is possible through substantial policy upgrades that focus on reducing emissions and energy demand.

Earth scientist David Hughes reviewed the Canada Energy Regulator’s (CER) June 2023 report, which offered scenarios aligned with the country’s net-zero target. It called for major changes in Canada’s energy supply, including reducing oil and gas production, a “several-fold increase” in renewable generation from solar, wind, and biomass, nearly tripling nuclear capacity, and a ramping up of technologies like carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS).

The post CER net-zero plans rife with ‘optimistic assumptions’: Analysis appeared first on Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future.

By Mitchell Beer

Global fossil fuel demand falls steeply, Canadian oil and gas producers are in for a major price squeeze, electricity use more than doubles to become the “cornerstone” of the country’s energy system, and oil sands producers face higher transition costs in the net-zero by 2050 scenarios released in mid-June by the Canada Energy Regulator (CER).

In that future, “the types of energy that Canadians use will be vastly different than what they are today,” CER Chief Economist Jean-Denis Charlebois told a media briefing Tuesday morning. “In practice, this means a lot less fossil fuels.”

The report shows fossil fuel use in Canada falling 56 to 65 per cent from 2021 levels by 2050, with much of the remaining demand coming from industrial facilities outfitted with carbon capture technology, or non-energy uses like asphalt, lubricants, and petrochemicals. But to get there, “every industry, every province, everyone will need to make a difference,” Charlebois said, stressing that climate policies that Canadian governments have adopted to date won’t be enough to hit a net-zero target.

Binnu Jeyakumar, electricity program director at the Calgary-based Pembina Institute, said the analysis underscores the importance of current federal initiatives like the Clean Electricity Regulations and the upcoming cap on oil and gas emissions, both of which are factored into the CER’s net-zero modelling but not its baseline or “business as usual” scenario. “These are steps the government is involved in right now, and they need to get them right in order for us to have a chance of making these scenarios,” she told The Energy Mix.

The report is also “a call to action to provinces to step up and create credible plans to decarbonize their economies in a manner that is affordable, is reliable, and is equitable,” Jeyakumar added.

Crashing Global Demand for Oil and Gas

The scenarios show global export markets for oil and gas dropping sharply, as countries around the world embrace a faster energy transition and tougher climate policies.

Canadian fossil fuel production falls as a result—the only question is how far and how fast. In a scenario where Canada moves faster than other countries on net-zero strategy, oil production peaks in 2029, gas in 2030. In a global net-zero scenario where other countries adopt faster, deeper carbon cuts, gas peaks in 2025, oil in 2026. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports hit their peak by 2030 in both scenarios.

Oil prices in 2050 land between US$24 and $60 per barrel in the two net-zero scenarios, compared to $75 with no further momentum toward net-zero. Gas price drop as much as 59%, from $4.40 to between $1.80 and $2.60 per million cubic feet.

That means “producers of hydrocarbons will need to be increasingly efficient at managing their costs in order to remain competitive,” Charlebois told reporters. Those same producers will have to absorb the cost of carbon capture or other technologies that are built into the CER’s path to net-zero (unless they expect taxpayers to foot the bill).

“The Canada Energy Regulator today acknowledges a simple fact for the first time ever: the world has started moving to net-zero, and as a result, global demand for Canadian oil and gas will inevitably decline,” Climate Action Network-Canada Executive Director Caroline Brouillette said in a release. “With this acknowledgement must come a robust conversation—across government, across the political spectrum, and across jurisdictions—about planning to diversify Canada’s economy to seize the opportunity of the transition, and provide certainty to people and communities.”

Parts of the analysis show far less use of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies if their cost exceeds the CER’s estimates. But the CER also counts on CCUS as an “important decarbonization option” for industrial processes that rely on high-temperature heat or produce high emissions. The Regulator sees CCUS in heavy industry rising to 40 megatonnes by 2040 in the more ambitious net-zero scenario.

Deep Uncertainty for Oil Sands

The CER’s modelling shows some Canadian oil and gas companies coping with low prices and sinking demand for their product. “We factor in that they have their own cost structure, including the cost of decarbonization technologies and the price of carbon for any outstanding emissions,” Charlebois explained. “Then as the projection period unfolds, prices for oil and gas decline, and we model that the producers that are able to be efficient actually make money.”

But those shifts will be particularly challenging for oil sands companies, where “the uncertainty about prices creates an impairment for the incentive to invest and maintain a certain level of production,” he said. “This is not a dynamic some of us were foreseeing a couple of years ago,” when “there wasn’t an acute enough realization of the impact of the cost of decarbonization technologies that are needed for Canada to meet net-zero.”

The end result is that oil sands production grows by 4 to 7% between 2022 and 2030, mostly due to expansions at a small number of existing facilities. After that, the net-zero scenarios show oil prices falling and oil sands production declining in turn, more quickly in the global scenario.

Compared to oil sands operations, “conventional [oil] production fares a bit better” in both net-zero scenarios, Charlebois said.

Overall, “under the global net-zero scenario, oil production declines after 2026, dropping 76% by 2050, challenging the economic viability of many Canadian producers. This matches analysis by the International Energy Agency,” Pembina Institute Executive Director Chris Severson-Baker said in a release. “We congratulate the Canada Energy Regulator for advancing the conversation on how Canada can prosper during the ongoing global energy transition.”

Electricity Replaces Oil and Gas

Under the CER’s two net-zero scenarios, electricity use more than doubles, with many of today’s energy technologies “steadily replaced with devices that do the same things but use electricity instead, like electric vehicles replacing vehicles with internal combustion engines and heat pumps replacing gas and oil furnaces.” The scenarios show the electricity system in 2050 relying primarily on wind, followed by nuclear and hydropower, with smaller contributions for bioenergy, solar, and natural gas plants with carbon capture.

Both of the scenarios point to an electricity grid that is actually net-negative in 2035, with renewable energy as its backbone and use of controversial biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) installations to store more climate pollution than the system emits. Battery storage grows to 1.5 gigawatts in 2030 and 9 GW in 2050. The modelling also looks into how differing assumptions about hydrogen, carbon capture, small modular reactors, direct air capture, and electric vehicle charging patterns could affect the path to net-zero.

The CER foresees new electricity demand from iron and steel production and manufacturing, green hydrogen production, and the eventual introduction of direct air capture (DAC) technologies to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere. Overall energy use decreases 22% because, “in many instances, using electricity is much more efficient than using fossil fuels.”

But “while the types of fuels and technologies that shape our energy system change considerably over the next 27 years, we project little change to the energy services Canadians receive in both net-zero scenarios,” the CER stresses. “Energy services are not the energy or technologies we use, but rather the things that energy enables us to do, like heat our homes, travel from place to place, or run equipment at a business. In 2050, Canadians continue to comfortably heat and cool their homes, get around how they prefer, and have their electricity needs met.”

“One of the things this analysis shows us is that we can decarbonize Canada’s grid while meeting the increasing electricity demand in the country in a reliable manner,” Jeyakumar said. “That’s a worthwhile conclusion to note, because reliability is something people have been wondering about.”

Beginning with the End In Mind

The 134-page report is a departure from the last round of modelling in the CER’s Canada’s Energy Future series, released in December, 2021, which projected the country’s oil production rising through 2032 and was greeted as a recipe for climate failure. Shortly after that release, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson instructed the CER to come up with a net-zero scenario that matched the emission reduction goals in the 2015 Paris agreement, so Charlebois said the agency started this round of analysis with the final outcome already determined.

That led the modellers to an “iterative approach”, where the CER team ran their net-zero models, then kept adjusting the assumptions and rerunning them until they hit the target. “We begin with the end goal in mind: net-zero GHG emissions in 2050, and use our models to identify a pathway to that point,” the report says.

From that starting point, the modellers concluded that a “business as usual” scenario—based on policies Canadian governments had announced or implemented through March, 2023—would drive up oil production by 20% between 2022 and 2050 and fall short of the country’s legislated goal of bringing emissions to net-zero by 2050.

But “ultimately, it’s fair to say the federal government has recognized, as well, that more needs to be done, given the ambitious goal it has set for itself,” Charlebois said.

In the hours after the CER release, some discussion and at least one critique focused on the disconnect between the agency’s net-zero scenarios, the serious technical and economic limitations of some of the technologies it cast as solutions, and the small but scaleable innovations that have been bubbling up in distributed renewables, energy efficiency, and energy storage. But Jeyakumar said the net-zero scenarios are still an important advance.

“This is a major step they’ve taken for 2023, and that should prompt real action from governments,” she said. The gaps in the analysis “would be good things to consider in the next steps, like how can the CER take this and further support the real-world action that needs to take place.”

The post Steep fall for oil and gas, tough times for oil sands as Canada Energy Regulator mapped net-zero future appeared first on Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future.

Alberta has seen significant changes to its electricity supply mix over the past decade. In 2005, electricity generated from wind and solar made up less than 1 per cent of total generation. By 2020, wind and solar made up close to 8 per cent of Alberta’s electricity generation. Compared to the rest of Canada, Alberta has the third highest non-hydro renewable generation (6 000 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2020) after Quebec and Ontario.

Corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) are emerging as a leading source of new renewable additions in Alberta. Under corporate PPAs, companies agree to buy their power directly from producers, allowing purchasing companies to secure a negotiated price for electricity and producers to secure financing for their projects.

Many global corporations are committing to reducing their carbon footprints by using energy from renewable sources. These commitments are driving more projects using corporate PPAs. According to the International Energy Association (IEA), in 2015, about 5 GW of new renewable capacity was added worldwide through corporate PPAs. In 2020, new additions increased almost fivefold, reaching 24 GW. This developing trend has made its way to Alberta.

Over the next few years, Alberta producers could add about 900 megawatts (MW) of wind and solar capacity driven by corporate PPAs. In the past ten years, wind has been the dominant renewable capacity addition in Alberta. Recent PPAs are shifting this trend; by 2023 over 500 MW of new utility scale^Footnote1 solar capacity is expected to come online. These new additions will complement wind projects that are currently under development. With these additions and the retirement of coal capacity, Alberta’s electricity system will look very different in the coming years.

Footnotes

The post CER: Corporate power purchase agreements add renewables in Alberta appeared first on Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future.

Prior to 2008, demand for natural gas in Quebec and Ontario was largely met with domestic production from western Canada transported on the northern Ontario line (NOL) of the TC Canadian Mainline⁽¹⁾. In recent years, the NOL has been supplying less gas to eastern Canada, despite growing demand.

Figure 1: Natural Gas Demand in Ontario and Quebec and Pipeline Flows on the NOL Segment of TC Canadian Mainline

The decline in flows on the NOL since 2006 is largely attributable to growing US Northeast gas production and increased imports of US gas into eastern Canada. Particularly, horizontal drilling and new production technology made gas cheaper to produce and enabled production from the US Appalachian Basin to increase over tenfold between 2010 and 2020, rising from 2.7 Bcf/d (76.5 10⁶m³/d) to 33.7 Bcf/d (954.3 10⁶m³/d).⁽²⁾ New low-cost drilling methods and the Appalachian Basin’s close proximity to eastern Canadian markets made US Northeast gas more competitive in Canada, leading to more US gas imported and consumed in eastern Canadian markets.

Figure 2 shows the decline of exports and growth of imports at three key points in Ontario: Niagara, Chippawa, and Iroquois. Imports at these key border points increased 31 per cent over the past five years with most of the volumes coming through Niagara. Imported gas at these points is supplied with production from the Appalachian Basin.

Figure 2. Natural Gas Exports and Imports at Key Points in Ontario

In addition to the NOL and imports at Chippawa, Niagara, and Iroquois; Ontario and Quebec are supplied with natural gas from storage. Southern Ontario is home to a series of natural gas storage facilities (known as the Dawn Hub⁽³⁾), which is supplied with natural gas from several producing areas in North America, including the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) and the Appalachian Basin. In recent years, the construction of new pipelines in the US (including Rover and Nexus) brought more US production into the Dawn Hub, increasing options for supply for customers in Ontario and Quebec.

Western Canadian gas production grew over the past decade from 14.2 Bcf/d (403.0 10⁶m³/d) in 2010 to 15.4 Bcf/d (436.5 10⁶m³/d) in 2020⁽⁴⁾, and flows have been re-adjusted to other markets in response to displacement in Ontario and Quebec. Particularly, more western Canadian gas now meets increased demand in Alberta from the growing power generation and industrial sector. Similarly, exports of western Canadian gas have now shifted and supply more to the US Pacific Northwest⁽⁵⁾ after being crowded out of the US Northeast. See the Pipeline Capacity and Utilization section of CER’s Canada’s Pipeline System 2021: Understanding CER-Regulated Infrastructure report for more information.

Footnotes:

1. TC. Canadian Mainline transports natural gas produced in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin to consumers in eastern Canada and the United States (U.S.). Since the mid–2000s, some export points on the eastern portion of the Mainline were reversed to become import points that bring natural gas produced in the Appalachian Basin into Canada. In eastern Canada, the TC Canadian Mainline connects with several U.S. natural gas pipelines, including Iroquois Gas Transmission, Portland Natural Gas Transmission System, Tennessee Gas Pipeline, National Fuel Gas Pipeline and Empire State Pipeline. For more information about the TC Canadian Mainline is available.
2. Appalachia Region, Drilling Productivity Report (EIA).
3. Dawn Hub storage has approximately 275 billion cubic feet of storage capacity (Union Gas).
4. Marketable Natural Gas Production in Canada (CER).
5. Kingsgate export point, Foothills Pipeline – Pipeline Profile (CER). See also Natural Gas Annual Trade Summary – 2020 (CER).

The post US natural gas continues to displace western Canadian gas in Quebec, Ontario appeared first on Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future.

Following the annual release of our Canada’s Energy Future 2020: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050 (EF2020), the CER is publishing a series of Market Snapshots that look in greater depth at some of the key outcomes and topics of interest to Canadians.

This snapshot compares the energy use and electricity generation outcomes of the two scenarios in EF2020. These two scenarios differ based on the level of future action, in Canada and around the world, to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

The Evolving Scenario considers the impact of continuing to increase global action on climate change to 2050. In contrast, the Reference Scenario considers a future where action to reduce GHG emissions does not develop beyond measures currently in place. More information on the assumptions underpinning these scenarios is available in the Scenarios and Assumptions section of EF2020.

Following the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Evolving Scenario projects total energy use to decline until 2050. This decline is due to several key factors, including improved energy efficiency of technologies, gradual electrification of the transportation sector, and various policies such as carbon pricing. In the Reference Scenario, lack of additional climate policy action beyond current policies, and less electrification, lead to moderate overall demand growth in the projection (although at levels lower than recent history).

The mix of energy sources Canadians use will continue to change over time (see Figure 1). This change is more substantial in the Evolving Scenario, where demand for fossil fuels substantially decreases over time (in particular, refined petroleum products (RPPs), like gasoline and diesel). In contrast, the Reference Scenario sees demand for RPPs only slightly decreasing to 2050.

Figure 1. Changes in End-use Energy Demand, Relative to 2019

In both scenarios the use of electricity increases over time. By 2050, end-use demand for electricity increases by about 30 per cent compared to 2019 in both scenarios. Importantly, the fuel mix used to generate that electricity will shift over time toward low-carbon sources of energy. However, the rate of this change is different between the Reference and Evolving Scenarios.

In the Evolving Scenario, the share of electricity generated by burning fossil fuels shrinks over time compared to the Reference Scenario in all regions. To illustrate this point, Figure 2 shows shares of fuels used to generate electricity in different regions, for both the Evolving and Reference Scenario.

Figure 2. Shares of Fuels Used to Generate Electricity, Evolving and Reference Scenarios

Electricity generation from renewable resources grow in both scenarios, but more quickly in the Evolving Scenario. At the national level, wind and solar increase their share to about 27 per cent of generation by 2050 in the Evolving Scenario, and about 17 per cent in the Reference Scenario.

In the Evolving Scenario, wind surpasses natural gas generation by the mid-2030s, but remains below gas generation through to 2050 in the Reference Scenario. However, this aggregation hides more significant trends in regional grid generation mixes. For example, in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Nova Scotia, renewables grow much more quickly than the national average, as coal and natural gas powered generating capacity retires.

You can explore EF2020 electricity generation projections in greater detail by checking out our data visualization tool.

The post Comparing Canada’s energy demand trends in alternative energy futures appeared first on Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs)⁽¹⁾ for sale in Canada in 2021 are far more fuel efficient⁽²⁾ than vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEVs). This higher efficiency is largely because electric motors are much more efficient than internal combustion engines (ICEs).

In ICEVs, fuels like diesel and gasoline are ignited so the expanding gas pushes pistons to create motion. However, only 12 per cent to 30 per cent of the energy in gasoline is used to move a vehicle, with most of the remaining energy lost as heat.

BEVs, on the other hand, have electric motors, which use almost all of the energy in electricity to move the vehicle. BEVs also use “regenerative braking”, where, to slow down, the vehicle’s brakes convert kinetic energy (or motion) into electricity and store it in BEV batteries. Altogether, BEVs are far more efficient than ICEVs, with over 77 per cent of the energy in electricity converted into movement when including regenerative braking.

Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) are powered by both an electric motor and an internal combustion engine.⁽³⁾ As a result, they are generally more efficient that ICEVs but less efficient than most BEVs.

Figure 2 shows the fuel economies of BEVs, ICEVs, and HEVs for sale in Canada in 2021 in litres equivalent per 100 km (L_e/100km) driven.⁽⁴⁾ Fuel-economy testing for these vehicles consists of five stages, including some cold weather conditions (with temperatures down to -7 °C).

While ICEV fuel economy can fall 15 per cent at temperatures of about -7 °C, it can fall 30 per cent for HEVs and 39 per cent for BEVs, and can fall even more for BEVs when temperatures are even lower. BEV fuel economy falls more in the cold than ICEV fuel economy, largely because BEVs use extra electricity to heat the BEV’s battery and passenger cabin while ICEVs can use heat that is normally wasted.

Still, even if a BEV’s fuel economy falls by 50 per cent, it would still have better fuel economy than comparable ICEVs.

While more fuel efficient, BEVs currently cost more to buy than comparable ICEVs. This makes it more complicated to determine if a BEV’s lower fuel costs saves an owner money versus buying an ICEV. It is also worth noting that Canada’s personal vehicle fleet is typically heavier and larger than in other countries. This means the average personal vehicle owned by Canadians ranks amongst the worst in the world in fuel economy.

The post Battery EVs more fuel efficient than ICE vehicles: CER appeared first on Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future.

Canada’s Energy Future 2020: Energy Supply and Projections to 2050 (EF2020) is the latest long-term energy outlook from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). The Energy Futures series explores how possible energy futures might unfold for Canadians over the long term under different circumstances.

The EF2020 report analyzed two scenarios, Reference and Evolving. The Evolving Scenario assumes that action to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of our energy system continues to increase at a pace similar to recent history, whereas the Reference Scenario assumes limited action to reduce GHGs beyond policies in place today.

The graph below shows the historical and projected electricity capacity mix for Canada under the Evolving Scenario.

In the Evolving Scenario, hydro is projected to remain the dominant electricity generation source, making up just over 50 per cent of total installed capacity in 2050. Both solar and wind make strong inroads, as from 2018 to 2050 solar and wind capacity increases from 3 and 21 GW to 13 and 41 GW, respectively.

Coal is entirely phased out of the capacity mix over the projection period, decreasing from 9 GW in 2018 to 0 GW in 2050. Coal is replaced by a combination of wind, solar, and natural gas, with natural gas capacity increasing from 23 GW in 2018 to 42 GW in 2050.

In comparison to the Evolving Scenario, the graph of the results from the Reference Scenario is shown below.

The overall results are similar between the two scenarios, with a few key differences. In both scenarios, coal is phased out and hydro remains the dominant source of electricity. Nuclear capacity retirement and refurbishment schedules are assumed to remain similar in both scenarios.

Total installed capacity is 19 per cent higher in the Evolving Scenario, due to higher electrification of end-use demand, relative to the Reference Scenario. One of the key differences between the scenarios is the much larger additions of solar and wind in the Evolving Scenario.

In 2050, wind and solar capacity in the Evolving scenario is 80 per cent higher than the Reference Scenario. This is because the Evolving Scenario assumes lower capital costs for renewables along with a higher carbon price.

Natural gas additions are also 10 per cent higher in the Evolving Scenario, due to both the need for capacity to back up the larger renewable additions and higher overall electricity demand.

The post Renewables dominate future electric capacity additions: CER appeared first on Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future.