By Mitchell Beer

With the federal government expected to release its long-awaited national electricity strategy this week, Canada could be in line to lose $110 to $220 billion in new investment and 40,000 to 80,000 direct jobs if it fails to deliver a clean power grid “at the scale and speed that industry and investors need,” a recent report concludes.

While senior executives across Canada’s finance, technology, heavy industry, mining, and clean energy sectors recognize that clean power is essential, it’s only worth pursuing “when it is predictable, cost-competitive, and available at scale,” states the report released earlier this month by the Shareholder Association for Research and Education (SHARE).

Canada enters the energy transition with an advantage over many other industrialized nations, with about 85% of its power coming from non-emitting sources, consultants at Dunsky Energy + Climate report. Clean economy sectors like electric vehicles, batteries, and the grid itself have received about $65 billion in new investment, producing at least 26,000 direct jobs and tens of thousands more across related supply chains.

That investment is taking place at a moment when access to electricity is central to site selection and capital allocation for new projects, adding asset value and enabling market access for new investments in tech, artificial intelligence, and mining.

But “Canada’s clean electricity edge is under threat,” Dunsky warns. “Grid constraints, permitting delays, and interconnection uncertainty are already slowing or cancelling investments.”

Canada faces those challenges in a moment of intensifying global competition, the report adds, with other jurisdictions “rapidly decarbonize their grids with the aim of attracting clean investment.”

The national electricity strategy has been in development for some time. Insiders say its release is now just days away, and it’s expected to focus on east-west transmission, Indigenous leadership, and better collaboration among provinces. Earlier this month, Ontario announced a “major nation-building milestone” when 10 provinces and territories—everyone but Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Nunavut—agreed to work together on new transmission infrastructure.

There was no official word on the national strategy’s release as this story went to virtual press. But The Energy Mix has learned that it may appear as soon as this Wednesday or Thursday and feature federal investment in grid interties between provinces, though the form of investment—through loans, grants, federal ownership, of investment tax credits—remains to be seen. The strategy is expected to remain silent on the fate of the federal Clean Electricity Regulations, and it isn’t clear whether it will address the role of gas-fired electricity or carbon capture and storage on the grid.

The Dunsky report calls for long-term coordination and policy certainty across federal, provincial, and territorial governments to make permitting and grid interconnections faster and more transparent, all with the goal of accelerating the buildout of clean generation, storage, and transmission. It points to Indigenous partnerships as an element that could “unlock project development”, and stresses the role of demand-side solutions to “lower system costs, defer infrastructure, and improve reliability—especially for fast-growing data centre and industrial loads.”

SHARE Public Affairs Director Jennifer Story said the consultants sought interviews with executives whose companies will need reliable supplies of green energy. “There’s a growing number of investors and companies that are hearing back from regulators, hearing back from provincial decision-makers, that they’re in the queue or that their needs can’t be met.,” she told The Energy Mix in an interview.

“If Canada is really serious about creating new opportunities in our economy to buffer the effects of the worsening relationship with the United States, this is a really obvious place to do it,” she added. “We’ll certainly be looking to see whether or not [the federal electricity strategy] goes the distance to meet this need.”

With net-zero commitments and carbon pricing systems in place in 10 of Canada’s 11 biggest trading partners—the U.S. is the outlier—Story said faster buildout of a clean electricity grid could be an essential nation-building project to protect Canadian sovereignty.

“It does tie in to trade strategy,” she told The Mix. “Some countries and regions are imposing carbon border adjustments, for example. Responding to that reality means again demonstrating clearly that we can supply our issuers, our publicly-traded and private companies, with the clean power they need to not have those border adjustments be a barrier to market access in other parts of the world.”

And to attract climate-aligned investment, “we also need to demonstrate to those investors that the companies they’re considering, the projects they’re considering, have not just green but also reliable, affordable, consistently available clean power.”

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The report highlights a rapidly evolving energy system, driven by rising electricity demand, continued reliance on natural gas, and the growing complexity of balancing affordability, reliability, and emissions reductions.

The CER’s Energy Futures analysis is not a prediction, but rather a series of scenarios exploring how Canada’s energy mix could evolve under different economic, technological, and policy conditions.

Still, one conclusion is clear: electricity demand is expected to surge, while natural gas remains a key part of the energy system—even as the country works toward lower emissions.

That finding aligns with a growing body of industry and policy analysis pointing to the same dual trend.

Electricity demand in Canada is rising quickly, driven by electrification of transportation, industry, and buildings. A recent industry report described the situation as requiring Canada to “build big again,” warning that the country may need to dramatically expand its grid to keep pace with demand growth.

At the same time, reliability concerns are emerging. A North American reliability assessment cited by Global News found Canada’s power grid is under increasing strain, with demand expected to outpace new supply in several regions later this decade.

Against that backdrop, natural gas is expected to continue playing a significant role, particularly as a flexible source of power generation that can support intermittent renewables like wind and solar.

Canada’s broader energy landscape is already moving in that direction. Federal data shows renewable electricity is growing, but oil and natural gas remain foundational to the economy and energy system.

The CER report suggests this dual-track evolution—more electricity, but continued natural gas use—will define Canada’s energy transition over the coming decades.

That reflects a broader shift in how policymakers and industry are framing the transition: not as a simple replacement of fossil fuels, but as a more complex transformation of the entire energy system.

Recent federal policy signals point the same way. Ottawa has emphasized the need to invest in grid infrastructure and energy systems to maintain affordability and reliability while transitioning to lower-carbon sources.

The challenge, analysts say, is scale.

Electrification alone could require doubling or even tripling parts of Canada’s electricity system, while maintaining reliability during extreme weather events and peak demand periods. At the same time, natural gas infrastructure continues to expand in some regions to meet growing demand and support economic activity.

This creates a tension at the heart of Canada’s energy future.

On one hand, electricity—particularly from low-emission sources—is expected to do much of the heavy lifting in reducing emissions. On the other, natural gas remains critical for reliability, industrial use, and export opportunities.

The CER’s outlook underscores that both trends are likely to unfold simultaneously.

It also reinforces a key message for policymakers: the transition will require significant investment, regulatory reform, and coordination across provinces and sectors.

Canada’s energy system is already diverse and regionally fragmented, with provinces relying on different mixes of hydro, nuclear, fossil fuels, and renewables. Integrating these systems—while expanding capacity and reducing emissions—will be a major undertaking.

The CER’s modelling highlights the uncertainty involved. Long-term energy forecasts depend on assumptions about technology costs, climate policy, global markets, and consumer behaviour, all of which can change rapidly.

Even so, the direction of travel is becoming clearer.

Electricity is poised to become the backbone of a lower-emissions economy. Natural gas, meanwhile, is expected to remain an important—if evolving—part of the mix.

For Canada, the question is no longer whether the energy system will change, but how quickly—and whether the country can build the infrastructure needed to support that transformation.

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By Jody MacPherson

Facing community outcry over the location and regulatory rejection, Synapse Real Estate Group says it will continue to pursue its plans for a gas-powered plant and “Canada’s largest” data centre in the small farming town of Olds, Alberta.

Alberta’s utility regulator rejected the company’s application for a 1.4-gigawatt generating plant to supply the proposed artificial intelligence (AI) data centre, which would use as much power as one million homes. The gas plant would generate three times the power of Suncor’s Firebag cogeneration plant.

The Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC) issued [pdf] the decision in a letter to Synapse CEO Jason van Gaal on March 6, citing “significant deficiencies” in environmental evaluations, noise impact assessments, and “particularly” the company’s failure to consider concerns from those “directly and adversely affected by a proposed development.”

“I think, ultimately, the AUC wants to make sure that we’re communicating effectively with the community and receiving feedback, and we’re absolutely doing our best to do that,” van Gaal told The Albertan in an interview.

Van Gaal replied to The Energy Mix’s questions with a prepared statement, writing, “the commission made clear this decision does not assess the merits of the project and that Synapse can reapply once the required information is completed. We are reviewing the guidance and will work with regulators and the community to ensure the next application fully meets those requirements.”

More than 40 residents of Olds submitted objections to the Synapse power plant, citing concerns about noise, mental health impacts, health effects of air pollution, water usage, property values, stress on municipal infrastructure, electronic waste, chemicals, and affordability for low-income residents.

But Olds town council welcomed the province’s second-largest gas-powered plant to use 300 acres of farmland within the town’s eastern boundary, reclassifying it as “light industrial.” Olds is about 90 kilometres north of Calgary, and has a renowned agricultural college, beloved locally for its botanic gardens and wetlands.

“I don’t believe it is ‘light industrial’ zoning,” Janey Olson, an 18-year resident of Olds, told The Mix. “If you go by the description of what heavy and light are, this is heavy industrial.”

Olson said a group of residents who attended the town’s zoning meeting had asked the council to “please table that decision until we know more,” but the zoning decision still went ahead.

The Mix emailed Olds Mayor Dan Daley about the Synapse project zoning two weeks ago but he has not yet responded. This story will be updated with any new information he provides.

The town had declared the company’s development permit complete the same day the AUC decision was issued. Synapse has now withdrawn its development permit application, according to the Town of Olds website.

In its letter, the AUC said the company could reapply in the future, but detailed several deficiencies:

• The participant involvement program lacked detail and sufficient information;

• Information in the environmental evaluation document was provided in draft format;

• Field studies on wildlife and wetlands were incomplete;

• The noise impact assessment did not include the project’s 600 backup diesel generators;

• The plan was missing a reclamation security plan; and

• The company filed an incomplete listing of other approvals required.

Synapse stated in its application that the federal Impact Assessment Act did not apply to the project. But the AUC said Synapse would have had to submit a project description to the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada to determine whether the Act applies, adding that any new fossil-fired power generating facility with production capacity of 200 megawatts or more falls under the Act.

On March 9, Olds Chief Administrative Officer Brent Williams said he would be meeting with the company and the AUC separately in the coming days.

For some residents, the AUC rejection brings an opportunity to pause and take stock in what has been a busy couple of months since finding out about the proposal.

Eric Carlson, who lives about 600 metres from the proposed site with his wife and three children, told The Mix he had full trust in the AUC’s process and appreciated the care the commission took to ensure applications meet the required standards before moving forward.

But he is now preparing to go through the process again, since Synapse is pressing on with the power plant in its same location.

Rachel Sorenson, whose home is directly across the street from the project, said she wouldn’t be able to stay if the project goes ahead. A retired paramedic, she told The Mix she was elated when she heard of the AUC decision, but that was short-lived when she found out Synapse would be reapplying.

“I love Olds, it is a beautiful close-knit community,” she said, “but there are no health benefits to living next to a power plant.” She has serious concerns for herself and one of her grandsons who suffers from asthma. Sorenson believes the Synapse plant is not appropriate within town limits.

Edmonton-based resident doctor Julia Sawatzky, a board member and Alberta regional co-chair for the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment (CAPE), told the Mix in September that nitrogen oxides from gas turbines are released into local communities, causing air pollution that contributes to respiratory diseases.

“We know that nitrogen oxides can contribute to both the development of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,” she said. “And there’s also small particulate matter emitted from gas turbines which is similar to what is in wildfire smoke or other really visible heavy air pollution.”

The particulate matter is so small that it can lodge deep in the lungs and also cross over into the bloodstream, contributing to high blood pressure and causing heart attacks and strokes, Sawatzky said.

Gas turbines also emit volatile organic compounds that are known carcinogens, putting people at risk, or higher risk, of various types of cancer.

“It’s actually an environmental justice issue because the projects and the impacts and the harms are being put in places far away from places like Edmonton and Calgary where the decisions tend to be made,” Sawatzky added.

Sorenson said another citizen-led meeting March 13 will a chance for Olds residents to gather to discuss how the power plant and data centre will affect their daily lives. Olson said she’s written a letter to Premier Danielle Smith and, along with several other residents, met with the local Member of the Legislative Assembly, Tara Sawyer. She has questions about cumulative impacts on the regional water supply and whether the province is doing its due diligence on AI data centre developments, but said she has yet to receive answers.

“We’re not a big city, we are a small town, and I don’t remember when we agreed as a small town to become a tech hub for the province or for our council,” she said. “I just don’t remember that conversation happening.”

Synapse’s public statement about the setback concluded with: “We have taken the AUC’s guidance and our community’s feedback to heart, and we are pleased to launch www.synapsedatacenter.com/we-are-listening/ as a first step in facilitating our long-term dialogue.”

The web page includes a series of videos to answer common questions about the project. When Olson watched one of the videos, she noticed it had a “strange voiceover.”

“I might have been tongue in cheek, but I said, Jason, you didn’t hire a local voice actor, you hired an AI?”

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