Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD is open to acquiring a competing manufacturer and setting up shop to produce cars in Canada—but not if it means entering a joint venture with another company.

“The Shenzhen-based automaker is studying the Canadian market for a potential manufacturing facility, although no decision has been made,” Bloomberg News reports, citing an interview with BYD Executive Vice President Stella Li.

“Perhaps more striking than the Canada factory talk is Li’s candid acknowledgment that BYD is evaluating potential acquisitions of established automakers,” Electrek writes. “Several American, European, and Japanese manufacturers are struggling under the financial strain of maintaining both combustion and electric vehicle product lines simultaneously.”

But while “we’re open to every opportunity we have,” Li said, “I don’t think a JV [joint venture] will work.”

In mid-January, Prime Minister Mark Carney agreed to sharply reduce tariffs on electric vehicle imports from China, while China offered up tariff relief for Canadian canola, peas, pork, and seafood. At the time, Canadian observers predicted lower EV prices and possible long-term advantages for the country’s automotive industrial base.

Canada agreed to slash duties on up to 49,000 Chinese EVs per year to a “most-favoured-nation tariff rate” of 6.1 per cent, Carney’s office said in a release. The imports will amount to less than 3 per cent of annual new vehicle sales in Canada, but “will drive considerable new Chinese joint-venture investment in Canada with trusted partners to protect and create new auto manufacturing careers for Canadian workers, and ensure a robust buildout of Canada’s EV supply chain,” the PMO said.

Days later, Carney said he saw the deal as an opportunity for Ontario’s automaking heartland. “We’ve had direct conversations directly from the Chinese companies… with explicit interest and intention to partner with Canadian companies,” he told media during a stopover in Doha, Qatar. “We’ll see what comes to pass. This is an opportunity for Ontario. It’s an opportunity for Ontario workers, opportunity for Canada, done in a controlled way with a modest start.”

Now, Bloomberg says BYD is looking at expanding its reach in overseas markets where it can repeat the “Brazil model”, a marketing and sales approach that has worked well for it in South America and Europe. “Buying existing production capacity with trained work forces is faster and cheaper than building greenfield—and BYD appears to be applying the same logic globally,” Electrek explains.

One place the company isn’t considering an expansion is the United States, a “complicated environment” where tariffs on Chinese-made vehicles exceed 100 per cent and connected car technology is banned.

BYD’s sales fell 36 per cent, to 400,241 vehicles, in the first two months of this year, both news outlets say. “But exports gained momentum, and the company is targeting 1.3 million overseas vehicle sales for the full year,” Electrek reports. “Li said BYD’s recently launched next-generation Blade Battery and ultra-fast flash charging architecture, capable of delivering up to 1,500 kW, will help reverse the domestic sales dip.”

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EIA’s analysis shows that about 22 per cent of light-duty vehicles sold in the United States in 2025 were electrified in some form — including hybrids, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) — up from 20 per cent in 2024. However, the growth trajectory was uneven: hybrid electric vehicles continued gaining market share, while battery electric and plug-in hybrid sales declined over the year.

The divergence reflects seismic changes in tax policy. Two major incentives — the New Clean Vehicle Credit and the Qualified Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit, each worth up to US $7,500 — expired on September 30, 2025 as part of broader tax changes enacted by Congress. The credits had long been a cornerstone of U.S. EV policy, lowering purchase costs for consumers and supporting demand.

Industry analysts widely anticipated a drop in EV sales once those incentives ended. A market expert quoted by Reuters in September said the impending tax credit expiration would likely cause a “short-term dip” in EV sales as buyers rushed to close deals before the deadline.

Indeed, EIA’s figures show that BEVs reached a record share of 12 per cent of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales in September 2025, just before the tax credits disappeared. Afterwards, BEV sales fell to less than 6 per cent in each of the remaining months of the year, marking the first annual decline in battery electric vehicle sales and share in the United States.

Policy shifts and market reactions

Industry reporting confirms a sharp hit to EV demand post-credit expiry. A Yahoo Finance analysis found that EV sales at U.S. dealerships plunged by as much as 74 per cent from peak weekly levels after the federal tax incentive ended, highlighting the role subsidies played in consumer buying decisions.

Automakers have felt the impact. According to The Wall Street Journal, Ford Motor Co. saw electric vehicle sales decline sharply in November 2025, with BEV units down 61 per cent year-over-year as demand softened following the credit’s expiration. At the same time, hybrid sales — which were not eligible for the tax credit — increased, reflecting shifting buyer behaviour.

General Motors has also reported financial strain, with roughly US $6 billion in charges tied to declining EV sales and the loss of policy incentives, according to Associated Press reporting. GM’s ambitious electrification plans have been disrupted by a combination of subsidy cuts and looser emissions standards.

Why hybrids are gaining ground

Unlike battery electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles do not plug into the grid and rely on internal combustion engines coupled with electric motors. They were never eligible for the 2025 federal tax credits, yet hybrids continued to gain share throughout the year, buoyed by fuel-efficiency advantages and growing consumer comfort with electrified drivetrains.

Analysts point to price and convenience as key drivers. With federal incentives gone and many EV sticker prices remaining high — the average new EV transaction price exceeded US $60,000 in 2025 — hybrids have become an attractive alternative for mainstream buyers not ready to pay a premium for all-electric range.

Broader industry context

The U.S. trend contrasts with global EV markets, where overall plug-in sales continued to grow in 2025. Benchmark data indicates that global EV sales rose roughly 20 per cent, led by strong growth in European and Chinese markets, even as U.S. EV sales lagged due to fading incentives and weaker policy support.

China in particular remains dominant: EVs accounted for a majority share of the country’s automotive market in 2025, matched with aggressive local incentives and production scale. Those conditions continue to drive China’s outsized footprint in global EV manufacturing and sales.

Future outlook

Looking ahead, industry watchers say the U.S. EV market may stabilize or rebound if states, automakers, or future federal policy introduce new incentives or regulatory support. However, the 2025 experience highlights how sensitive EV adoption remains to public policy and cost incentives — a lesson likely to shape debates on electrification strategy and climate goals in 2026 and beyond.

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By Daan Walter, Kingsmill Bond, and Sam Butler-Sloss

2025 was a year of new electric thinking. We saw many energy analysts and writers argue that there is more to the energy transition than just a shift from dirty to clean energy. It came in the form of McCormick and D’Amico’s The Electric Slide, to the IEA’s declaration of an Age of Electricity, to growing discussion of electro-industrialism, the rise of a New Joule Order, and the widespread use of the term electrostates, a term we introduced two years ago that gained broad uptake last year.

We laid out the facts in our September report, The Electrotech Revolution, which we also presented at DERVOS last fall. As we enter 2026, we compiled ten key insights from our work that we think are particularly important this year.

1. This is a technology revolution

The energy system is not just decarbonizing, it is entering a new technological age. A new generation of technologies is coming together: on the supply side technologies like solar and wind, demand technologies like EVs and heat pumps, and connection technologies like batteries, grids and software.

Each of these technologies is falling in price and rising exponentially in deployment. Individually, each is disruptive. But together, they form something more powerful. As supply finds demand and connections enable both, they reinforce each other on the way up. This is why we speak of not just a transition but a technology revolution.

This matters for 2026. Even as decarbonization slips down political agendas, the self-reinforcing nature of this technological transition does not stop. The revolution has its own momentum.

2. It brings energy abundance

Human history has seen only a handful of leaps in how much energy is at our disposal. Foragers relied on muscle and fire. Farmers unlocked the energy stored in crops and livestock, multiplying available energy by a hundred. Fossil fuels gave us another fifty-fold increase by tapping ancient sunlight buried underground.

Electrotech promises a similar leap. The sun delivers more energy to Earth every five days than all our fossil fuel reserves combined. As we move to tap into this solar resource, our energy system not only becomes more abundant, but also more immediate; moving from burning old sunshine to capturing it in real time. This is a shift from foraging fossil fuels to harvesting the sun.

As we are sure to see a year full of energy abundance debates in 2026, it is worth noting which path actually delivers on that promise.

3. It has been a long time coming

The rise of electrotech is not a recent trend. It has been coming for over a century. Electrification began in the 1880s, when electric lights and motors started replacing flame and steam. From there, electricity demand grew at 5-7% annually after 1900, as lights, industrial machinery, and household appliances spread across the developed world.

The mid-20th century brought televisions, refrigerators, and washing machines into homes. Then came the information age—semiconductors powering mainframes, then personal computers, then smartphones. The clean lab manufacturing techniques developed for chips eventually made mass production of solar panels and battery cells possible.

Now a century of evolution is turning the 2020s into a decade of revolution. This trend has been running longer than any administration or political setback. It comes with a century of momentum.

4. It inherits the momentum of the IT revolution

In many ways, electrotech is a child of the IT revolution. The precision processes that mass-produce chips and smartphones now build battery cells and solar panels. The same factories, often with the same workers trained by firms like Apple, now power electrotech’s rise. As McCormick and D’Amico argue in The Electric Slide, the tech stack underpinning electrotech is essentially the same as for digital technology. There is more in common between a laptop and a solar panel than between a solar panel and a gas power plant.

This explains why electrotech scales so fast: it inherits decades of manufacturing know-how and cost curves from IT.

It also reveals a strategic paradox visible in 2026. IT hardware and electrotech are the same industrial family. They share supply chains, manufacturing capabilities, network effects, and require the same abundant electricity. Building one without the other is incoherent. The current Trump administration push for AI datacenters and manufacturing automation while throttling EVs and solar exemplifies this disconnect. So does the EU’s embrace of electrotech even as it inhibits the AI rollout with complex regulation. Today’s new information technologies and electro technologies feed off each other. Those that starve one will weaken both.

5. The ceiling of the possible is far above our heads

We are nowhere close to the technical limits of electrotech. We already know how to run grids with 70-80% renewables at costs comparable to fossil fuels. We can electrify around three-quarters of final energy demand with technologies that exist today or are nearly commercial. Renewables and electrification could more than triple from current levels before reaching what we know is achievable.

And the ceiling keeps rising. As frontrunner regions push grids toward 90% renewables and innovators bring electrotech into aviation, shipping, and heavy industry, the technical frontier expands. By the time most catch up to today’s ceiling, the pioneers will have raised it once more.

In 2026, expect more narratives about slowing deployment in leading markets. But most of the world is still catching up. This catch-up dynamic alone sustains momentum for years to come.

6. The physics of change

Fossil systems are inherently wasteful, losing about two-thirds of their primary energy to heat and friction. Electrotech is built on efficient electricity: EV drivetrains convert around 80-90% of input into motion, while heat pumps deliver three to five times more heat than the electricity they consume. Wind and solar avoid thermal losses altogether. Physics itself tilts the system toward electrons.

This efficiency advantage extends to materials. Electrotech uses eternal sunshine and wind rather than one-time use fossil fuels; therefore it needs roughly 50 times fewer raw materials than fossil equivalents. This gap widens as innovation continues to improve efficiency and reduce material requirements. We should expect 2026 to be another year of such innovations and commercializations—sodium batteries being one example to watch this year.

7. The economics of change

Electrotech and fossil fuels follow opposite economic trajectories. As demand for electrotech rises, new, more efficient factories lower production costs through learning and economies of scale. Solar, wind, and batteries sit on learning curves with costs falling about 20% per doubling. Solar module costs have dropped 99% since 1980, wind by 80%, batteries by 99%.

Fossil fuels work differently. As demand rises, new, more expensive fields must be developed, driving prices up. After decades of these opposing trajectories, we have recently hit cost parity for key electrotech—solar, battery storage, and EVs. Today that means solar-plus-storage in India at $40/MWh and Chinese EVs below $10,000.

This matters acutely for 2026. Affordability is the dominant concern across politics and policy. Five years ago, affordability pressures would have pointed toward fossils. Today, they point toward electrotech. The crossover has happened. The cheaper path is now the electric path.

8. The geopolitics of change

Three-quarters of the world relies on fossil fuel imports. Get cut off, and your economy grinds to a halt. Countries have fought wars over energy access and structured foreign policy around securing supply.

Those risks are rising. Trade tensions are escalating. Geopolitical fractures are deepening. In this environment, every country is looking for alternatives.

At some point, they will look up. The sun delivers energy everywhere. 92% of countries have the potential to generate at least ten times their own energy demand from domestic renewables. With electrotech, every country can become energy independent.

If 2026 is indeed going to be a year of rising geopolitical tensions as many expect, we should expect countries to accelerate electrotech deployment as a strategic priority. Those that sow electrotech will reap sovereignty.

9. Electrotech is a tool for rapid development

For decades, development meant following the fossil path. Rich countries burned coal and oil to industrialize, and emerging economies assumed they would need to do the same. Electrotech allows them to skip that step entirely.

The fastest change is now happening in emerging markets. ASEAN leapfrogged the US in electrification in 2023. Solar deployment has surged across Asia, Latin America, and Africa. In many countries, solar has gone from the smallest to the largest source of new capacity in less than a decade.

The pattern makes sense. Some 80% of the world’s population lives in the sunbelt, where solar resources are abundant and cheap. For countries building energy systems from scratch or expanding rapidly, solar plus storage offers a faster, cheaper path than fossil infrastructure. Development no longer requires a fossil-first pathway. Electrotech is becoming the foundation for growth.

We should expect more emerging market leapfrogs in 2026 as well as a pullback from fossil fuels. As solar and storage costs continue to fall, emerging economies will increasingly look to exit expensive LNG contracts in favor of domestic renewables.

10. Electrification is the geopolitical differentiator today

The world is rapidly building new electricity supply. Solar and wind capacity is being deployed at record pace. But supply alone does not determine competitive advantage. Today, the differentiator is electrification; putting that new supply to work by electrifying transport, heating, and industry.

China has grasped this. It is scaling both supply and demand simultaneously: solar farms and EVs, wind turbines and industrial electrification. This approach, which we call the electrostate model, uses domestic markets to drive down electrotech costs and improve quality, then capture export markets with superior products.

The West is deploying substantial new supply. But electrification of demand has lagged. Solar and wind without EVs, heat pumps, and industrial electrification is an incomplete strategy. As we move through 2026, the question is whether Western economies will match China’s integrated approach, or continue building only half the system.

Entering the second half of the decisive decade

For the first time, humanity can harness the power of the sun directly, at scale, and in real time. After a century of evolution, electrotech is breaking through in a decade of revolution.

The 2020s are this decisive decade. This is the decade when manufacturing reaches global scale, when uptake s-curves enter their steep ascent, and when costs cross over from more expensive to cheaper than incumbents. We have just passed cost parity for solar, batteries, and EVs. From here, the economic logic only strengthens—as do the physics and geopolitics drivers of change.

Countries and companies that recognize this shift will shape the next era of global competition. Those who resist will find themselves left behind. The revolution has its own momentum. 2026 is another year deeper into it.

For more, watch the conversation from DERVOS on Energy Dominance and the Electrostate featuring Daan Walter.

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By Christopher Bonasia

Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD was set earlier this year to release a model that will be able to drive up to 400 kilometres after just five minutes of charging, though experts warn of infrastructure challenges.

The company reported a record annual revenue of US$170 billion in 2024, overtaking Tesla’s $155.5 billion. These developments highlight the widening gap between the two companies as BYD’s technology continues to surpass Tesla’s, writes ABC News.

Riding on its success, BYD is looking to expand its production facilities in Europe by building a third manufacturing plant in Germany, which will help it reach European customers without the extra cost of import tariffs.

BYD’s new charging capacity is made possible by an “all liquid-cooled megawatt flash charging terminal system.” The charging system is matched with a 1500-volt next-generation silicon carbide power chip and a flash-charging battery with ultra-fast ion channels, which halves the battery’s internal resistance.

Those innovations enable drivers to recharge their vehicles at a rate of about two kilometres per second, faster than any other passenger EV. The next closest competitor—Li Auto, also based in China—can reach a 500-kilometre range in 12 minutes, while Tesla superchargers can charge to a 275-kilometre range in 15 minutes, Bloomberg writes.

Two vehicles with this capacity will be launched in April—the Han L and the Tang L sport utility vehicle. Starting prices for these options are C$53,224 (270,000 yuan) and $55,196 (280,000 yuan). In comparison, the extended range option for BYD’s Han EV costs $45,300 (229,800 yuan). Prices for a Tesla Model Y start at $64,990 in Canada.

The fast charging time will help some buyers move past anxiety over EV wait times, InsideEVs Plugged-In Podcast co-hosts Patrick George and Tim Levin said. But they added that the really important point about BYD’s progress isn’t just that its technology is better than that of other companies, but that it is available in vehicles that are accessible for average consumers. BYD’s cars are sold for a good value in China even though they are more expensive or unavailable in other countries because of high tariffs. George said BYD EVs are unassuming and normal, instead of looking like “high-tech spaceships.”

“It’s so crazy how they’ve normalized this stuff,” he added.

BYD has plans to install 4,000 of its chargers across China, but has not provided specifics on how that will unfold. Some experts say that while the charging systems can work on their own, it may be difficult to integrate them into the grid because they have large power needs that could demand costly grid connection updates. The advanced liquid-cooled system itself is likely to be more expensive than other chargers, which could mean higher charging prices for drivers, reports Wired.

Others question exactly how useful the new system will be, given that most EV drivers are able to charge their vehicles at night when charging times are less relevant. The super-fast charging could also pose some safety concerns and might affect the long-term durability of the battery, writes Bloomberg.

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By Tik Root

The deals on used electric vehicles right now are shocking.

In 2017, a brand-new Nissan Leaf carried a price tag of about $35,000; today, that same car is yours for less than $6,500. This story repeats across the market. A Hyundai Kona that rolled off the showroom floor in 2021 for more than $43,000 has fallen below $16,000. Even newer models aren’t spared from this kind of depreciation. Take the 2024 Hyundai Ioniq 5: it debuted with a sticker close to $62,000, but after 8,000 miles and less than 12 months on the road, at least one is selling for around $37,000. The drops are even starker in the luxury segment. An Audi e-Tron GT supercar that cost about $124,000 just three years ago is now offered at $52,000. All of this is before government incentives that could bring costs even lower.

In August, plummeting prices sparked a 59 per cent year-over-year surge in used EV sales, according to the research firm Cox Automotive. But the trend also begs the question whether even well-priced used EVs are a bad investment in an asset that will continue to depreciate at an alarming rate. Experts say that depends on the car, and on how the buyer would use it.

“I would buy one now,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive. In August, used electric cars typically cost about $900 more than similar gas-powered ones, she added, which is the lowest gap on record. It’s a premium that is likely easily made up in gas savings and far lower maintenance costs because electric  won’t need, say, oil changes. “There’s a really strong value proposition to buying a used EV,” Valdez Streaty said.

But even a deep discount may not be enough for some people to shake off their earlier experiences, or perceptions, about electric cars, said John Helveston, an engineer and professor at George Washington University who studies technology adoption. As he put it, “if you bought a used Leaf even a few years ago, your experience was likely not great.”

That’s because, until recently, batteries often deteriorated rapidly, which led to untenable driving ranges and often regrettable purchases. But Helveston said the landscape has changed dramatically, with a trend toward more efficient technologies and bigger packs that don’t degrade as fast. Still, most warranties only kick in once the capacity has fallen below 70 per cent. So, Helveston said, the car’s original range remains critical and is one of the best indications of how quickly it might depreciate.

“If you’re sub-200 miles as your new starting range, they don’t hold their value very well,” he said. Conversely, that’s why Teslas — with ranges in the 300 or 400 mile realm — have historically depreciated considerably more slowly.

The other piece of good news is that, although research, by Helveston and others, has shown that EVs depreciate much more quickly than gas-powered vehicles in the first two to three years; after that, the rates of decline converge and all cars lose value at a similar pace.

Incentives are another factor to consider. Right now an income-qualified buyer can get up to $4,000 federal tax credit on a used EV costing under $25,000, or as much as $7,500 for a new one. Many states, municipalities and utilities offer rebates as well. But the federal credits go away at the end of month, which could cause electric car prices to inch upwards. On the other hand, a loophole in those incentives led to a glut of leased electric vehicles, more than a million of which are set to hit the used market within the next few years -— which could exert downward pressure on prices. It’s unclear how all those elements will interact.

“There’s no crystal ball on this,” said Kevin Roberts, director of economic and market intelligence at website CarGurus, via e-mail. “But given recent trends, we don’t expect to see the price volatility in used EVs that we’ve seen in the past.”

The bad news is that shopping for used EVs can be a bit of black box.

“With a gas car, between age and mileage you know a lot about that car. In the EV, people have no clue,” said Helveston. Battery health, he explained, is more linked to how the car was used than its age or mileage. If, for example, an owner only used super-fast Level 3 chargers, the battery would take much more of a beating than someone who primarily charged in their garage. Plus, even with recent improvements in battery tech, it’s still hard to predict exactly how a battery will perform five or 10 years out.

“There is this huge gap of information and because of that there’s a hesitance to buy it,” said Helveston. There are, however, some things people can do to mitigate those concerns. The first is to ask the dealer, or seller, to charge a car to 100 per cent capacity before the test drive. Then compare the range on the dashboard to the manufacturer’s stated figure when the car was new. That should provide a rough approximation of remaining battery capacity. After a few years, the pack should retain 90 to 95 per cent of its rating.

Valdez Streaty, at Cox, said that it’s not uncommon for dealers to either not have, or not know, how to access battery health information, though that process may become more standardized in coming years. In the meantime, she says, the used car auction that Cox operates — Manheim — rates batteries on a scale of 1 to 100. It’s the largest auction network in North America and is used by many dealers, which may be able to pass along any information they receive about the battery.

“Definitely you want something that’s going to be above 80 per cent,” she said.

The other option is to ignore range or depreciation and buy the cheapest car possible and drive it into the ground. This works well for people who only need a car for around town — most people don’t drive more than 40 miles a day — and don’t care about features. This is what Helveston did when he bought a ten-year-old Leaf off Facebook Marketplace for $5,000. It had a remaining range of just 60 miles, but he drives no more than 30 per day.

“The miles are double what I need,” he said, and he doesn’t pay for gas or oil changes either. “If it dies on me, I only invested five grand in it and I’ll buy another one.”

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Prior to the reduction observed in the first quarter of 2025, zero emission vehicles (or ZEVs – including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs] and battery-electric vehicles [BEVs]) continued to increase their share of new vehicles sold in Canada, reaching 15 per cent of total new motor vehicle registrations in 2024 (a proxy for new vehicle sales).^Footnote 1

Total vehicle sales increased by 8 per cent in 2024^Footnote 2 compared to the previous year but remained below pre-pandemic levels. Multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs), a category that includes sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) and crossovers, continued to grow their share in new registrations and now account for close to two out of every three new vehicles sold in Canada (at the expense of passenger cars and vans). The mix of fuels used to power Canadians’ new motor vehicles is also changing, with a clear trend of growing popularity for gasoline hybrids and ZEVs – prior to the Q1 2025 reduction (See Figure 1).

Figure 1: New motor vehicle registrations in Canada, by vehicle type, and by selected regions

ZEVs were responsible for 60 per cent of the net increase in total vehicle registrations in Canada in 2024 and accounted for one in seven new vehicles sold that year. But, depending on the region and the vehicle type, that number was as high as one in three^Footnote 3 or one in four^Footnote 4 new vehicles sold in 2024. For comparison, Canada’s 2024 share of ZEVs in new vehicle sales is higher than that in the United States (around 10 per cent ) but lower than the 22 per cent observed globally.^Footnote 5

Although the Government of Canada currently has an electric vehicle availability standard with ZEV regulated sales targets from 2026 onwards,^Footnote 6 the share and volume of ZEV sales in Canada is likely to be lower in 2025 than that for 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, Canada’s ZEV sales declined by 23% relative to the same quarter in 2024, while their share of total sales was down to 9 per cent .^Footnote 7

Weaker ZEV sales in 2025 is likely to be the case for a variety of reasons, including current levels of economic uncertainty associated with tariffs,^Footnote 8 backlash against one of the top selling ZEV brands (Tesla),^Footnote 9 as well as the recent pause, cancellation, and winddown of EV incentive programs across Canada—including the iZEV program at the federal level (paused in January 2025), British Colombia’s Go Electric Passenger Vehicle Rebate Program (paused in May 2025), and the temporary suspension (February-April 2025) and incoming reduction in financial assistance amounts from Quebec’s Roulez vert program.^Footnote 10

Recent trends in Canadian ZEV sales

General trends in ZEVs adoption across Canada through 2023 were covered in a previous market snapshot. In this snapshot, we use data from the iZEV program^Footnote 11 to provide additional insights on Canada’s ZEV market for the past five years (2020-24).^{Footnote 12Footnote 13}

At the national level, over the 2020-24 period, the split for ZEV sales between BEVs and PHEVs is about 75/25, so for every three BEVs sold, one PHEV is sold.^Footnote 14 For BEVs, the top five models (dominated by Tesla & Hyundai) account for just over one-half of all BEVs sold across Canada. For PHEVs, the top five models (dominated by Mitsubishi & Toyota) account for close to two-thirds of all PHEV sales. (See Table 1 and Figure 2.)

Table 1: Summary statistics for representative ZEV sales in Canada (2020-24)

To further analyze recent trends in new ZEV sales in Canada, Figures 2 and 3 provide key insights. Figure 2 displays the most popular BEV and PHEV models by region. Figure 3 shows the distribution of BEV and PHEV sales across Canada, with filters for individual vehicle make/model combinations. Both figures are based on cumulative numbers for 2020-24 as a default but can be customized for any range between those years.

Figure 2: New motor vehicle registrations in Canada, by vehicle type, and by selected regions

Figure 3: Representative ZEV sales across Canada by region and by ZEV type and make/model

Footnotes:

1. See: New motor vehicle registrations, quarterly, by geographic level. See also: ZEV Council Dashboard
2. Latest available annual data at the time of writing.
3. For example, multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs) in Quebec
4. For passenger cars and MPVs in British Columbia
5. As per: U.S. share of electric and hybrid vehicle sales reached a record in the third quarter – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Global EV Data Explorer – Data Tools – IEA
6. The 2026 target is 20 per cent , and annual targets increase until they reach 100 per cent in 2035. See: Canada’s Electric Vehicle Availability Standard (regulated targets for zero-emission vehicles) – Canada.ca.
7. See: New motor vehicle registrations, quarterly, by geographic level
8. As illustrated by record high levels of economic policy uncertainty (See: Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for Canada (CANEPUINDXM) | FRED | St. Louis Fed) and declining consumer confidence (See: Canada Consumer Confidence)
9. See: Tesla Sales Collapse in Canada’s Québec, Dropping 85 per cent in Q1 – Business Insider
10. The iZEV program was scheduled to conclude on March 31,^st 2025, but ran out of funds by January 12^th, 2025 (See: Questions and answers). See also: BC Gov News and About the Roulez vert Program | Gouvernement du Québec. Unless restarted/refunded, pause of these EV incentive programs are likely to have a negative impact on ZEV registrations in Canada – as it has been the case across other jurisdictions like Germany, New Zealand, and Sweden (See: Some countries are ending support for EVs. Is it too soon? | MIT Technology Review).
11. Program data available at: Statistics on the Incentives for Zero-Emission Vehicles (iZEV) Program
12. According to Statistics Canada, between 2020 and 2024, about 724 thousand ZEVs were registered in Canada. For the same five calendar year timeframe, data is available for 510 thousand new ZEVs that received iZEV program incentives – equivalent to 70 per cent of new ZEV registrations during the same time. As such, the iZEV program data is assumed to be a reasonable representation of market trends for ZEV adoption trends in Canada during this timeframe.
13. The iZEV program was paused in early 2025. Meanwhile, Transport Canada is currently investigating Tesla’s use of the incentive program during its final days (see: Tesla says $43 million in mass iZEV claims was ‘misunderstanding’ | Driving). Given these two developments, data for 2025 is excluded from this analysis
14. This is also confirmed by the ZEV registrations data See: New motor vehicle registrations, quarterly, by geographic level

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Road transport accounts for approximately 18 per cent of total global CO₂ emissions and is linked to a significant share of urban air pollution, as around 94 per cent of its energy consumption globally is based on fossil fuels. Decarbonising this sector requires an accelerated electrification of light-duty vehicles, buses, trucks, two- and three-wheelers, combined with an expansion of charging infrastructure and renewables-based electricity.

For the world to be on track for achieving the Paris Climate targets, the electric vehicle (EV) fleet would need to increase eightfold in the next five years. By 2050, EVs would need to account for over 90 per cent of global cars on the road. In 2024, there was one EV in every five cars sold. By the end of that year, global EV sales had passed 17 million, rising from just 650,000 in 2015. Most of the EVs and chargers are deployed in China, Europe and the United States while the majority of developing markets continue to lag behind due to existing barriers.

One significant barrier is that currently, EVs and charging infrastructure are beyond the affordability of developing markets, compounded by limited access to capital and finance. Targeted policies can address these and other barriers, such as financial and fiscal measures which can help improve the affordability of EVs and chargers.

The following are five policies and measures to enable and accelerate the electrification of road transport in developing countries:

1. Setting ambitious targets for EV and charging infrastructureThe adoption of ambitious targets for EV sales is an important lever to promote the transition. Based on the consideration of available resources and local context, these national or subnational targets can send clear signals to investors, industrial players and potential consumers, as well as guide investments in the needed infrastructures and improve market confidence.Many countries and cities have announced such ambitions. Cabo Verde has set 100 per cent EV targets for new passenger cars by 2035. Similarly, Chile has adopted targets for 100 per cent EV sales for cars and public buses by 2035. Hainan Province (China) has set 100 per cent EV targets for private car sales by 2030, aiming to have 45 per cent of all cars on this island to be electric by that time.
2. Promoting sustainable mobility in citiesThe rapidly growing urban populations in developing markets will result in more intense transport activities and a higher level of urban air pollution linked with fossil fuels. Sustainable urban mobility requires not only the electrification of vehicles, but also the reduction of private driving. To promote sustainable mobility, cities can adopt various policies and measures. For example, promoting mixed-use urban development or compact urban design to reduce urban travel needs. When private driving cannot be avoided, cities can also implement context-based measures, such as licence plate restrictions, vehicle quotas, low-emission zones, and public parking regulations. Incentives can also be given to encourage the use of electric vehicles, consequently driving the demand for the market.
3. Harnessing development financing for electric public transport projectsModern public transport systems offer a more energy-efficient option compared to private driving, and remain the most affordable and sustainable option for communities and households that cannot afford cars. They connect people with more education opportunities, jobs, and other economic activities, and therefore playing a crucial role in sustainable development.The procurement of electric bus fleets and related charging infrastructure often exceeds the financial capacity of developing countries. In this case, financing by development banks or multilateral development institutions can be utilised to support the deployment of electric buses and relevant charging infrastructure in these countries.In Bogota (Colombia), the Inter-American Development Bank has provided loans for replacing diesel buses with electric ones. In Dakar (Senegal), the World Bank has provided finance for the deployment of a fully electric bus rapid transit system. In India, ADB and AIIB have provided loans to support the procurement and maintenance of 650 buses, as well as related charging infrastructure.
4. Supporting innovative business models for electric two- and three-wheelersElectric two- and three-wheelers are more affordable than cars. They play a significant role in meeting people’s essential transport needs in developing markets, such as daily commuting, taxis, and deliveries. In addition, they offer industrial development opportunities through localised manufacturing and vehicle assembly.But affordability and access to financing for these types of vehicles can be difficult in developing markets. Innovative business models, including battery-leasing and battery-swapping models, can address the high upfront costs issue and reduce consumers’ concerns over battery maintenance or degradation.In Kenya and Thailand, the battery swapping business makes electric two-wheelers more cost-effective than their fossil-fuel counterparts. In China, battery swapping networks have enabled delivery drivers to get their two- and three-wheelers fully charged in less than 1 minute.
5. Addressing the needs of vulnerable groups affected by the transition processIn developing markets, the shift to electric vehicles may affect marginalised groups who rely on the fossil fuel-based road transport value chain, and may not be able to afford the high purchase costs of the electric alternatives. These groups – which include small transport service operators and individual workers – may also face significant income reduction during the transition process, causing some individuals and families to lose their livelihood.To support these groups and meet their needs, policymakers should employ a more inclusive consultation and trust-building process, involving vulnerable groups working in both formal and informal sectors. An inclusive process that considers everyone’s needs and perspectives can result in affordable and accessible plans that secure people’s livelihoods, and ensure a just transition to sustainable transport.

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By Chris Bonasia

Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD is set to release a model that will be able to drive up to 400 kilometres after just five minutes of charging, though experts warn of infrastructure challenges.

The company reported a record annual revenue of US$170 billion in 2024, overtaking Tesla’s $155.5 billion. These developments highlight the widening gap between the two companies as BYD’s technology continues to surpass Tesla’s, writes ABC News.

Riding on its success, BYD is looking to expand its production facilities in Europe by building a third manufacturing plant in Germany, which will help it reach European customers without the extra cost of import tariffs.

BYD’s new charging capacity is made possible by an “all liquid-cooled megawatt flash charging terminal system.” The charging system is matched with a 1500-volt next-generation silicon carbide power chip and a flash-charging battery with ultra-fast ion channels, which halves the battery’s internal resistance.

Those innovations enable drivers to recharge their vehicles at a rate of about two kilometres per second, faster than any other passenger EV. The next closest competitor—Li Auto, also based in China—can reach a 500-kilometre range in 12 minutes, while Tesla superchargers can charge to a 275-kilometre range in 15 minutes, Bloomberg writes.

Two vehicles with this capacity will be launched in April—the Han L and the Tang L sport utility vehicle. Starting prices for these options are C$53,224 (270,000 yuan) and $55,196 (280,000 yuan). In comparison, the extended range option for BYD’s Han EV costs $45,300 (229,800 yuan). Prices for a Tesla Model Y start at $64,990 in Canada.

The fast charging time will help some buyers move past anxiety over EV wait times, InsideEVs Plugged-In Podcast co-hosts Patrick George and Tim Levin said. But they added that the really important point about BYD’s progress isn’t just that its technology is better than that of other companies, but that it is available in vehicles that are accessible for average consumers. BYD’s cars are sold for a good value in China even though they are more expensive or unavailable in other countries because of high tariffs. George said BYD EVs are unassuming and normal, instead of looking like “high-tech spaceships.”

“It’s so crazy how they’ve normalized this stuff,” he added.

BYD has plans to install 4,000 of its chargers across China, but has not provided specifics on how that will unfold. Some experts say that while the charging systems can work on their own, it may be difficult to integrate them into the grid because they have large power needs that could demand costly grid connection updates. The advanced liquid-cooled system itself is likely to be more expensive than other chargers, which could mean higher charging prices for drivers, reports Wired.

Others question exactly how useful the new system will be, given that most EV drivers are able to charge their vehicles at night when charging times are less relevant. The super-fast charging could also pose some safety concerns and might affect the long-term durability of the battery, writes Bloomberg.

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By Hongyu Xiao

The road ahead for Canada’s transition to electric vehicles is not without challenges, but the opportunity remains clear. While uncertainty lingers around United States trade policies, the question for Canada is how to drive forward.

The global shift to electric vehicles (EVs) is accelerating. Staying the course will bring economic benefits, lower transportation costs, and improve energy security. With smart policies in place, Canada can ensure the continued growth of its EV industry, and secure its place in the future of clean transportation.

Beyond positioning Canada as a global leader, the shift to EVs offers tangible benefits for consumers, businesses, and workers. Lower operating costs mean drivers and fleet operators will save thousands of dollars over the lifetime of a vehicle. A stronger domestic EV industry will create stable, well-paying jobs across the supply chain, from mining and battery production to manufacturing and maintenance. Investing in EVs will also enhance Canada’s energy security by reducing reliance on imported oil, and leveraging our abundant domestic electricity resources instead.

Keeping EVs affordable and Canada competitive

Now more than ever, Canada must chart its own path. Policies that reduce costs for consumers and provide certainty for manufacturers will be key to keeping transportation affordable, and strengthening our auto sector.

The federal government has taken significant steps to grow Canada’s EV industry by helping buyers, and by supporting manufacturers through tax incentives, funding for manufacturing and placing tariffs on Chinese-made EVs. As an auto manufacturing hub, Canada benefits from these measures—they strengthen the EV supply chain, and help keep domestically produced vehicles within reach for Canadians. Positioning Canadian manufacturers to reduce reliance on the U.S., and become globally competitive means going all-in with EVs as they gain momentum in global markets.

A strong EV market requires a mix of measures to help Canada diversify

There are multiple approaches Canada can take. Sales targets, incentives, and supply-side measures to bolster market certainty in EVs all play a role. For example, the federal government has introduced EV sales targets that require auto manufacturers and importers to meet annual sales thresholds for zero-emission vehicles. Canada’s EV market is well on its way to achieving those targets—EVs were 18.9 per cent of all light-duty vehicle sales in the fourth quarter of 2024, just 1.1 percentage points shy of the 2026 target of 20 per cent. This kind of market certainty allows automakers to plan their investments, ensures buyers have access to EVs, and supports the development of a strong resale market.

Other measures, such as greenhouse gas emissions regulations for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs), will accelerate adoption and stimulate investment across Canada’s auto industry. Unlike light-duty vehicle manufacturing, MHDVs have strong Canadian-based manufacturers, with companies like Solus Advanced Materials opening a plant in Quebec. Clear and ambitious standards in this sector will help create a stable investment environment, allowing Canadian manufacturers to lead in producing electric trucks and buses.

Seizing Canada’s EV opportunity

Despite current threats from the U.S., Canada’s auto sector must take this opportunity to position itself as a global leader in the EV transition, including manufacturing, infrastructure, and technology. The shift to EVs is well underway in global markets, and Canada must keep pace. Strengthening our domestic EV supply chain will reduce reliance on the U.S., ensure stable jobs for Canadian workers, and make EVs more affordable and accessible.

The key is to move swiftly. By implementing the right policies, Canada can secure investment, create good jobs, and build a strong and competitive EV industry for years to come. The government has already laid the groundwork with proven policies, and we must continue on this path to maintain momentum.

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By Ciarán Healy, Oil Market Analyst
Rebecca McKimm, China Programme Manager
Ivo Walinga, China Programme Officer

As the Chinese economy and domestic transport sector undergo significant transformations, demand for the most widely consumed oil-based fuels – including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel – declined marginally in 2024. What’s more, China’s combined consumption of these fuels of almost 8.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) was 2.5 per cent below 2021 levels and only narrowly above those in 2019.

With the overall Chinese economy pivoting from manufacturing to services-based growth and as the adoption of electric vehicles expands in the transport sector, the data strongly suggest that the combustion uses of petroleum fuel in China have already reached a plateau and that the potential for future growth may be very limited.

Overall Chinese oil demand continues to increase, with growth dominated by petrochemical feedstocks, which are converted into plastics and fibres rather than burnt as fuels. Oil demand for petrochemicals in China rose by almost 5 per cent in 2024 as new plants came online, a trend that is expected to continue in the next few years. However, while China was responsible for more than 60 per cent of global increase in overall oil demand between 2013 and 2023, it represented less than 20 per cent of last year’s rise, largely as a result of its slowdown in fuel use.

Underpinned by China’s national policies focused on energy security, industrial activity and controlling pollution, incentives for electric and low-emissions vehicles have boosted adoption, significantly reigning in fuel demand. The Chinese government aims to reach a peak in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions before 2030 and for the economy to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Forecasts by the Economics & Technology Research Institute of China National Oil Corporation (CNPC ETRI), are slightly more bearish than ours and show total oil demand reaching a turning point in 2025 and declining thereafter.

Last year’s decline in China’s combustion of petroleum fuels happened despite a 12 per cent surge in jet/kerosene use, as air travel completed its post-lockdown rebound. We expect another narrow decline in total fuel use in 2025, a trend that is likely to accelerate over the medium term. This would likely result in a plateau in total China oil demand later this decade, despite burgeoning demand for petrochemical feedstocks.

Structural shifts in China’s economy are reducing fuel requirements

A plateau in China’s demand for fuels is significant, and unusual, because it is taking place a middle-income country that continues to post robust GDP growth. Given the size of its economy, China uses relatively little fuel compared with higher-income countries. China’s demand for all three products combined remains lower than US demand for gasoline alone. This is despite very strong growth during the 2010s in Chinese fuel demand, which rose by 75 per cent between 2009 and 2019. By comparison, fuel use in other major emerging markets continues to climb, with both Indian and Brazilian consumption growing by about 4 per cent last year.

The disparity in consumption levels is highlighted by the fact that the OECD, whose member countries collectively match China’s total population, used four times as much of these products as China did in 2024. There is no historical precedent for a levelling off in the fuel demand growth trajectory at this stage. Perhaps the closest historical analogue is Korea’s mid-90’s stabilisation in consumption amid rapid GDP growth, which took place when per capita fuel use was more than three times higher than it is in China today. Korean fuel demand has scarcely grown in the decades since, even as the country moved into high-income status. Such muted developments highlight the limitations in making oil demand projections based on convergence in outcomes between very different economies.

The slowdown in fuel consumption growth has followed a combination of structural changes in the Chinese economy and the rapid deployment of alternative transport technologies. The economy is undergoing a period of moderating growth and restructuring. China reported GDP growth of 5 per cent in 2024 (4.2 per cent in nominal terms), lagging its pre-pandemic trend and led by high-tech and clean energy manufacturing growth (9 per cent in 2024). A slump in the construction sector, historically a cornerstone of gasoil use, alongside sluggish consumer spending, which is closely associated with personal mobility and gasoline demand, has meant that recent GDP gains have been less fuel-intensive than in the past.

China’s transport technologies already reshaping demand for oil

Electric vehicles currently account for about half of car sales in China, undercutting 3.5 per cent of new fuel demand in 2024, while the use of compressed and liquified natural gas in road freight displaced another 2 per cent. China has been providing subsidy support to purchases of so-called “new energy vehicles” (NEVs) since 2009, promoting its automotive manufacturing industry, and reducing air pollution. A trade-in policy, introduced in April 2024 and expanded in 2025, continues to drive growth in China’s EV sales. Meanwhile, highly competitive Chinese automakers are also making gains in international markets.

There has also been a substantial expansion in the provision of public transport, especially high-speed rail (HSR). Under the current 14^th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), China aims to expand its HSR network, already the largest in the world, to 50 000 km by the end of 2025 and to 60 000 km by 2030. This year, China State Railway Group plans to invest CNY 590 billion (USD 80.8 billion) into new railway infrastructure, with the expansion of HSR seen as complementary to rising EV use. Total kilometres travelled by long-distance rail passengers rose by 7 per cent between 2019 and 2024. Over the same period, the use of urban metro networks increased by 17 per cent – or more than 10 million journeys per day – according to MetroDB data. Combined, these trends likely incrementally reduced 2024 demand by a further 1.5 per cent.

In all, various forms of substitution have avoided oil demand growth of around 15 per cent (or 1.2 million barrels per day) in China since 2019 and will likely avoid a further 5 per cent this year, mainly due to accelerating EV penetration. These trends have major impacts on the use of premium fuel products, which are central to refinery profitability. In contrast, most petrochemical feedstock demand is generally priced at a discount to crude oil or supplied from natural gas liquids (NGLs).

These shifting demand patterns create pressure on refiners, in China and elsewhere, as well as on underlying crude oil demand, while simultaneously providing an indispensable outlet and substantial growth opportunities for soaring US NGL production. In this respect, developments in China prefigure important aspects of our medium-term oil market projections.

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